Super El Nino in 2026: climatologists expect the most powerful anomaly in 150 years

Scientists are warning of a possible record-breaking increase in the El Nino climate phenomenon, which is forming in the Pacific Ocean. According to forecasts by climatologists, it may become the strongest in the history of observations and affect the weather, ecosystems and economies of different regions of the world. All the details are in the Izvestia article.

The Pacific Ocean goes beyond the usual scenarios

According to an analysis by climatologist Zek Hausfather from the independent scientific organization Berkeley Earth, published on The Climate Brink, the current El Nino may be the strongest in the period of reliable observations.

The scientist studied the forecasts of 14 climate models and hundreds of scenarios for the development of events. According to their estimates, the temperature in the area of Nino 3.4 may rise by about 3.6 degrees above normal, significantly exceeding the previous record set during the 2015-2016 El Nino.

The researchers note that this difference is unusual: over the past 150 years, the gap between the strongest El Nino events has been significantly smaller. At the same time, scientists emphasize that forecasts remain difficult, since there are practically no such powerful analogues in the history of observations.

On the crest of an anomaly: Is the world facing a new Super El Nino

An unusual climatic phenomenon is expected in the summer of 2026

Why El Nino can change the weather all over the planet

The main feature of the phenomenon is that the effects are not limited to the Pacific Ocean. The more the ocean warms, the more noticeable the changes in atmospheric circulation that affect precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events in different parts of the world.

Scientists expect that an intensified El Nino may lead to an increase in the number of weather anomalies. We are talking about droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others. Experts are already recording some of the consequences: for example, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, there is a decrease in fish catches, and the Peruvian authorities imposed restrictions on the catch of anchovies.

In addition, the combination of a strong El Nino with ongoing global warming could affect global temperature records. According to the researchers, the additional heat released by the ocean can increase the likelihood that 2027 will be the hottest year on record.

Scientists have expressed concern about the record heating of the surface of the world's oceans

From the ocean to the economy: what is the threat of a climate anomaly

Strong El Nino events have already led to serious consequences for different countries in the past. Changes in temperature and precipitation affect agriculture, water resources and the state of natural ecosystems.

The researchers believe that the new record-breaking episode may also have economic consequences. It is estimated that the damage caused by extreme weather related to El Nino could lead to significant losses in the global economy in the coming years.

At the same time, scientists are careful in their estimates: the models show an unusually strong scenario, but the exact intensity of the phenomenon will become clear only as it develops. The main difficulty lies in the fact that the climate system is faced with conditions for which researchers have almost no historical analogues.