Scientists have expressed concern about the record heating of the surface of the world's oceans

June 2026 became the record temperature for the surface of the World Ocean in the entire history of observations for this month. Almost simultaneously, scientists have confirmed the beginning of a new climatic phenomenon, El Nino, which can significantly change weather conditions on different continents in the coming months.

Ocean warming itself is not uncommon, but the current situation is of particular interest to researchers. According to them, the natural climate cycle is developing against the background of a planet that is already heated due to climate change, which means that its consequences may be more noticeable than in previous years. Why the record ocean temperature raises so many questions, how El Nino affects the weather around the world and what scientists expect next — in the Izvestia article.

The ocean has entered "uncharted territory"

According to the European climate service Copernicus, on June 21, the average surface temperature of the world's oceans reached +20.57 degrees, which was the highest value ever recorded for this time of year.

Experts note that this June has significantly exceeded all previous figures for the beginning of summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of such unusual dynamics, scientists have even begun to use the expression "uncharted territory" — the situation is developing beyond what has been observed in the entire history of modern measurements.

The equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean are warming up especially rapidly — this is where El Nino is forming. According to the international monitoring system, the water temperature in the Nino 3.4 region has already exceeded the climatic norm by more than 0.5 degrees, which is considered an official sign of the onset of this phenomenon. At the same time, the spread of warm waters to the east of the Pacific Ocean is being recorded, a process that scientists call one of the key signs of an increased El Nino.

The importance of these observations is explained simply: the ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat that accumulates in the Earth's climate system due to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, it is the temperature of the sea surface that is considered one of the most reliable indicators of ongoing climate change. When the ocean begins to heat up rapidly, this inevitably affects the state of the atmosphere, the circulation of air masses and the amount of energy available for the formation of extreme weather events.

What is El Nino and why are climatologists afraid of it?

El Niño is a natural phase of the ENSO (El Niño — Southern Oscillation) climate cycle that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In normal years, steady trade winds drive warm surface water to the coasts of Australia and Indonesia, while cooler deep waters rise off the western coast of South America. During El Nino, this system begins to work differently: the trade winds weaken, and the accumulated warm water gradually shifts back to the east Pacific Ocean.

At first glance, it may seem that we are talking only about a local change in water temperature. In fact, El Nino affects the entire atmospheric circulation of the planet. Warm air flows change the location of precipitation zones, rearrange the movement of jet streams and affect the heat distribution between the ocean and the atmosphere. That is why the effects of a single process in the Pacific Ocean can be felt thousands of kilometers away — from South America to Africa, Europe and Asia.

On the crest of an anomaly: Is the world facing a new Super El Nino

An unusual climatic phenomenon is expected in the summer of 2026

During a strong El Nino, some regions face prolonged droughts, while others, on the contrary, suffer from torrential rains and floods. For example, the west coast of South America often receives significantly more precipitation, Australia and Indonesia are at risk of experiencing a drier season, and winter weather patterns are changing in some areas of North America. That is why the World Meteorological Organization is closely monitoring the development of this phenomenon and regularly updates global forecasts.

According to their data, the current El Nino is developing against the background of an exceptionally warm ocean. This means that the climate system already contains a large amount of accumulated heat even before the natural cycle has fully entered the active phase. It is precisely this coincidence that is of the greatest interest to researchers today, since it can enhance the influence of El Nino on the global weather.

Why scientists aren't worried about El Nino itself

El Nino itself is not an unusual phenomenon. This climate cycle existed long before the appearance of man and repeats regularly every few years. However, today researchers are increasingly saying that the main danger is not itself, but its combination with long-term global warming.

Simply put, El Nino develops in conditions where the ocean and atmosphere have already accumulated a record amount of heat, which means that the effects of the natural phenomenon may be much stronger than before.

That is why experts pay special attention to the temperature of the ocean surface. Seawater gradually accumulates heat, and then begins to release it to the atmosphere. This process can enhance the formation of heavy rains, increase the likelihood of prolonged heat waves, influence the formation of tropical cyclones, and cause large—scale marine heat waves - periods of abnormally high water temperatures that cause serious damage to coral reefs, fisheries, and entire marine ecosystems.

The extra heat in the ocean affects not only the weather, but also the climate system as a whole. A higher water temperature accelerates evaporation, increases the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and thus creates conditions for more intense precipitation.

At the same time, the location of atmospheric flows is changing in some regions, which is why other territories, on the contrary, face prolonged droughts. That is why the effects of El Nino are rarely the same: for some countries it means the risk of flooding, for others it means water shortages and an increased likelihood of wildfires.

Forecasters warn of the onset of a strong El Nino phenomenon. What is the threat of this

According to the European Copernicus service, in the spring of 2026, the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean approached record levels. At the same time, marine heat waves and early periods of extreme heat were observed in different regions of the world. Although scientists do not associate each individual weather event solely with El Nino, they emphasize that such processes are becoming more likely in the context of ongoing ocean warming.

What will happen next

So far, researchers are in no hurry to make unambiguous predictions about the strength of the current El Nino. Such phenomena can vary markedly in duration and intensity, and their effect depends on many factors, from ocean temperature to atmospheric conditions.

At the same time, scientists note that it is much more important to follow the general trend rather than individual records. For several years in a row, the world's oceans have maintained unusually high temperatures, and each new observation period turns out to be one of the warmest in the history of measurements. According to climatologists, it is the accumulation of heat in the ocean that is now considered one of the most reliable indicators of ongoing climate change.

The current El Nino is unlikely to be the cause of all the extreme weather events that may occur in the coming months. However, it can enhance existing climate processes, making some of them more visible. That is why scientists consider it not as an exceptional event, but as a kind of indicator of how natural cycles begin to interact with the long-term warming of the planet.

Record ocean temperatures by themselves do not mean a climate catastrophe. But it reminds us of how closely the ocean, the atmosphere, and life on land are interconnected. Any change in the temperature of the sea surface gradually affects the weather, the state of ecosystems and the lives of millions of people. That is why scientists consider the current record not as another statistical anomaly, but as an important signal that the Earth's climate system continues to change — and these changes are becoming more noticeable.