Real protest: Iranians demand from the authorities to stabilize the national currency
A new wave of protest has swept Iran. Mass demonstrations broke out in several major cities at once. The reason for the tension was the aggravation of the economic crisis: by the end of 2025, the exchange rate of the national currency fell to a record low of 1.45 million rials per US dollar, and inflation exceeded 40% (according to some estimates, close to the 50% mark). Observers describe the protests that began on December 28 as the "largest" in the last few years, but there is no serious threat to the stability of the Iranian government, at least at this stage.
The tension equation
The focus of tension this time was Tehran. In a Large Bazaar, merchants staged a mass strike, demanding "decisive action" from the authorities to stabilize the rial, stop inflation and prevent rising prices for essential goods. Later, similar demonstrations began in Mashhad, Shiraz and Isfahan. By the end of the day, their "geography" covered more than a dozen cities. Students also joined the speeches — the main driving force in the protests of recent years, and in the statements of the demonstrators, in addition to calls for economic reforms, slogans about the reform of the political system also sounded.
As Murad Sadigzade, president of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies and a visiting lecturer at the Higher School of Economics, noted in a conversation with Izvestia, mass demonstrations like today's are not new to Iran. Tensions here periodically flare up in waves, and socio-economic problems are most often the trigger. According to him, new variables have emerged in the Iranian "tension equation" this time.
— A "package" of factors has accumulated, which has warmed up the situation more than usual. The consequences of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 added to nervousness, increased sanctions and financial pressure, and generally increased the sensitivity of the system to shocks. At the same time, structural economic problems and obvious climatic and resource stresses were superimposed: the historical drought, depletion of water resources and the risk of water supply disruptions were already becoming an independent source of local protests and general irritation of society. In this context, the fall of the rial and the rise in prices are becoming not just news of the financial market, but a symbol of the fact that the "contract" between the state and society is working worse, the expert emphasized.
Personnel changes
At the initial stages, the Iranian authorities tried to demonstrate to the population their willingness to compromise: Abdolnaser Hemmati was promptly appointed to the post of head of the Central Bank. In the past, he was the Minister of Economy of the Republic. His appointment took place on December 29, the second day of the protests. And Tehran has placed a special emphasis on the tasks of stabilizing the economy.
Newly appointed Head of the Central Bank of Iran Abdolnaser Hemmati talks to reporters after a government meeting in Tehran, December 31, 2025
"I expect <from you...> special and maximum attention to the organization and management of the foreign exchange market, elimination of imbalances and control of liquidity growth in order to support economic growth, preserve and increase the value of the national currency," the presidential decree says.
Despite the fact that official Tehran has high hopes for Hemmati, the reputation of the newly minted head of the Central Bank is mixed among the people. Among other things, he became the first minister in the government of Masoud Peseshkian, who was removed from office as a result of impeachment, including for economic miscalculations. For this reason, the "Iranian street" did not perceive the replacement of the regulator as a real compromise measure, and the protests continued.
Moreover, sporadic clashes between government forces and protesters have become more violent over time. For example, the Fars news agency reported on December 30 that police opened fire on demonstrators in the city of Lordegan, killing two people. Another fatal collision occurred a day later in Isfahan. By the end of the day on January 2, the death toll had increased to six, according to The Guardian newspaper. About 40 more were arrested by the police and the Basij militia.
At the same time, the authorities do not rely on power tools. On the contrary, back on December 30, the Office of the President instructed the Interior Minister to start a dialogue with the protesters in order to avoid a lot of bloodshed and "propose real solutions."
The United States is coming to the rescue
Instability in Iran has not been ignored by the United States: President Donald Trump has threatened the republic's authorities with consequences. "If Iran shoots and brutally kills peaceful protesters, which is a common occurrence for it, then the United States of America will come to their aid. We are fully prepared for action," he wrote on the Truth Social network.
Trump's line was continued in Israel: the Foreign Ministry published a series of posts on its Persian-language account with words of support for the Iranian protesters. Gila Gamliel, Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology of Israel, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, Head of the Ministry of National Security, also called for support for the Voice of Freedom. At the same time, the Prime Minister of the Jewish state, Benjamin Netanyahu, preferred not to express support for the demonstrators directly, although he stated in one of his speeches that changes in Iran should "come from within."
Tehran reacted coldly, promising to respond asymmetrically — especially if external players continue to escalate the situation. "We distinguish between the position of protesting merchants and the actions of destructive elements, and Trump must understand that U.S. interference in [Iran's] internal affairs will destabilize the entire region and destroy American interests there," said Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.
At the same time, the authorities organized "counter—demonstrations" - marches of supporters of the Islamic Republic took place in Isfahan and Hamadan and gathered several tens of thousands of people. However, Tehran has not yet succeeded in completely replacing the "protest picture".
Prospects of the situation
According to the Iranian Interior Ministry, high tensions remain only in two provinces (Ilam and Lorestan), while in the rest (including the capital region) the authorities managed to limit themselves to minor clashes with demonstrators or bring the protest wave to a state of decline. Experts tend to explain the relative stabilization of the situation by the decentralization characteristic of the Iranian protests: Farhad Ibrahimov, a lecturer at the Economics faculty of the P. Lumumba RUDN University, notes that the "street opposition" lacks a common leader. Including in exile.
— There is the so-called "crown Prince" of Iran, Shahzadeh Reza Shahpehlevi, who says that he is ready to lead the country when the government changes there. Although not a single person, even of the most liberal views in Iran, respects him or perceives him as an adequate leader capable of leading the state, the orientalist emphasizes.
However, the absence of a public figure does not significantly narrow the space of action for Tehran's opponents. And the United States, as Murad Sadigzade notes, is likely to continue to raise the stakes with statements and pressures, holding the option of escalation as a deterrent, while Israel, with favorable dynamics for it, will try to expand the field of covert influence.
There are also options for "rocking the situation" with a delayed effect. Thus, political scientist Dastan Tokoldoshev emphasizes that the continued presence in Iran of a fairly wide network of Israeli intelligence, Mossad, gives Washington the opportunity to spread and support destructive narratives (even taking into account the purges that followed the June war).
"Given the fairly close cooperation between American and Israeli structures, the mentioned service is of increased importance to the United States as a support mechanism for monitoring and analyzing the Iranian 'internal network,'" he notes.
Anyway, it is premature to talk about overcoming the peak point of the protests in Iran. The situation inside the country remains uncertain, and any "excesses on the ground" (especially in ethnically diverse provinces) — as well as Tehran's demonstration of excessive compliance — can become a starting point for the expansion of the crisis and its internationalization.
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