Panic attacks: Why Israel fears an Iranian attack
Israel suspected Iran of preparing for attacks on Tel Aviv. The concerns are related to the large-scale military exercises conducted by the Islamic Republic. Experts believe that despite the weakening of Tehran after the 12-day war, the chances of a resumption of hostilities are not zero. Which side can attack first and whether to wait for the situation to escalate is in the Izvestia article.
Show of force
Since the beginning of December, Iran has been hosting the largest military exercises in recent years. The maneuvers were conducted in the Persian and Oman Gulfs. "We have sent a strong warning message to the American ships," the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commented on the exercises.
According to media reports, the Qadr-110 ballistic missile with a range of up to 2,000 km, as well as the latest Iranian Qadr-380 cruise missile, were used during military training. In addition, Qadr-303 ballistic missiles were used to practice strikes against targets in the waters of the Gulf of Oman, as well as drones for attacks on imaginary enemy bases.
Earlier this month, Tehran conducted the Sahand-2025 joint anti—terrorism exercises with the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The activity of the Iranian military has not been ignored, Axios notes, citing Israeli and American sources. According to the portal, Tel Aviv warned the US presidential administration that the Islamic Republic's missile exercises could serve as a cover for preparing for a real strike. The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, allegedly called on the White House to closely coordinate on the issue of defense.
Israeli intelligence is also concerned about Iran's possible restoration of missile capabilities. They fear that in the event of a conflict, the state will be able to simultaneously launch from 500 to 1,000 missiles. It is indicated that the pace of arms buildup is not yet considered critical, but the situation may worsen later.
These assessments are indirectly confirmed in Tehran itself, but they explain that the nature of the missile program is exclusively defensive. "After the war, Iran became stronger than ever. Weapons companies are working non-stop. Our factories producing powerful missiles have not stopped for a minute," said Abolfazl Shekarchi, General of the Iranian Army.
Defeated, but not broken
Iran's position in the region has been noticeably shaken after the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June this year. During the fighting, Tehran's nuclear program facilities were attacked, including factories in Fordo and Isfahan. The targets of the strikes also included military bases, air defense systems, launchers, warehouses and arsenals of weapons.
As Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, notes in an interview with Izvestia, Iran is currently rebuilding its army and military potential. According to him, this is done in order to feel more confident, since there are no guarantees that Israel, with the support of the United States, will not repeat such attacks.
Isfahan Uranium Enrichment Plant
—Iran needs to constantly demonstrate to its citizens that the state remains strong, capable and capable of functioning effectively,— says Denisov. — In recent years, we have observed a tendency for a certain narrowing of the range of influence of the Islamic republic, both in the region as a whole and in a number of fundamentally important points for it. Therefore, it is important to conduct such demonstrations on an ongoing basis.
After the events in Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, Tehran has really weakened, agrees Kamran Hasanov, a doctor of political science at the University of Salzburg. However, in his opinion, Israel does not intend to stop at these achievements.
— The goal of West Jerusalem is to weaken the enemy as much as possible, even to the point of destroying its military potential. Israel fears that Iran will recover and in the future the Jewish state will no longer be able to strike at its territory with impunity," the expert concluded.
These exercises have a more global task, adds RIAC expert Anton Mardasov in a conversation with Izvestia. Against the background of Israel's conflicting behavior in the region, Iran is seeking to position itself as a more pragmatic and responsible player. This is particularly important for Tehran in its dialogue with Saudi Arabia.
Who will flinch first
Experts doubt that the Iranian exercises indicate preparations for an immediate strike on Israel. If you look at the chronology of events, Iran has not been the initiator of attacks in recent years, Kamran Hasanov points out.
"The first strike followed the bombing of Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria, and all subsequent actions, including in the summer, were retaliatory," the political scientist explains.
The operation of the Iron Dome missile defense system in Tel Aviv during the missile attacks from Iran. June 18, 2025
According to analysts, West Jerusalem remains the key factor in a possible escalation. If Israel considers the moment favorable and receives a political signal from the United States, then it may well go into an armed clash. At the same time, Iran itself is currently not interested in escalation and will not initiate conflict or provocations.
"If we talk about why Israel is making such warnings to the United States, then the domestic political factor plays an important role here," Denis Denisov notes in an interview with Izvestia. — The Israeli Prime Minister is in a situation where the continuation of conflicts in the region becomes almost an alternative scenario for him. Apparently, he will continue to look for any opportunities to maintain tension and continue the confrontation.
However, according to Anton Mardasov, theoretically, a scenario in which Tehran attacks Israel is also possible: a new round of conflict could distract attention from the internal crisis in Iran related to the economic situation, as well as demonstrate the presence of a deterrent potential.
— However, in practice, in order to strike a country, it is necessary to restore at least the capabilities in the field of air defense and air situation control. In this context, the current maneuvers look more like measures to increase readiness for a possible Israeli strike," the expert concludes.
Nevertheless, according to him, the risk of a new escalation remains. It will increase significantly if Washington and Tehran fail to reach a consensus in the framework of negotiations, primarily on the Iranian nuclear program.
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