Nuclear impasse: The United States threatens Iran with new strikes

Tehran is restoring uranium enrichment facilities. Such suspicions were voiced by US President Donald Trump at a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The American leader warned that if these data were confirmed, Washington would deliver a "powerful blow" to the Islamic Republic. According to experts, the US requirements are largely impossible to fulfill: Iran cannot "reset" its nuclear program, since the country has already reached a critical level of knowledge in this area. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

New threats

US President Donald Trump has warned Tehran of new military strikes in the event of attempts to restore its nuclear program. "I admit that Iran is behaving incorrectly. It has not been confirmed yet, but if it is confirmed, then they are aware of the consequences. The consequences will be very serious, perhaps even more serious than last time," he said during a meeting with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida.

At the same time, the American leader made it clear that Washington is not interested in repeating large-scale and costly operations without good reason. He recalled that during the 12-day war, B-2 bombers were used, which take dozens of hours to fly. "We don't want to waste fuel on the B-2. Besides, it's a 37-hour round trip. I don't want to waste a lot of fuel on this," the politician argued.

Iran, in turn, insists on the peaceful nature of its nuclear program and declares its readiness for negotiations. However, in the case of aggression, the response will be harsh and proportionate. "The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to any aggression and oppression will be harsh and will make you regret it," Masoud Peseshkian, the country's president, wrote on the social network X.

These statements were made against the background of discussions about a possible escalation in the Middle East. Israel is concerned about the pace of Iran's recovery of ballistic missile stockpiles. Tel Aviv admits the possibility of a new confrontation with Tehran if the program is not stopped.

Russia calls on the parties to refrain from escalating the situation. "We ourselves continue to develop good, constructive relations with Tehran, including contributing to defusing tensions in this troubled region," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

A matter of principle

This summer, there was a sharp escalation between Israel and Iran, accompanied by a series of mutual strikes and operations against military infrastructure. About 14 Iranian nuclear research specialists were killed during the conflict, and the country's military facilities were hit.

The results of the 12-day war are still controversial. There is no reliable information about the level of destruction, and the Iranian side does not disclose this data, says Vladimir Belov (Yurtaev), head of the Global South Research Center.

— The situation is complicated for Tehran by the fact that, on the one hand, it does not disclose the extent of damage to its nuclear infrastructure, and on the other hand, this is what fuels suspicion and increases external pressure. A vicious circle is emerging: admitting serious damage would mean actually admitting defeat, in conditions where the war is not formally over," the Izvestia source notes.

Experts agree: it is now difficult to imagine that Tehran would agree to curtail its nuclear program. Firstly, it has become a symbol of national independence for the country. Secondly, Tehran launched its nuclear program back in the 1950s, and at the moment it is already a largely implemented project.

"The key argument is that Iran has reached a critical level of knowledge and competence," Belov recalls. — The country has an understanding of how a nuclear reactor is created, how the processes of uranium enrichment, storage and use are operated and regulated. It is this factor that should be taken into account when analyzing the situation around the Islamic Republic and the role of the "atomic issue" in regional dynamics.

The potential to create nuclear weapons, not to mention peaceful atom, remains, political analyst Kamran Hasanov also believes. Even if Iran had publicly abandoned the development of the program, it would not have led to a reduction in tension in the region.

— Tehran certainly has the right to develop peaceful nuclear energy. It is also a kind of insurance in case of increased external pressure. The program can be used as a deterrent in case of a critical situation. Moreover, Israel has such weapons, by the way, and no one requires it to be rejected or internationally monitored," the expert concluded.

The instability factor

The issue of possible escalation in the region remains open. Experts point out that anything can provoke it, especially given that the conflict has not been formally resolved.

— There is still a hypothetical possibility of resuming strikes: missile, aviation or with the use of drones. The risk of information provocations plays an essential role here. History has already known cases when the stuffing of unreliable data became the reason for large-scale military campaigns. Here we can recall the story of the "Powell test tube" in Iraq, after which there was no army, no regime, no Saddam Hussein in this country. But the test tube turned out to be empty," Belov reminded.

At the same time, Iran is experiencing a severe internal crisis, political analyst Ilgar Velizade added in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, economic problems are aggravated by social and environmental challenges. The country is facing an acute shortage of water resources and the shallowing of natural reservoirs, including Lake Urmia, which increases social tension.

— However, against the background of high tensions and Tehran's tough stance on the nuclear program, it is extremely difficult to talk about fundamental changes in the near future. The development of the situation will depend on a combination of external pressure, Iran's internal stability and the decisions of key regional and global players," the source told Izvestia.

The likelihood of escalation in the Middle East remains high as long as Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are in power at the same time, Hasanov also adds. According to him, the Israeli prime minister will do his best to weaken the Islamic Republic in order to overthrow the current authorities. And Trump will try to force the country to accept American conditions on the nuclear program.