The path to stability: what will be the exchange rates in 2026
2026 may be a year of significant weakening for the Russian ruble. Experts warn that a whole range of external and internal factors will lead to this. The exchange rates of foreign currencies will reverse and go up, which will be facilitated by a possible reduction in the Central Bank's key rate to 12%, a reduction in the trade surplus by reducing exports while imports recover, and a reduction in the limits on currency sales by the Central Bank under the budget rule. What consequences the weakening of the ruble will have is in the Izvestia article.
Strengthening the dollar's position
At the end of 2025, the ruble closed with a shock strengthening, having gained 25% against major currencies since the beginning of the year, which made it the strongest currency in the world, according to Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments. However, such a scenario is unlikely to happen again in 2026, he believes, expecting a reversal of foreign currencies upward, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble.
In the new year, the dollar-ruble exchange rate is likely to enter a phase of moderate stabilization after a period of noticeable strengthening of the Russian currency, which was observed a year earlier against the background of ultra-tight monetary policy, agrees investment adviser to the registry of the Central Bank Yulia Kuznetsova.
Among the factors of the reversal of foreign exchange rates, in addition to a possible reduction in the key rate, Zeltser cites a reduction in the trade surplus due to a decrease in exports while imports recover and a reduction in the limits on currency sales by the Central Bank under the budget rule.
In addition, pressure on the ruble will increase as domestic demand recovers, says Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. Export revenues, primarily from raw materials industries, the state of the balance of payments, fiscal policy parameters and the pace of monetary easing will play a significant role in this, the expert lists.
"Under these conditions, the dollar is likely to move in a range reflecting the balance between lower interest rates and continued restrictions on foreign trade," he believes.
Depending on the various scenarios, FC Finam identifies three possible scenarios for the formation of the dollar exchange rate.
— In our baseline scenario, we expect that the average exchange rate of the US currency in 2026 will be about 85 rubles, and the forecast for the end of the year for USD/RUB is around 92 rubles, — says Alexander Potavin, an analyst at the company.
In a negative scenario involving confrontation with the West and increased sanctions, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 98-100 rubles by the end of the year, the Izvestia interlocutor does not exclude. And if part of the sanctions on Russian exports are lifted and relations with the United States begin to normalize, the dollar exchange rate may recover to 85-88 rubles over the next year.
The exchange rate of the American currency in the range of 85 rubles is also expected by Vladimir Bragin, Director of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics at Alfa Capital Management Company. This is the basic scenario of an expert.
— The main factor will be the economic situation. A recession can strengthen the ruble to 100-110 rubles per dollar and above. If the scenario is favorable for the economy and the trend towards moving away from the export model continues, the exchange rate may drop to USD/RUB 70, he admits.
In turn, Zeltser predicts that the dollar will be above 85 rubles. However, he does not rule out that at some point the value of the US currency may approach the level of 90 rubles against the background of market volatility.
Euro and yuan: different logic
The dynamics of the euro exchange rate, according to Alexander Potavin, will strongly correlate with the USD/RUB currency pair adjusted for the value of the currency relative to the dollar. The expert expects that in the first half of 2026, the US currency will remain weak against the European one.
At the same time, the euro will continue to weaken against the dollar until the end of 2026 following the divergence of the dynamics of the US and European economies, confirms Vladimir Bragin. Its exchange rate in the EUR/USD currency pair may reach 1.15.
— A lot will also depend on the policy of the Fed and the ECB, key rates in the short term may affect currencies more strongly than the macro fund, — says the interlocutor of Izvestia.
Apart from internal factors, the euro will remain sensitive to the ECB's policy and the state of the eurozone economy, Yulia Kuznetsova agrees. All this means that the exchange rate of the European currency against the ruble may show a greater increase than the dollar against the ruble, Potavin believes. At the same time, Mikhail Zeltser does not exclude that the value of the euro may reach three digits.
The exchange rate of the yuan in 2026, in turn, will be formed according to a completely different logic, Denis Astafyev is sure. The Chinese currency will continue to strengthen its role as a key settlement currency in Russia's foreign trade.
"The dynamics of the yuan will be more closely linked to real trade flows and liquidity in the domestic market, which makes its exchange rate more stable, but at the same time sensitive to changes in the structure of imports and exports," the source told Izvestia.
This currency will continue to strengthen its position in settlements with Russia, which will contribute to its relative stability, confirms Kuznetsova.
"The yuan is already showing more restrained volatility compared to the dollar and the euro, and this trend is likely to continue," she notes.
The yuan exchange rate may strengthen against the dollar to 7.0–6.98 in early 2026, Potavin admits.
— In such a situation, in the event of a weakening of the ruble, the behavior of the CNY/RUB pair will outpace the dynamics of the dollar's growth against the ruble. In our baseline scenario, we expect the average exchange rate of the yuan in 2026 to be around 11.9 rubles, and the forecast for the end of the year is around 12.5 rubles," the Finam analyst points out.
Controlled fall
In general, in the future, in 2026, the ruble exchange rate will be influenced by a number of important factors that will contribute to its gradual weakening, Alexander Potavin believes.
First of all, the expert highlights the expected rate cut by the Bank of Russia. During the year, the Central Bank's key rate may be reduced to 12% from the current value of 16%.
— In terms of the behavior of the ruble exchange rate, the following logic works: the higher the rate, the fewer reasons to expect rubles to flow into foreign currency from businesses and the public. And vice versa. If the Central Bank reduces the rate very slowly in 2026, then the money of the population and businesses will be reluctant to leave the ruble zone, which provides more profitability, the analyst explains.
The current dynamics of inflation and the ruble make it possible to count on easing the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2026, Vladimir Bragin agrees. The traditionally strong ruble is based on a combination of high interest rates, limited imports and active sales of foreign exchange earnings, says Denis Astafyev.
"As the Central Bank's policy softens, these factors will weaken, which means that the ruble is likely to move to a more neutral or moderately weak trajectory," he predicts, allowing for the possibility of short—term periods of strengthening of the national currency, which will be situational in nature.
Lower oil prices associated with an excess of supply over demand will also have an impact on the weakening of the ruble. Potavin expects the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 to be in the range of $63-65 per barrel.
"At the same time, the average price of Urals crude oil is likely to be in the range of $52-54/bbl versus $58/bbl in 2025," the source believes.
An important role in shaping the exchange rate of the national currency will be played by the factor of geopolitics, which remains in the zone of uncertainty for the time being, the analyst emphasizes. The timing of the end of the special operation in Ukraine is unclear, as well as questions about the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions.
— So far, we do not expect a quick lifting of significant sanctions restrictions. At the same time, we believe that facilitating cross-border settlements may lead to significant amounts of foreign currency funds leaving the country, which have remained locked up here due to restrictions imposed over the past three years," the expert cites Finam's position.
At the same time, the ruble exchange rate should not be too strong, as the Russian authorities have repeatedly said in the second half of 2025, Potavin recalls.
"A too strong ruble exchange rate does not please the government and exporters, as the strong dynamics of the national currency reduces revenues from the sale of Russian goods abroad," he explains.
The strengthening of the ruble had a serious impact on the economy, becoming a strong factor in its cooling, Vladimir Bragin is convinced.
"Due to the high rate, the strong ruble could not contribute to the growth of investment imports of machine tools and equipment," the Izvestia interlocutor claims, noting that the state of the currency hit exporters the hardest, which contributes to the departure from the raw material model. Accelerating the cooling of the economy also provides increased competition with imports, bringing closer the reversal of the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
The authorities show that in the medium term they would like to see a weaker ruble exchange rate, Potavin draws attention.
"However, no one names the exact levels, so as not to create unnecessary hype around these figures," the expert emphasizes.
Therefore, the key task for 2026 is not to achieve the maximum strength of the ruble, but to maintain the predictability of the exchange rate and manageable volatility, Astafyev believes.
— For the Russian economy, such dynamics generally look neutral and positive: a moderately strong ruble restrains inflation and supports domestic demand, while not creating critical risks for exporters. In general, 2026 can be described as a period of currency adjustment and stabilization, rather than sharp exchange rate fluctuations," summarizes Yulia Kuznetsova.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
