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- Nothing has changed: even in a stressful scenario, the dollar exchange rate will not become triple-digit.
Nothing has changed: even in a stressful scenario, the dollar exchange rate will not become triple-digit.
In 2026, the Russian currency will cost about 90 rubles/$, follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. The main factors that kept the ruble strong in 2025 were the high key rate and large sales of the currency according to the budget rule; they will weaken in the coming year. Cheaper oil will also be added to them. In a negative scenario, the national currency may approach 100 rubles/ $, but it is unlikely that the indicators will be worse, experts say. The changes related to the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict will give particular volatility to the exchange rate. However, in the baseline scenario, significant progress is not expected in one direction or another on this issue.
What will be the exchange rate of the Russian currency in 2026
In the baseline scenario, the ruble will gradually weaken in the coming year. In the first quarter, it will drop from the New Year's eve 80 rubles/$ to 85, follows from the consensus forecast of Izvestia. It was attended by experts from major Russian banks, rating agencies and analytical companies. According to their expectations, by the end of 2026, the national currency will sink to 95 rubles/$, and the average annual exchange rate will be about 90 rubles/$.
The ruble will continue to be supported by the same factors that had a positive impact on it last year. But the positive from them will weaken, experts warned.
First of all, we are talking about the key rate: at the end of 2025, it was at the level of 16%, but it is expected that the Central Bank will gradually ease interest rate policy, said Yuri Kravchenko, head of the banking and money market analysis department at IC Veles Capital.
The higher the key value, the more attractive ruble assets are, and both private and institutional investors are in demand for them. In addition, in such conditions, it is more profitable for exporters to sell foreign currency earnings rather than borrow in rubles to finance their expenses. As a result, all this strengthens the position of the national currency.
— However, in practice, the regulator is likely to reduce the rate very slowly, and the ruble will not notice it for most of the year, — said Yuri Kravchenko.
Another factor that significantly supported the ruble in 2025 was the sale of foreign currency from the reserves of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule, Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, recalled. This mechanism is designed to stabilize the national currency when oil prices fluctuate: if raw materials are sold cheaper than a certain cut-off bar, which causes less foreign currency to enter the domestic market, the authorities sell funds from reserves.
According to Mikhail Vasiliev's expectations, in 2026, the volume of such operations will decrease to $22 billion from $33 billion last year. There will be less foreign money flowing into the domestic market, which means that the exchange rate, other things being equal, will be higher.
— The Central Bank will complete the sale of the currency as part of deferred operations. This fact alone will shift the average annual exchange rate up by about 3 rubles in 2026 (in 2025, the average annual exchange rate was about 84 rubles). The effect will begin to be felt in January," said Ilya Fedorov, Chief Economist at BCS World of Investments.
What will happen to oil prices
Despite the budget rule, oil prices are still reflected in the ruble exchange rate, although its fluctuations are becoming less drastic. Alexey Mikheev, investment strategist at VTB My Investments, predicts that the cost of raw materials will continue to decline in 2026, as there is an abundance of raw materials on the market. The price may reach $55 per barrel, whereas last year oil was trading around $60.
Nevertheless, negative factors will not collapse the ruble — they will be balanced by a number of positive aspects. Nevertheless, every year the business adapts better to the restrictions and finds opportunities to sell products abroad, that is, the total inflow of foreign currency through the export channel will be restored, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
At the same time, businesses will prefer to hold the currency not abroad, but inside the country in order to avoid geopolitical risks, added Yuri Kravchenko from Veles Capital. As a result, the influx of foreign money into Russia's currency circuit will still persist.
How will the negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict affect the ruble
Only a fundamental shift in the geopolitical settlement can have a noticeable impact on the exchange rate, both in the direction of improvement and deterioration of the situation, Yuri Kravchenko believes. Without such a shift, the reaction will be neutral, as market participants are already accustomed to and calmly accept regular "verbal interventions."
The baseline scenario for 2026 assumes that the situation will not change significantly, said Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank. According to him, the deterioration in geopolitics and the tightening of sanctions will lead to a weakening of the ruble, primarily due to a reduction in exports. The improvement will strengthen the national currency, as the conditions of foreign trade will become more comfortable, and foreign capital will return to the Russian Federation, Mikhail Vasiliev explained.
— On the other hand, if we imagine that the sanctions will begin to be dismantled, then the demand for both imports and foreign assets will grow. In addition, logistics and settlement mechanisms will begin to reconfigure, which may lead to local imbalances and spikes in market volatility," warned Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital.
Positive and negative scenarios for the ruble
However, analysts do not expect a significant weakening of the ruble even in a negative scenario. Judging by the consensus forecast of Izvestia, even in a stressful scenario, the exchange rate may come close to 100 rubles/$, but it is unlikely to be significantly weaker. The positive scenario is the average annual exchange rate of the national currency — 85 rubles/$.
If, as a last resort, we consider the most optimistic option and expect a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and the complete lifting of sanctions, then the ruble may sharply strengthen to 60-70 per dollar (at the moment it may be 50-60 per dollar), Mikhail Vasilyev noted.
— In any scenario, January (when economic activity freezes for half a month and consumer demand is active), early summer (the reduction in the key rate may accelerate, and demand for foreign money will increase due to the holiday period) and November-December (a seasonal surge in budget, corporate and consumer spending in rubles, which puts pressure on his position)," warned Alexander Bakhtin from Garda Capital.
What will become more expensive in 2026
The most acute reaction to the change in the ruble exchange rate this year, as always, will be the cost of medicines and travel, said Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA rating agency, as well as prices for cars and electronics, Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank added. The changes will also affect Russian products that use imported components or services provided by foreign services.
— In general, the business plans of many companies may already include a weakening of the ruble to 90-95 per dollar. Therefore, if the ruble exchange rate remains no weaker than these values, then there may not be a significant transfer to consumer prices," Mikhail Vasiliev reassured.
However, a lot of other factors can affect the cost of products within the Russian Federation, for example, tax adjustments from January 1, he concluded.
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