The expert estimated the fall in oil prices
The decline in butter prices in Russia below the level of 2024 is not the beginning of deflation, but a temporary correction against the background of food inflation of 5-6%, Elena Tikhonova, managing partner of FoodTech Consulting, told Izvestia.
Most dairy products became more expensive in 2025, but the increase in milk supply has stabilized the butter market, the expert noted. For consumers, this is a relief, but not a trend to reduce the cost of the entire basket of socially significant goods.
"In the producer—processor—retail chain, retailers are rapidly reducing prices for traffic, and processors are suffering from high costs of energy, logistics, and loans. The market is being optimized: volume growth, fewer SKUs (warehouse accounting units), more promotions and exports," Tikhonova explained.
Eggs (-20%) and potatoes (-25%) have similar dynamics: overproduction puts pressure on farm profitability under trade pressure, she added.
Tikhonova predicts stabilization for 2026 with 4-5% inflation, with risks from weather, logistics and currency. According to her forecasts, prices for eggs and cereals will remain stable, while prices for potatoes and tangerines will rise seasonally.
Earlier it became known that butter prices in Russia at the end of 2025 fell below last year's prices, the Rusprodsoyuz association reported. On the 50th week of 2025, average retail prices for butter in Russia fell below last year's figures for the first time.
Read more about the dynamics of retail prices for basic foodstuffs in the Izvestia article:
Butter is melting: prices for a number of products have fallen to a two-year low
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