I'm aware of the fact: oil and gas revenues may reach 8.2 trillion this year
Oil and gas revenues to the treasury may be slightly lower than the level stipulated in the financial plan and amount to about 8.2 trillion, follows from the forecast of Izvestia. Commodity quotes are supported by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: Urals is currently trading above $75 per barrel. While maintaining the high cost of raw materials, additional budget revenues may reach about 2.4 trillion. The effect of expensive oil is partially offset by a strong ruble and a decrease in exports of raw materials. At the same time, total revenues are still growing compared to last year, the Finance Ministry said. What else will help to close the existing deficit is in the Izvestia article.
What will be the oil and gas revenues in 2026
In the first half of the year, the budget received about 3.66 trillion rubles of oil and gas revenues, according to the Ministry of Finance. This is almost a quarter less than it was a year earlier.
By the end of 2026, receipts may approach 8.2 trillion rubles, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This is about 700 billion rubles less than the forecast set by the authorities — 8.9 trillion rubles.
To reach the planned level, the treasury needs to raise more than 5.2 trillion in the second half of the year, said economist Olga Gogaladze. This is 43% more than received in the first six months.
Such a result could be achieved only if several factors were combined at once. This would require a higher oil price, a weakening of the ruble and maintaining stable export volumes, said Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. Meeting only one of these conditions will not be able to compensate for the deviation.
How much does oil cost now
Since the end of February, oil revenues have been supported by the geopolitical situation. At the beginning of this year, budget revenues from neftegaz amounted to about 400 billion rubles a month, in April they reached almost 900 billion rubles, former Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov recalled in an interview with Izvestia.
"The active phase of the conflict has almost doubled the flow of oil and gas revenues to the treasury, even despite the factor of a strong ruble. Without favorable commodity prices, the budget would have received only half of the estimated 9 trillion rubles of oil and gas revenues for the year. <...> But it is important to understand: this is not a windfall, but rather an opportunity to fulfill the approved revenue plan," he explained.
At its peak, the cost of Brent and Russian Urals exceeded $110 per barrel. However, the situation temporarily stabilized in early summer. After Iran and the United States suspended mutual military strikes, oil prices dropped sharply: the Urals price dropped below $55 per barrel.
A new escalation followed less than two weeks later — on June 27-28, Washington and Tehran exchanged blows again, effectively disrupting the previously reached ceasefire agreements. Against this background, oil began to rise in price again. According to trading data, by 18:30 Moscow time on July 28, Urals was worth about $74 per barrel, and Brent — $84.5.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the acute phase of the fighting will last for several more months. At the same time, it is unlikely that the conflict will be resolved before the end of 2026. It is expected that this will support oil prices: on average, Urals can cost about $72-77 per barrel per year, and Brent - $85-90 per barrel.
The press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia that the dynamics of oil and gas revenues is largely influenced by the external environment and high volatility in the global energy market.
Why oil and gas revenues are falling
The rising cost of oil has a direct impact on budget revenues. Each additional dollar in the average annual price brings about 150-160 billion rubles to the treasury, the financial adviser and founder of Rodin explained.Capital Alexey Rodin. If we take the average price of raw materials for the year at $75 per barrel, then additional budget revenues by the end of 2026 could amount to more than 2.4 trillion rubles.
However, there are a number of factors that will negatively affect revenue. One of the main ones is a strong ruble. The average exchange rate of the US currency in the first half of the year was about 76.5 rubles, while the budget was formed based on 92.2 rubles per $1. The difference of almost 16 rubles significantly reduces the ruble revenue of exporters from each barrel and treasury revenues, Olga Gogaladze explained.
High oil prices alone do not guarantee an increase in oil and gas budget revenues. If Russia exports and produces less oil due to OPEC+ restrictions, sanctions or logistical difficulties, the increase in the cost of raw materials will not be able to fully compensate for the reduction in supply volumes. For example, according to the International Energy Agency, exports of petroleum products from Russia decreased by 230,000 barrels per day.
In addition, the total amount of revenue is also affected by the mechanism of its distribution. Not all accrued oil and gas revenues remain in the budget: payments to companies, including through a damping mechanism, are deducted from them. With the growth of such compensations, the actual revenues of the treasury are decreasing, said Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. In addition, it is important to take into account that the quotes of Brent and Urals differ — Russian oil is traditionally sold at a discount.
At the same time, the decrease in oil and gas revenues this year does not mean a deterioration in the situation with budget revenues as a whole. According to the Ministry of Finance, non-oil and gas revenues in the first half of the year increased by more than 16% and amounted to almost 15 trillion rubles.
The total amount of federal budget revenues is in line with the plan. According to preliminary estimates, in January – June 2026, it reached 18.6 trillion rubles, which is 5.8% higher than last year, the ministry told Izvestia.
How to close the budget deficit
The shortage of oil and gas revenues will directly increase the gap between revenues and expenditures of the treasury, said economist Olga Gogaladze. Even now, despite the growth in budget revenues, the expenditure side remains high — about 24.5 trillion rubles. Thus, the deficit is 2.5% of GDP, or 5.7 trillion rubles.
The current figures are already exceeding the parameters originally included in the plan. According to the budget law, the deficit was supposed to amount to 3.8 trillion rubles. However, in July, an updated forecast appeared on the Electronic Budget portal — 4.8 trillion rubles (with revenues of 40.3 trillion and expenses of 45.1 trillion). As Izvestia previously reported, by the end of the year, the federal treasury may go into negative territory by 7 trillion rubles.
In such a situation, domestic borrowing through the placement of federal loan bonds (OFZ) will become the main way to compensate for the budget deficit, Vladimir Chernov believes. This avoids drastic cost cuts, but at the same time increases the national debt and the cost of servicing it, especially with high inflation, he noted. However, the capabilities of this tool also depend on the market situation: on July 20, the Ministry of Finance postponed OFZ auctions indefinitely.
The National Welfare Fund remains another source of funds. The liquid part of the NWF allows the authorities to close temporary budget deficits, if necessary. However, it is better to use these funds in a limited way in order to maintain a financial safety cushion for the future, Olga Gogaladze warned.
In addition, the authorities can adjust the budget policy. Among the possible measures are the postponement of part of the costs for the following periods, a reduction in funding for lower—priority programs and an increase in non-oil and gas revenues, Vladimir Chernov admitted. However, if you compensate for the decrease in raw material revenues by increasing the tax burden, this may limit business investment activity and slow down economic growth.
Thus, the problem of budget revenues is not limited only to the cost of oil. Even an increase in raw material prices does not guarantee the fulfillment of the plan, since the amount of revenue also depends on the ruble exchange rate and export volumes. As a result, expensive oil can only reduce the scale of the shortage, but not eliminate the risks to the revenue side of the budget.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
