Analysts have forecast the key rate for 2026 at 14.5%

The Bank of Russia has published the results of a macroeconomic survey of analysts, in which they raised their forecast for the key interest rate for 2026-2029. This became known on July 15 from a survey published on the regulator's website.

The average key rate for 2026 is expected to be 14.5% instead of the previously forecast 14.1%. And the forecast for 2027 has been raised from 10.6% to 12.2%, for 2028 — from 9% to 10%, for 2029 — from 8.1% to 8.6%.

The forecast for GDP growth rates for 2026 has been lowered from 0.7% to 0.6%, for 2027 from 1.5% to 1.3%, and for 2028 and 2029 it has been maintained at 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Inflation for 2026 is expected to be 6.2% instead of 5.3%, for 2027 — 4.6% instead of 4.4%, for 2028 — 4.1%, in 2029 — 4%.

The percentage went down: the reduction in the key rate hit the incomes of Russians

Why do people earn more and can spend less, and how does this change the economy

On June 19, the Central Bank of Russia decided to reduce its key rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%. As noted in the regulator, the trend towards easing monetary conditions remains, but their overall level remains tight. The head of Sberbank, German Gref, said on June 30 that the Russian economy was already supercooled, and the Central Bank's key rate needed to be lowered.

Nabiullina said on July 2 that the Central Bank sees room for a key rate cut in July, while the timing and pace of monetary policy easing will depend on the development of the economic situation.