Business on time: entrepreneurs are less likely to open new companies

The number of new enterprises in the four months of 2026 sank to a historic low - only 51 thousand organizations have been opened since the beginning of the year, according to Rosstat data (Izvestia analyzed them). At the same time, businesses are closing more often than they are opening, although the number of liquidations has also decreased. The work of many organizations has become less profitable due to the high key interest rate and tax changes. Entrepreneurs are increasingly hesitant to launch new projects, and existing companies are falling into standby mode in order to survive a difficult period. What can support business activity is in the Izvestia article.

Why is it less common to launch a new business in Russia?

In January – April 2026, only 50,5 thousand new companies opened in Russia. This is the minimum in the entire history of observations, according to Rosstat data. Compared to last year, the indicator has dropped by almost a quarter.

At the same time, enterprises are still closing more often than new ones are opening, according to the statistical agency. In four months of 2026, 79 thousand organizations were liquidated. The figure decreased by 16% compared to last year, but in general, for every 10 new companies, there are almost 16 closed ones.

The economic situation does not allow a start-up business to provide an acceptable level of profitability, said Ivan Efremenkov, Deputy Executive Director of Opora Russia.

The press service of the Federal Tax Service told Izvestia that they regularly work on the reliability of the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (USRLE). They administratively exclude "abandoned companies", organizations with false information (with signs of fictitiousness), as well as organizations with a high risk of committing suspicious banking transactions, they added.

In 2025, the income tax reached 25%, and since 2026, the VAT rate has increased from 20% to 22%. In addition, starting this year, the income threshold for taxpayers under the simplified taxation system (USN) has also been lowered from 60 million rubles to 20 million. As a result, many small companies are facing an increased tax burden.

It was planned that in the future this threshold would drop to 10 million by 2028. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed to maintain the target of 20 million in 2027-2029. Tax changes really remain an important issue for entrepreneurs, confirmed Vladimir Klimanov, Director of the IPEI Regional Policy Center at the Presidential Academy. The increased workload has led to the fact that many are faced with a decrease in profitability.

The business activity is also influenced by the high key. Since the beginning of the year, it has decreased by only 1.75 percentage points, to 14.45%. The regulator's policy remains tough, experts believe.

Lending to small and medium—sized enterprises (SMEs) has slowed down significantly compared to last year - the portfolio of such loans has grown by only 1.7%, according to the Central Bank. The increase in the portfolio is provided exclusively by quasi-SME companies that formally belong to small and medium—sized businesses, but in fact belong to large holdings. Real small and medium-sized enterprises received almost 10% fewer loans by the end of 2025.

At the same time, the decrease in the number of company registrations is also associated with the popularity of the self-employment regime. According to Vladimir Klimanov, in many cases this format turned out to be easier and more convenient for entrepreneurs than opening a legal entity.

In which industries are companies most often opened and closed?

Most of the companies appeared in wholesale and retail trade (almost 15 thousand), as well as in construction (7 thousand). However, in the same industries, the number of liquidations exceeded the influx of new players, according to Rosstat data.

Online trading is now, in principle, associated with lower profitability and higher costs, explained Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of the VMT Consulting agency. Today, many customers are looking for products immediately on marketplaces, without visiting online stores, which is why private online sellers cannot compete.

The construction industry is under pressure from a reduction in the number of new projects and a decrease in sales of building materials, the expert added. In addition, demand for new buildings may decrease after the tightening of family mortgage conditions — as Izvestia wrote, rates can reach 10-12% for families with one child, and these are the majority of potential home buyers. Because of this, many entrepreneurs are hesitant to launch their own business in the construction sector.

At the same time, the business is affected by a shortage of personnel, said Ivan Efremenkov from Opora Russia. Unemployment in the Russian Federation remains at a record low (2.2% in April). Because of this, companies often have to retain employees through salary increases. This is largely why salaries have been increasing in recent years — in March alone, real wages grew by 8.1% year-on-year.

Individual industries faced a drop in demand, the expert added. Taken together, these factors create a tense environment for both aspiring entrepreneurs and companies that have been operating in the market for a long time.

What can support businesses

Due to the high workload, some entrepreneurs do not completely close the business and choose a wait-and-see strategy, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global. At the same time, companies are saved formally: accounts, contracts, licenses and accumulated business history remain, which allows you to quickly return to work if necessary.

At the same time, existing businesses, even when experiencing difficulties, are not always liquidated, Ekaterina Kosareva from VMT Consult reminded. Some of the closures are forced: the Federal Tax Service conducts a "clean-up", removing "empty" companies from the market that have not been operating for a long time.

This situation creates a bias: formally, existing companies continue to be listed on the market, while the number of new participants is decreasing, Vladimir Chernov noted. This weakens competition, reduces the number of new projects and jobs, reduces incentives for existing companies to improve efficiency, and generally slows down business activity.

In this case, it is important to support not only the existing business, but also to help those who are just planning to start their own business, Ekaterina Kosareva believes. Without this, entering the market becomes more difficult, and entrepreneurial activity decreases already at the start, so fewer new companies appear in the economy, which has a bad effect on market competitiveness.

The authorities support businesses at all stages of development through a system of tools, from "My Business" centers to government microfinance institutions and online platforms, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development told Izvestia. Entrepreneurs can receive consultations, preferential microloans, guarantees and training services both face-to-face and online. All this makes it easier to start a business and increases its efficiency.

According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, further easing of the Central Bank's policy may spur business activity and inspire Russians to start their own business. However, at the last meeting, unexpectedly for the market, the regulator slowed down the pace of rate cuts and gave a tough signal about future meetings — market forecasts that it could drop to 12% by the end of the year may not come true.

Nevertheless, the average key rate in 2027 will be 8-10%, according to the forecasts of the Central Bank. This level will be more comfortable for businesses — the opportunity to attract cheaper loans will allow more companies to enter the market.