Haggling recipe: Iran lures the US with oil investments
The United States and Iran have returned to indirect talks in Geneva in hopes of reducing the risk of a new escalation after weeks of mutual threats and demonstrations of force. The growing concentration of American troops in the region and harsh statements from the White House have increased tensions. The White House is discussing various scenarios of possible pressure on Iran, including an option in which Israel could launch the first strike. While the United States is setting a strict two-week deadline for Tehran to accept a new deal, the Iranian side is trying to seize the initiative by offering large-scale investments in the oil and gas sector and the purchase of civil aviation. Technical consultations of the two countries' delegations will begin in Vienna next week.
The US has received new proposals from Iran
Washington and Tehran held another round of indirect talks in Geneva on February 26, hoping to reduce the risk of a new military escalation in the Middle East. The negotiations, as during the previous rounds in Muscat and Geneva, were mediated by Oman and did not involve direct dialogue between the parties. The Iranian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, and the American delegation was led by Special Representative of the President of the United States Steve Witkoff.
The Iranian delegation at the talks is heading to the venue of the talks with the United States in Geneva.
"These were some of the most serious and longest negotiations. We have made good progress in these few long hours," Araqchi said live on Iranian television. The parties agreed to hold technical consultations in Vienna starting on March 2.
Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr al-Busaidi, who is acting as mediator, said that during the talks, new proposals from the Iranian side were considered, as well as responses and requests from the American delegation regarding the nuclear program and guarantees for monitoring the technical aspects of the deal. He also noted the openness of the parties to new solutions.
According to the Iranian state Television and Radio company, Iran and the United States reacted positively to the proposals that the parties outlined to each other. The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, also joined the discussion of the nuclear dossier. This may signal that the discussion is already about the technical aspects of the deal.
The head of the Omani Foreign Ministry also said that the Geneva round had ended with significant progress. At the same time, according to Axios, the morning part of the negotiations in Geneva was tense. Representatives of the American delegation expressed disappointment with a number of statements by the Iranian side, which complicated the discussion at an early stage.
As part of the dialogue, Tehran, according to Al-Jazeera sources, proposed a temporary freeze on uranium enrichment. This step is considered as a possible basis for an interim compromise.
At the same time, the American side insists on the strictest terms of a possible agreement. In particular, according to the Wall Street Journal, the United States is demanding the dismantling of key nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, as well as the transfer of all enriched uranium. Tehran, in turn, has already made it clear that such demands are unacceptable to it.
The new meeting in Switzerland is taking place after a large-scale strengthening of American forces in the region. According to Western media, the United States has deployed more than 150 aircraft at bases in Europe and the Middle East, bringing its military presence to its maximum level since the operation in Iraq in 2003. At the same time, in recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated his readiness to use force against Iran in the event of a failure of negotiations, accusing Tehran of seeking to possess nuclear weapons and developing missile programs.
Back in January, the White House admitted the possibility of a military scenario, while emphasizing that the preferred option remains the conclusion of a "fair and equitable" deal involving Iran's complete refusal to build an atomic bomb. Tehran consistently rejects these accusations, insisting on the peaceful nature of the nuclear program.
Against this background, the republic is trying to increase Washington's interest in compromise by offering economic incentives. According to media reports, at the talks in Switzerland, the Iranian side raised the possibility of joint investments in the oil and gas sector and purchases of American civil aviation equipment in exchange for easing sanctions and unblocking foreign assets.
According to the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom, the Iranian delegation had previously proposed a detailed plan for the admission of American businesses to strategic sectors of the economy. In particular, Iran has offered the White House joint projects in the oil and gas, mining and aviation industries. According to sources, the plan describes the mechanisms for US companies to enter the Iranian oil industry in exchange for easing sanctions and unblocking foreign assets.
Military escalation in the Middle East
Amid the negotiations, leaks about possible military plans have increased in the American media. According to Politico, the US administration is discussing the option of a "strike at the top," including a hypothetical assassination attempt on Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The same sources claim that some of Trump's advisers would prefer Israel to strike Iran first, which, according to their calculations, would make it easier to gain public support for subsequent US intervention. However, Washington considers a joint operation between the two countries to be the most likely scenario.
The additional pressure increases the tight time corridor. In mid-February, Donald Trump set a deadline of 10-15 days for Tehran to reach an agreement on a new version of the nuclear deal. American media reports that the Pentagon has already informed the White House about the readiness of the armed forces for a possible operation after strengthening the fleet and aviation in the region.
At the same time, Washington insists on an expanded negotiating agenda. The US goals in them go beyond just Tehran's nuclear program. In addition to completely abandoning uranium enrichment, the United States is seeking to limit Iran's missile arsenal, weaken its support for regional proxy groups, and possibly even achieve regime change in Tehran.
The Iranian side is ready to negotiate, but exclusively within the framework of the nuclear agenda, international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalul told Izvestia. Any attempts to expand the format, affecting, for example, Iran's missile program or regional influence, according to him, will make reaching an agreement unlikely. Dalul emphasizes that the initiative is now with the United States, and for Tehran, the main thing is not sanctions relief, but firm guarantees that Washington will not unilaterally withdraw from the agreement.
For the United States, the current round of negotiations is primarily an attempt to exhaust diplomatic resources before possible military action, said Roman Yanushevsky, editor—in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel. "It is important for the White House to show that everything has been done for a peaceful settlement. This will give additional legitimacy to any further steps," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
According to the expert, the likelihood of fundamental concessions from Tehran is low: most likely, the Iranian leadership will seek to delay negotiations and gain time. For the United States, a trade deal with Iran is beneficial as a way to reduce tensions without a military scenario and achieve a diplomatic result, Roman Yanushevsky believes. Washington may make a limited compromise, but it is likely to be about point concessions in exchange for controlled steps by Tehran, the expert added.
The current escalation was largely the result of the failure of negotiations last summer. In June 2025, the United States attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, after which Tehran responded with a missile attack on the American base of Al-Udeid in Qatar. At that time, the Iranian authorities announced the suspension of uranium enrichment, but the real state of the nuclear program is still a matter of dispute.
As for the United States' allies in a potential military action against Iran, their circle is limited. Israel remains a key partner, actively lobbying for strikes and ready for joint operations. However, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will not allow their territories or airspace to be used to attack Iran, seeking to avoid involvement in the conflict. European allies, including Britain, are also distancing themselves.
In the absence of a military operation, the build-up of forces around Iran can last for months, but it is extremely costly. According to former Pentagon Chief Financial Controller Elaine McCusker, the additional military capabilities deployed by the United States to the region since the end of December have already cost about $350-370 million.
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