If there is a war tomorrow: what will be the US attack on Iran and how will it affect the situation in the region

The growing US military presence in the Middle East, as well as threats by US President Donald Trump to use force against Tehran, have worried the whole world. While Germany, following Poland, is calling on its citizens in Iran to leave the country immediately, experts in different countries are speculating about possible attacks and the effect they will have on the balance of power in the region. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Show of force

The United States sent significant forces to the Middle East region earlier this year "to strike Iran to help the protesters overthrow the Ayatollah regime." The demonstrations gradually faded away, and the American strikes did not follow.

Instead, Tehran and Washington resumed negotiations on a nuclear deal. On February 17, the second round of negotiations was held in Geneva, mediated by Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. There is very little official information about the meeting. All that is known is that Washington demands that Tehran completely abandon uranium enrichment on its territory, give up all available stocks of enriched uranium, limit the development of its missile program and stop supporting Middle Eastern groups.

The Iranian authorities have made it clear that they are ready to make concessions on the nuclear program, but they refuse to even discuss the missile program and the support of their proxy forces.

Raise the stakes in negotiations

Against this background, the world media are once again talking about a possible US war with Iran. The American authorities are actively fueling these rumors.

For a month now, an American strike group led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln has been stationed at the entrance to the Persian Gulf — several hundred kilometers from Iran. In addition, over the past few weeks, Washington has deployed air defense systems and large stocks of ammunition, as well as hundreds of aircraft, to the Middle East region.

On February 13, American leader Donald Trump announced that a strike group with the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford was to join the Abraham Lincoln.

This unit is considered the strongest in the US Navy. Previously, it was located in the Caribbean, where it participated in the operation against Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Russia, China and Iran have sent naval vessels for joint exercises in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz as part of the Maritime Security Belt 2026 program. The three countries annually conduct military maneuvers, and this time, amid the escalation, they did not cancel or postpone them. They are to take place in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean as an effort to strengthen maritime security and deepen "military cooperation."

The war in the Middle East

"US President Donald Trump has not yet made a decision [regarding the war with Iran], but the US military is on alert: a new attack on Iran may begin in the near future if diplomacy fails. Negotiations are continuing. But the threats from Washington against the regime in Tehran remain very harsh," the German newspaper Die Zeit writes about this.

The authors of the publication ask themselves: "are the United States trying to create a threatening background by its actions," seeking to obtain concessions from the Iranian regime, or are they pursuing other goals?

Now Trump has started talking about how Iran must "stop posing a threat to the world and especially to US bases and allies in the Middle East." In fact, the American leader is raising the stakes in the negotiations, demanding concessions from Tehran and otherwise threatening to inflict a heavy blow on it.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei claims Iran's full right to its own nuclear program, threatening to sink American ships.

"The big war in the Middle East is much closer than many can imagine," writes Axios. The publication notes that if Trump backs down, he will lose face and make it clear to the players in the region that the US demands can be ignored.

CBS News reports that Trump was informed about the technical readiness of the US armed forces to launch an operation against Tehran on Saturday, February 21. Following the results of the second round of negotiations, Iran should have two weeks to prepare its proposals for the next meeting.

However, last year, the two-week deadline given to Tehran was only a distraction, during which Israel, with the approval of the United States, began bombing Iran. This time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to visit Israel.

Possible developments

The British media, believing in the readiness of the United States to strike Iran, have developed seven possible scenarios for the development of events. According to the first of them, which is called optimistic, Washington will limit itself to targeted pinpoint strikes, and a "transition to democracy" will take place in the country itself. According to the second option, the regime will remain, but at the same time soften its policy.

The most likely outcome of the events is the destruction of the Ayatollah regime and the military coming to power in Iran.

Another possible option is for Iran to strike at the American army, Israel, and its Arab neighbors. The remaining scenarios are the installation of mines by Iran in the Persian Gulf, the sinking of a US warship and the collapse of the Ayatollah regime, which is being replaced by chaos.

In turn, the Foreign Policy publication is confident that the most likely scenario is not a US invasion of Iran or a full—scale regional conflict, but a carefully calculated, limited strike aimed at changing the balance in the negotiations.

The US military potential surpasses Iran's, but it is unlikely that the Americans will decide on a ground operation.

Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post—Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalled in an interview with Izvestia that there are already examples of war with Iran - this is the 12-day war of 2025.

— In the case of the current escalation of the war, during which air strikes can be used with the help of aviation and rocket attacks. Against this background, there is a big question about the readiness of the Iranian air defense," the political scientist noted.

The expert suggested that in this case, strikes on power facilities are quite likely.

— This can be done in order to disable the entire industrial infrastructure, primarily civilian, and create chaos in cities. Parallel strikes against military installations are not excluded. If Israel participates in the conflict, attacks on nuclear facilities are likely," the expert said.

In his opinion, at a minimum, these could be attacks on scientific research centers, and at most on uranium enrichment plants.

— I am not ready to judge whether the West is aware of the consequences of such attacks on nuclear power plants, because this could cause a huge nuclear disaster with all the ensuing consequences, — the analyst believes.

Krylov is confident that if the Bushehr nuclear power plant is destroyed and a radioactive substance is released from the reactor core, about half of the Middle East may die.

"As the experience of Venezuela and other hot spots shows us, 100% there will be attacks on presidential facilities, institutions, etc. in order to destroy the ruling elite as much as possible, breaking the entire management system, the entire command system of both the country as a whole and the military in particular," the source said.

The political scientist suggested that in the event of the outbreak of hostilities, "the conflict will not last long."

— The main task is to throw Iran back into the Stone Age. At the same time, it should be emphasized that US President Donald Trump sometimes says a lot of things, but not all of his words exactly match his actions, the expert emphasizes.

According to the expert, it would be more logical to escalate the situation until "the enemy information burns out."

— Iran cannot be constantly on alert. And here Washington needs to catch that delicate moment when Tehran relaxes, then the effect of the strike will be maximum, the analyst is sure.

Krylov believes that Iran is unable to seize the initiative.

— In the event of a war between the United States and Iran, the balance of power in the region will be shaken. I don't think any of the external or internal players will stand up for Iran. If Tehran, as a strong player, loses its position in the region, three players will remain there — Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia," the political scientist concluded.