Loss-making minimum: every fifth corporate bond has default risks
About 20-25% of the corporate bond market in Russia in 2026 was in the zone of increased default risk, brokers interviewed by Izvestia estimated. During the year, the share jumped significantly — in 2025 it was no more than 15-18%. This is due to a long period of tight monetary policy and problems with debt refinancing. Some companies are already using the funds raised not for development, but for servicing old loans. Which bonds have increased risks and what the investor will receive in case of default on the bonds — in the Izvestia article.
Why are there more risky bonds
Currently, about one in five bonds on the stock market has default risks, market participants surveyed by Izvestia estimated. The share of such securities can even reach up to 25% of the total volume, according to Egor Zinoviev, an analyst at Digital Broker. Moreover, the indicator has grown significantly — a year ago it was 15-18%.
The situation worsened against the background of a long period of high key interest rates, which peaked at 21%. Borrowed funds rose sharply in price, and refinancing for some companies began to cost 26-35% per annum. As a result, the number of defaults increased in 2025 and the trend may continue in 2026, noted Egor Zinoviev.
This year, about one in five corporate bonds has already been in the default risk zone, Vladislav Nikonov, founder of the Finbazar financial platform, agreed. At the same time, a year earlier, according to him, the share was almost twice as low — at the level of 10-12%. The deterioration is primarily due to the active growth of second- and third-tier issues and SME bonds. The second category includes securities with moderate liquidity indicators and increased risks, and the third category includes the most risky bonds of little—known or financially unstable companies.
However, the high-risk area is gradually expanding, said Andrey Zatsepin, chief analyst at Alor Broker. According to him, even some A-rated bonds can no longer be considered completely safe. And with a lower one, even more so. This is 21-22% of all issues.
Each bond has a credit rating. It is assigned by agencies, assessing the financial condition of the company and its ability to fulfill obligations. The higher the rating — for example, AAA — the lower the risk of non-payment. BBB and lower securities belong to the riskier segment, but usually yield higher returns.
Nevertheless, broker estimates vary. According to Maria Romantsova, Managing Director for Debt capital Markets at Finam, the share of bonds in the high default risk area has indeed increased this year, but it is unlikely to exceed 15%. According to her calculations, with a total volume of corporate bonds of 20 trillion rubles, issues worth 2-3 trillion rubles are really at risk.
It is believed that all companies rated below BBB- trade speculative or junk bonds. At the same time, even the BBB+ level was called risky by market participants — the volume of high-yield bonds with it reaches hundreds of billions of rubles. In these segments, the risks of defaults are maximum.
The year 2025 was a record year for defaults for the Russian market: 48 cases of default were recorded, Maria Romantsova noted. Recent examples: in January, Monopoly defaulted without paying 3 billion rubles. At the same time, it occurred at the Neppy Club company due to account blocking. Previously, the Obuv Rossii organizations, the Avtocity network and the PC Billion manufacturer had defaults.
Now investors are also afraid of the risks of the bonds of the Aeroplane company, which has asked the government for emergency support in the amount of 50 billion rubles to service debts, the expert noted. Izvestia sent a request to these companies.
What yield do corporate bonds offer?
Corporate bond yields remain at high levels. In the reliable segment, they remain at about 16%. This is about 1.6–1.9 percentage points more than with OFZ, said Vasily Chepel, an analyst at Alfa-Capital Management Company.
In the segment of high—yield bonds, investors can receive 30-32%, but about half of this figure is precisely the risk premium.
High profitability is formed from two components: the key level and the compensation of credit risk, explained Maria Romantsova. Even after the rate was reduced by 5 percentage points from its peak, many issues placed at 21% continue to receive high coupons, especially in the SME segment.
The difference between the ratings is also noticeable. The yield of AAA group bonds can be in the order of 15-16%, while Group A securities can yield more than 20%. The difference of almost 5 percentage points is a fee for lower credit quality, explained the Assistant Professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova Nail Khayrov. Simply put, a yield of 20% or more is not a gift, but compensation for the risk of possible default.
Where the risks are highest
The segment of small and medium-sized businesses remains the most vulnerable. SME companies pay more for borrowed funds, have limited access to bank financing and are more often dependent on current liquidity, said Egor Zinoviev.
A similar opinion was expressed by Andrey Zatsepin. According to him, if the company is not backed by the state or a large holding company, if its financial performance deteriorates, it simply has nowhere to get support.
Defaults are most often recorded in development, commercial real estate, logistics, trucking, leasing and trade, Maria Romantsova noted. It is in these industries that the high debt burden is now combined with falling demand and rising interest costs.
At the same time, in addition to industry-wide dynamics, it is advisable to delve deeply into the assessment of the credit quality of individual issuers, added Vasily Chepel from Alfa Capital. Even in troubled industries, there are relatively reliable issuers, as well as more risky companies in stable segments.
At the same time, the corporate bond market is growing faster than bank lending. The volume of corporate bonds jumped by 25% over the year, while business loans increased by about 10%. Companies are increasingly moving to the public debt market, but an increase in volume does not mean an increase in quality, said Nail Khairov from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
An additional risk factor is the volume of upcoming repayments: in 2026, it amounts to about 4.9—6 trillion rubles, and a significant part of the payments falls at the end of the year. If access to the market is limited, weak issuers may face serious difficulties. This is a concentration of risk "on time": if the issuer is unable to re-borrow by the autumn of 2026, default is possible, Nail Khairov concluded.
What will happen if the rate is reduced
A decrease in the key rate usually leads to a drop in yields and an increase in bond prices. The longer the term of the paper, the more strongly its price reacts to the easing of monetary policy, Andrey Zatsepin explained.
At the same time, demand may persist. Against the background of lower deposit rates, bonds remain one of the few instruments with attractive yields, Maria Romantsova noted.
At the same time, yields may decrease more slowly for low-rated issuers. The market will increasingly divide reliable companies and weak borrowers, Nail Khairov believes. This increases the likelihood of point defaults even in the context of monetary policy easing.
What does default mean for an investor?
A default on the bonds means that the company has not paid the coupon or returned the face value on time. If the obligations are not fulfilled for more than 10 business days, the investor gets the right to demand early repayment. It is usually submitted through a broker, and then it passes through the National Settlement Depository, explained Maria Romantsova.
If the demand is not fulfilled, the judicial procedure begins. After the court's decision, bankruptcy is launched, and the company's assets are sold off. However, the bondholders belong to the third line of creditors, so their chances of a full refund are low, said Egor Zinoviev. The procedure can take months or even years. In practice, investors often receive only a part of the invested funds or do not receive them at all.
Some Russians are already shifting their focus towards more reliable securities. According to FG Finam, 30-40% of private investors have already done this last year.
However, with a reduction in the rate, new participants may enter the market, focusing primarily on the coupon size, Maria Romantsova warned. Without analyzing the financial statements and the issuer's rating, there is a high risk of default in the portfolio.
Bonds can be an effective diversification tool for companies, but for an investor, high returns always mean special risk. And in conditions when about a fifth of the market is in a zone of increased uncertainty, this principle becomes especially relevant.
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