They are going to decline: bond yields will fall to 10% in 2026%
The yield on government bonds will fall to 10% in 2026, now it stands at 14%, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast. This will happen against the background of a decrease in the key rate, which may drop to 12-13% by the end of the year, this is exactly the level stipulated in the new draft budget. Corporate bonds will also start yielding lower yields in 2026. Why investments in such assets will be more profitable than bank deposits is described in the Izvestia article.
What are the current bond yields?
The yield on federal loan bonds (OFZ) will fall to 10% over a 12-month horizon. This was reported to Izvestia by analysts and market participants. The yield to maturity of corporate bonds will also decrease. According to experts, they will also drop by several percentage points, but they will still remain more profitable than bank deposits.
Currently, government bond yields average 14.5% for 10-year securities and 13.9% for two-year bonds, said Olga Gogaladze, an expert on financial markets. Prior to the reduction of the key rate to 17% following the last meeting of the Central Bank, rates were higher by about 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, many analysts expected a faster easing of the Central Bank's policy, so the regulator's decision triggered bond sales, which even caused yields to rise slightly.
The yield to maturity is the total earnings of an investor on a bond, which consists of coupon payments and the difference between the purchase price and the repayment price. For example, if the nominal value of a bond is 100 rubles, now it costs 95, it takes two years to maturity, and the annual coupon is 5 rubles, then during this time the investor will receive two coupons of 5 rubles each (10 in total) and another 5 rubles difference when the repayment price "pulls up" to face value. As a result, his total income will be 15 rubles for the invested 95, that is, about 7.9% per year.
When preparing the budget, the Ministry of Finance was guided by the base scenario of the Central Bank (CB) and took into account the key rate at the level of 12-13% in 2026, the head of the department Anton Siluanov said in an interview with Izvestia at the Moscow Financial Forum. Such an adjustment will be the main reason for the decline in government bond yields.
— On the horizon of the year, everything will depend on inflation and the economic situation. They will influence the decision of the Central Bank, which will affect bond yields. In the baseline scenario, the rate in 2026 will be on average 12-13%, most likely, OFZ yields will move to 10%," Olga Gogaladze drew attention.
Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, believes that "short" bonds for a period of two years will become more vulnerable to the macroeconomic situation. Their profitability will lag behind the "long" ones by about 1 percentage point.
At the same time, high-quality corporate securities now account for about 17-18%, said Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. However, after the Central Bank meeting, yields began to gradually slide down. With further easing of the regulator's policy in the direction of 15-16% by the end of the year, we can expect a decrease in corporate profitability to 13.5–14%.
At the same time, according to Vladimir Chernov's estimates, coupons of companies from the top echelon will not fall so much - to 14-15.5%.
Along with this, the average deposit rates are now 14% per annum, which means that bonds are still more profitable for investors.
Sometimes banks raise funds at high interest rates, but invest them in risky or unstable projects. In such cases, there is a risk that the credit institution may lose some of its funds, as reported by Izvestia.
Russians' funds on deposits are guaranteed in the amount of 1.4 million in each bank by the deposit insurance system. It includes every credit institution that attracts deposits from individuals. In order to accurately receive the invested money back, Russians can deposit their funds in different banks within the specified amount.
Right now, the players are still offering quite profitable bets, but soon they may drop even more. Moreover, they will decrease faster than loans.
What does rising bond prices mean for the economy?
Bonds are a popular investment tool today, Andrei Barkhota pointed out. As interest rates in the economy decrease, the value of these securities increases — in a year, under a favorable scenario, they can add 5-7%, according to Denis Astafyev of SharesPro and Svetlana Frumina, head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
A decrease in the yield of ten-year OFZs to 12.5% by mid-2026 will lead to a 15-20% increase in bond prices, predicted Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment. And this is without taking into account the coupon income.
The yields on government bonds depend on the key interest rate, just like the interest rates on loans and mortgages, explained Vladimir Chernov. When prices for OFZs rise, their yields naturally fall, meaning the government and companies can borrow money on the domestic market cheaper, he added. They will be able to issue more bonds because low interest rates make borrowing more profitable.
The banks that hold these bonds can also lend at a lower interest rate. Over time, this also affects mortgages: if it is more profitable for the state and companies to take out loans, financial organizations gradually reduce rates for ordinary people, explained Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
All this suggests that the economic situation is developing according to a more restrained scenario: lower bond yields and rising bond prices reflect a moderate easing of the Central Bank's policy and cautious investor expectations, Andrei Barkhota noted. This is also confirmed by the statements of the regulator. Speaking at the forum of the Association of Banks of Russia, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, called the new draft budget disinflationary, Izvestia wrote.
Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina
This means that the government and companies will receive cheaper financing, banks will gradually reduce loan rates, and investors will continue to look for profitable instruments. The bond market is adapting to the new conditions, maintaining stability and ensuring smooth economic development without sudden fluctuations, the expert concluded.
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