Central Bank analysts have improved the forecast for the ruble exchange rate in the coming years

Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation have improved their forecast for the ruble exchange rate for the next three years. According to their expectations, in December 2025, the average dollar exchange rate will be 81 rubles, and the average annual exchange rate will exceed 100 rubles only in 2028. This is stated in the results of the December survey of the Central Bank, published on December 10 on the regulator's website.

"Analysts expect a stronger ruble than in the October survey over the entire horizon. The forecast for 2025 is 83.8 rubles per dollar (assumes an average exchange rate of 81.0 rubles per dollar in December 2025)," the message says.

According to the Central Bank, in the following years, the dollar exchange rate will grow more slowly than previously predicted: to 90.3 rubles in 2026, 97.6 rubles in 2027 and 102 rubles in 2028.

Analysts also revised the forecast for the key rate: in 2026, it will average 14.1%, and in 2027 — 10.3%, which is higher than previous expectations. Inflation is expected to reach 6.3% by the end of 2025, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the October forecast.

At the same time, experts lowered the forecast for GDP growth for all years up to 2028. However, real wages, according to their calculations, will continue to grow: by 4.1% in 2025 and by 2.7% in 2026.

A sensitive drop: the ruble is weakening against the yuan

Experts predict the formation of exchange rate corridors against the American and Chinese currencies

Yuri Moseikin, Doctor of Economics, Head of the Department of National Economics at the Patrice Lumumba RUDN University of Economics, said on December 5 that the downward trend in the dollar exchange rate could end before the end of this year. According to the expert, two factors will influence the growth of the dollar: the expectation of an increase in imports after changes in geopolitics and the need to replenish the budget.

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