A cup of patience: grain coffee in Russia has risen in price by almost a third in a year

Natural grain coffee in Russia has risen in price by 27-30% over the year, and the demand for drinks from it has decreased by 14-25%. This was reported to Izvestia by manufacturers, the growth is confirmed by data from Rosstat and analysts. The reasons are the drought in Brazil, the reduction of robusta production in Vietnam, inflation and the rise in the cost of logistics. At the same time, the largest fast food chains in Russia said that they were able to contain price increases due to large volumes of supplies. What will happen to the cost in 2026 and whether Russians will give up this drink is in the Izvestia article.

Why has coffee gone up in price

Natural grain coffee has risen in price in Russia by 25-29% over the year, and the demand for drinks from it has decreased by 14-21%. Manufacturers tell Izvestia about the increase in its cost, this is also confirmed by data from Rosstat and Kontur.Yandex. Market. According to analysts, based on an analysis of 9.8 million receipts for the period from September 1 to November 25, compared with the same period in 2024, demand for coffee drinks fell by 21% over the year, and the price rose by 25%.

The average retail prices for natural coffee beans and ground coffee by November 2025 amounted to 2.03 thousand rubles per 1 kg, which is 29.4% higher than last year's figures, Dmitry Leonov, deputy chairman of the Board of the Rusprodsoyuz association, told Izvestia. At the same time, according to him, for natural instant coffee they amount to 4.09 thousand rubles per 1 kg, which is 19.7% higher than in 2024.

According to Rosstat, from October 2025 to October 2024, the price of grain and ground grain increased by 27%. At the same time, instant coffee rose in price by only 20%.

— There is a direct dependence of the price on the exchange rate difference and the cost of raw materials on the stock exchange, — said Dmitry Leonov. — The exchange rate is relatively stable today. However, the price of coffee on the stock exchange, even after some decline, remains high — +28.16% year on year. In addition, the cost is affected by rising costs for logistics, packaging, utility tariffs, labor costs, and more.

According to him, no reduction in coffee consumption has been recorded in the mass segment yet. On the contrary, the demand for ground grain is growing now, although at the beginning of the year there was a slight shift of buyers towards instant options.

— A new type is gaining popularity — ground coffee in drips. Chains are actively expanding its range, and coffee shops also have a lot of such offers," said Dmitry Leonov.

The price increase affected all varieties: some increased in price more, others less, but on average the increase was about 30%, Sergey Pankratov, owner of the Coffee People roasted coffee company, told Izvestia. According to his forecasts, the cost of the drink will continue to rise further. One of the main reasons is the purchase of coffee by American traders, who purchase it in huge quantities for many years to come and thus influence pricing.

— I don't think this will affect the reduction of consumption of the drink in Russia, as it is addictive. Even if people replace it with chicory, the desire to drink coffee will remain. Maybe, of course, consumers will switch from average to cheaper drinks. However, those who are used to expensive varieties will remain true to their preferences," he believes.

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Which coffee has gone up the most

Espresso went up the most — by 25%, to 316 rubles, despite the fact that demand for it decreased by only 15%. In second place is the American one — a 22% increase in price, or 300 rubles per 300 ml. This drink lost 17% of consumers in a year. However, Russians began to actively abandon cappuccino — despite a relatively modest increase in cost by 13%, to an average level of 352 rubles, the demand for this drink fell by 21%.

— Raf and espresso became the leaders of consumer preferences over the year — sales decreased by only 14 and 15%, respectively. In general, in 2025, demand decreased disproportionately to the increase in the price of a drink in public catering. Such a rise in prices, in addition to inflation and logistics costs, as well as dependence on imported raw materials, can be explained by adverse weather conditions in producing countries, such as the drought in Brazil and a reduction in robusta production in Vietnam, Kontur analysts told Izvestia.Yandex. Market.

The price increase is also confirmed by the Agribusiness Expert and Analytical Center (AB-Center). According to analysts in September of this year, the average retail price of natural coffee beans and ground coffee increased by 29.3%, to 1.99 thousand rubles per 1 kg compared to the same period in 2024. At the same time, it increased by 18.3% for instant coffee, to 4 thousand per 1 kg. But coffee in fast-food establishments rose in price by 13.6%, to 110.9 rubles per 200 ml.

"This year's results will mark a record for average annual prices (comparable to the coffee crisis of 1977). In 2026, the cost will continue to remain at high levels, but it will still be slightly lower than the level of 2025 (by 10-15%), according to a study by the AB-Center, which is available to Izvestia.

Analysts also note that the rise in global grain prices began two years ago. According to The World Bank, in October of this year, the cost of arabica was $4.05 per 1 kg, and robusta was $2.62 per 1 kg. By February 2025, it had doubled to $9.05 and $5.81 per kg, respectively. In July of this year, there was a slight decrease. The cost per kilogram of Arabica dropped to $7.18, robusta — to $ 3.69. But by September, it had increased to $8.83 for Arabica and $4.66 for robusta.

At the same time, in November, as reported by Reuters, global prices began to decline sharply. The reason for this was the cancellation of US duties on imports of certain types of Brazilian agricultural products, including coffee and cocoa. It is noted that in September, the retail price of coffee in the United States increased by 40% year-on-year.

— The main reason for the increase in cost is the rise in price of raw materials. According to Russian roasters and suppliers, since the beginning of 2025, producer prices for green coffee have increased by an average of about 30%, up to 50% in individual countries," Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of the ACORT Presidium, explained to Izvestia.

According to him, these changes directly affect the selling prices of suppliers. Retail chains, for their part, are making efforts to curb cost growth through a well-developed large-scale procurement system and cost optimization.

— Retailers try to prevent a sharp increase in cost for consumers, therefore, they transfer changes in purchase prices to the shelves smoothly and gradually. In federal retail chains, grain coffee is available from 120 rubles per 100 g, and hot takeaway — from 49.99 rubles per glass," said Stanislav Bogdanov. He also believes that coffee remains a product with steady demand.

— Over the past decades, the habit of drinking this drink has become so ingrained in the consumer behavior of Russians that it makes this category insensitive to changes in cost. Nevertheless, federal retail always focuses on purchasing power and takes measures to prevent a sharp rise in prices for high—demand goods in the interests of consumers," the business representative explained.

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Will the demand for coffee fall in Russia

Meanwhile, restaurateurs look at the problem of raising the price of a drink in different ways. So, in Russia's largest fast food chain, Delicious and Point, they said that the company manages not to increase the cost.

— Our suppliers work on a full—cycle basis - from the purchase of green grain to the packaging of the finished product. Thanks to long—term relationships with suppliers, the network has the opportunity to maintain affordable purchase prices," the company's press service told Izvestia.

They also noted that in three years of operation, the chain has already sold a total of more than 351 million servings of coffee. The company analyzes the interests of consumers by offering new flavors and formats of drinks. This allows you to keep the guests interested in coffee throughout the year.

On the other hand, Buntaro's chef-barista Anna Volkova admits that the prices of coffee in public catering are rising.

— Supplies have become more difficult. The main reason is sanctions and, in this regard, the increased cost of logistics," she explained to Izvestia.

At the same time, she is convinced that Russians will not give up coffee, as the popularity of the drink is only growing, including among the younger generation.

Prices have increased less in Russia than in the rest of the world, but they will continue to rise in 2026, Georgy Ostapkovich, scientific director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Development, told Izvestia. According to him, the main reason for this is not duties and sanctions, but crop failure due to bad weather and drought. Coffee is a cyclical commodity, its value increases once every five years, but after a good new crop is harvested, prices decrease, the expert noted.