Scientists talked about a sharp slowdown in life expectancy growth
A new international study by a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has shown that the significant gains in life expectancy achieved in rich countries at the beginning of the 20th century have slowed down. According to the results, no generation born after 1939 will live to an average life expectancy of 100 years. This was reported on October 26 by Science Daily magazine.
The study was conducted by scientists Hector Pifarre y Arolas from the La Folette School of Public Administration, Jose Andrade from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Carlo Giovanni Camarda from the National Institute for Demographic Research. Using data from the Human Mortality Database, they analyzed data from 23 high-income and low-mortality countries, using six independent methods to predict mortality trends.
"The unprecedented increase in life expectancy that we achieved in the first half of the 20th century is unlikely to be repeated in the foreseeable future. In the absence of any major breakthroughs that significantly prolong human life, life expectancy would still not reach the rapid growth seen at the beginning of the 20th century, even if adult survival increased twice as fast as we predict," said Pifarre y Arolas.
According to the publication, from 1900 to 1938, life expectancy in rich countries increased by about 5.5 months per generation. A person born in 1900 could expect to live an average of 62 years, while a person born in 1938 could expect a life expectancy of about 80 years, which is a dramatic improvement in just a few decades.
However, for generations born between 1939 and 2000, progress slowed to about 2.5–3.5 months per generation, depending on the statistical model used. Mortality forecasting models — analytical tools that predict future life expectancy using data on past and present mortality — have allowed researchers to design several possible future scenarios for human longevity.
"We predict that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 years old on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone. This decrease is largely due to the fact that previous spikes in life expectancy were due to a significant increase in survival at a very young age," said Andrade.
At the beginning of the 20th century, a sharp decrease in infant mortality caused by medical innovations, improved sanitation and improved living standards significantly increased the average life expectancy. Currently, infant and child mortality rates in rich countries are extremely low. This means that future achievements should come from improving survival at an older age. The study concludes that such achievements are unlikely to match the explosive pace of progress achieved 100 years ago.
Although forecasts can never be completely accurate, the authors emphasize that their results provide important insights for policymakers who are preparing for the future. Unpredictable events such as new pandemics, medical breakthroughs, or significant social changes may change these trends, but current data points to a long-term slowdown.
This slowdown, as emphasized, has implications beyond national statistics. Although the study focuses on populations rather than individuals, slower life expectancy growth may affect how people approach savings, retirement, and long-term care. As Pifarre y Arolas and his colleagues suggest, both governments and individuals may need to adjust their expectations and plans for future decades.
Earlier, on October 7, Rector of the Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University Petr Glybochko called early diagnosis and prevention of cardiovascular and oncological diseases key ways to reach the age of 120. He stressed that personalized medical support can increase life expectancy.
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