The oceanologist questioned the reliability of forecasts about changes in the oceans

Forecasts of changes in the world's oceans for the next tens and hundreds of years may turn out to be unreliable. Alexander Osadchiev, a Russian oceanologist, Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences at MIPT, head of the Laboratory of Arctic Oceanology, and a leading researcher at the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia on October 9.

"Forecasting any changes in the world's oceans for tens and hundreds of years is likely to be unreliable, because the processes that we are witnessing now are relevant for the present, for next year," he said.

The expert stressed that at the moment it is completely unknown what will happen in 300 days, since it is unclear what the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will be, how further climate change will occur and ocean circulation will be rebuilt.

Osadchiev clarified that currently the rate of water level rise in the world's oceans is not so dramatic. According to the expert, it is possible to adapt to it — to pay attention to the construction of dams, coastal protection structures, hydraulic engineering devices that prevent drowning in vulnerable objects.

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On the same day, Philip Sapozhnikov, a leading researcher at the Laboratory of Ecology of Coastal Bottom Communities at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported on the threat of flooding of several Russian cities due to global warming and rising sea levels.

He specified that Azov, the southern part of Rostov-on-Don, the coastal part of Kerch, the villages of northern Kuban, part of Adler, the coastal regions of St. Petersburg, part of Kronstadt, almost the entire Sestroretsk, as well as the northern territories of Varandeya, Naryan-Mar, Salekhard and the port of Nakhodka in the Far East may be affected.

According to the oceanographer, in 2100 the ocean level may rise by 0.3–0.65 m, and in the worst case — up to 1.3 m. At the same time, he noted that by 2300 the mark could reach 5.6 m.

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