Departure of the battle: Hamas is losing credibility among Palestinians

By the next anniversary of the events of October 7, 2023, the Palestinian society is showing a marked decrease in confidence in Hamas. Polls show that fewer and fewer residents consider an attack on Israel to serve national interests, and faith in the movement's victory in the war is rapidly fading. Instead of supporting the armed resistance, there is growing frustration and anxiety about the future of the Gaza Strip. Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that the current situation reflects the deep fatigue of the Palestinian society from the war and the decline in confidence in traditional forces. Against the background of the weakening of Hamas and the low legitimacy of the Palestinian National Authority, a political vacuum is emerging, calling into question the future governance of the Gaza Strip and the effectiveness of post-conflict settlement plans.

Palestinians doubt Hamas

Public sentiment in Palestine has changed markedly. According to surveys conducted by the Jerusalem Center for Media and Communications (JMCC) and the Palestinian Center for Political and Sociological Research (PCPSR), the level of support for the Hamas movement and optimism about the outcome of the war in Gaza had significantly decreased by October this year.

The share of Palestinians who believe that the Hamas attack on Israel has benefited national interests has fallen from 45% last year to 30.9%. At the same time, the number of those who believe that the attack has harmed the interests of Palestine has increased from 30.2% to 35.2%.

Optimism about the outcome of the war is also rapidly fading: in the fall of 2023, 67.1% of respondents believed that the conflict would end in favor of Hamas, but now this figure has dropped to 25.9%. Almost half of the respondents are convinced that there will be no winner at all. At the same time, expectations of the movement's growing popularity are also falling. In October 2023, more than 70% of Palestinians thought that the war would strengthen the position of Hamas, but now this figure has dropped to 41.4%, while the share of those who predict a decline in the influence of the movement has increased to 22.2%.

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In the meantime, negotiations in Egypt are starting — Hamas has handed over the list of surviving hostages to the mediators.

Neither the Palestinian National Authority nor Hamas yet have a clear strategy for the post-conflict period, according to Palestinian sociologist Sari Hanafi.

— Hamas has been greatly weakened politically, and it is increasingly being asked to negotiate the future of Gaza after the war. The movement has virtually no role left in governing the exclave. It continues to resist, but in my opinion, there is no hope that Hamas will be able to play a significant role in the post—conflict period," Hanafi explains in an interview with Izvestia.

The PCPSR study conducted in early May 2025 in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip shows similar trends. In March 2024, 71% of respondents considered the October 7 attack to be the "right decision," but now only 50% do. At the same time, in Gaza itself, the share of supporters of this position is even lower — 38%, while in the West Bank — 59%.

The majority of respondents do not believe in the victory of Hamas, although 42% still believe that the movement will retain control of the Gaza Strip after the end of the war. Among the residents of the exclave itself, this figure is noticeably lower — 28%, while in the West Bank it is shared by 51%.

The political vacuum in Gaza

Against the background of deteriorating living conditions, more and more Gazans are thinking about leaving the exclave. Almost half of them declared their readiness to turn to Israel with a request to help emigrate to third countries through Israeli ports and airports.

According to polls, 48% of Gazans supported the protests that have taken place in recent months demanding that Hamas relinquish power in the strip. At the same time, the proportion of protest supporters in the West Bank does not exceed 14%. In Palestine as a whole, two thirds of the respondents opposed the demonstrations, which indicates a strong fragmentation of society.

Palestinian security expert Mohammed al-Masri believes that the survey results are not surprising, as they reflect reality: Israel's disproportionate response to the Hamas attack has led to massive Palestinian casualties and destruction. He stressed that the majority of ordinary residents strive for safety, dignity and normal living conditions.

— Pessimism has become a natural reaction after two years of genocide. This does not mean that the Palestinians have given up on resistance, but it raises doubts about whether Hamas will be able to achieve tangible results in the current conditions," the expert told Izvestia.

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The radical group insists on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory of the sector and the gradual release of hostages.

Against the background of falling confidence in Hamas, assessments of the activities of President Mahmoud Abbas have slightly improved. According to JMCC, his approval rating has increased from 26.8% to 34.4%, although 81% of respondents in the PCPSR survey still demand his resignation.

The share of those who expect the Gaza Strip to remain under Hamas control has decreased from 52.2% in May 2024 to 34.4% today. At the same time, the number of those who predict international governance of the exclave has increased from 17.3% to 27.8%.

"Two years after the events of October 7, Palestinian society is showing deep internal divisions and war fatigue," Mohammed al-Masri added. In his opinion, the future of Gaza will largely depend on the implementation of the plan of US President Donald Trump.

According to Iraqi expert Safaa al-Assam, the current mood in Palestine reflects deep disillusionment with traditional movements. According to him, the declining credibility of Hamas and the weak legitimacy of the Palestinian National Authority are creating a power vacuum in Gaza. Society is tired of war and destruction, and Palestinians are increasingly wondering who can provide stability and security.

The specialist emphasizes that, even despite the disappointment, the desire to resist remains, but now it is increasingly expressed in the search for new political alternatives and pressure on existing government structures.

In these circumstances, the issue of post-conflict settlement remains extremely difficult. Trump's plan involves a hostage exchange, the withdrawal of Israeli troops and international governance of the Gaza Strip, but society is tired of the war, traditional movements are losing legitimacy, and the power vacuum creates uncertainty: it is unclear who will be able to ensure the stability and security of Palestine in the post-conflict period.