On the verge of rupture: Israel is ready to return to strikes on Gaza

A formal truce between Israel and Hamas has not yet been reached, and if political efforts fail, fighting in the Gaza Strip will resume. This was stated to Izvestia by an official Israeli source. Two years after the Hamas attack, the parties are back at the negotiating table in Egypt. The main goal is to agree on the terms of the hostage exchange and the ceasefire in the exclave. Negotiations are complicated by the fact that some of the hostages are in areas inaccessible to the movement's fighters due to the presence of the IDF. In addition, Hamas opposes disarmament, which involves the plan of US President Donald Trump.

Israel and Hamas begin talks in Egypt

On the eve of the second anniversary of the large-scale attack by the Palestinian Hamas movement on Israel, indirect talks have started in Egypt. Their goal is to free the hostages and put an end to the armed conflict. The meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh should outline the future of the Gaza Strip. The focus is on the 20—point plan proposed by the US President, which, in particular, provides for the release of all hostages, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and the transfer of control of the territory to the international stabilization mission.

ABC reported that the son—in-law of the American leader, Jared Kushner, and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, went to Cairo to coordinate the "technical details" of the agreement.

At the same time, an Israeli official source told Izvestia that there is no formal truce with Hamas yet, but "the operational status has been changed." At the same time, the interlocutor warned that in case of failure of political and diplomatic efforts, Israel is ready to return to active hostilities.

According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, 63 Palestinians have been killed and 153 injured in Israeli strikes in the last 24 hours alone. Since the beginning of the conflict, after the attack by Hamas fighters on the border territories of Israel, the death toll of Palestinians has reached 66 thousand, more than 168 thousand were injured. In October 2023, during the Hamas attack, about 1.2 thousand people were killed in Israel, and 251 were taken hostage. Since the start of the ground operation in the exclave on October 27, 2023, 466 Israeli soldiers have died in combat.

The Hamas attack was a shock that returned the Palestinian issue to the world agenda and put Israel in an awkward position in front of the international community, but at the same time turned into a grave humanitarian catastrophe for Gaza, Egyptian expert Tarek al-Bardisi believes. In his opinion, Hamas underestimated the scale of Western support for Israel and did not calculate the consequences of its actions.

— Israel used the October 7 attack as an excuse to restore internal unity and justify a military campaign. As a result, the resistance gave the enemy a reason for large-scale violence, and the real political achievements turned out to be minimal. Therefore, an honest and bold reassessment of the strategy of the Palestinian resistance is necessary today for the sake of preserving the Palestinian project itself," Tarek al-Bardisi told Izvestia.

The Israeli delegation arrived in Egypt the day before. It included Ron Dermer, Minister of Strategic Affairs, representatives of the Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence services, Ophir Falk, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Policy, and Gal Hirsch, Coordinator for hostage affairs.

According to the Financial Times, the Israeli side insists that the agreement enshrines the right to resume hostilities if Hamas violates the terms of the deal. However, Washington, which is promoting its own peace plan, recommended "not looking for loopholes" and focusing on a diplomatic settlement. According to Axios, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a private conversation with Donald Trump, expressed dissatisfaction with the position of Hamas, calling it "a cause for concern, not for joy."

Israeli officials believe that Hamas is not yet ready to accept the American offer. In this regard, the movement intends to seek changes in the negotiations in Egypt, according to the Israeli state television and radio company Kan.

According to Israel, Hamas' reservations will become one of the three main problems during contacts. In addition, the movement's refusal to disarm and simultaneously release all hostages remains a potential point of disagreement. According to media reports, Israeli negotiators do not intend to make concessions on the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip.

Communication problems in Hamas

According to Hamas statements, the movement's delegation, led by Khalil al-Hayya, intends to discuss not only the hostage exchange, but also a cease-fire, as well as a mechanism for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. However, the movement itself recognizes that it will be extremely difficult to conduct such an exchange quickly. After a series of Israeli attacks on the leadership of Hamas, the link between military commanders and the political wing has actually been destroyed, the Emirati newspaper National notes.

Communication problems now exist between Hamas leaders abroad, who are in Qatar and Turkey, and fighters operating in Gaza itself. By the way, this is Khalil al-Haya's first trip to Egypt after he survived the Israeli airstrike on Doha, directed against the movement's top leadership.

— Perhaps Trump believes that the hostages are in prison or in one place. But in fact, they are distributed in different areas of the enclave. According to my assessment, some hostages are in areas inaccessible due to the presence of the Israeli military there, and the current conditions on the ground do not allow the movement's fighters to reach them," Hani Salah, an expert on Palestinian resistance issues, told Izvestia.

Although, according to the Palestinian Maan news agency, Hamas fighters began transferring the bodies of the dead hostages to one place for subsequent transfer to the Israeli side. According to the publication, the movement also handed over to intermediaries the lists of detainees, both alive and dead, which should ensure transparency of the upcoming exchange. Until now, Israel did not have accurate information about the number of surviving prisoners, there were only tentative estimates. Israel expects that US President Donald Trump will insist on the full release of all detainees as part of a single transfer. On October 4, the American leader himself published a map showing the line to which, according to him, Israel agreed to withdraw troops in order to launch the process of exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

The main stumbling block remains the issue of the disarmament of Hamas. Israel, with the support of the United States, demands the complete abandonment of armed groups by the movement. In response, its representatives declare that such a step is possible only after the recognition of the Palestinian State and the end of the Israeli occupation.

"Without a political solution to the issue of statehood, it is impossible to talk about disarmament," a source in the movement said in a comment to Reuters.

On October 5, the Foreign Ministers of Arab and Islamic States expressed support for the Egyptian efforts and called on the parties to reach an agreement as soon as possible. However, it is possible that the process will be lengthy and multi-level.

The first phase, concerning the hostage exchange, may be relatively successful, but the subsequent stages — discussing the withdrawal of troops, the transfer of control of the sector and security issues — will face serious difficulties. Recall that 48 hostages are still being held in Gaza, about 20 of them may be alive.