The Bank of Russia expects inflation to decrease to 4% in 2026

The Bank of Russia has announced a projected decrease in inflation to the target level of 4% by 2026. This is indicated in the latest report of the Central Bank, published on September 2 on the regulator's website.

"Annual inflation will continue to decline in the second half of 2025, and by December it will be in the range of 6.0–7.0%. The basic forecast of the Bank of Russia assumes that, taking into account the current monetary policy and as the economy returns to a balanced growth trajectory, annual inflation in 2026 will return to the target level of 4% and stabilize at it in the future," the forecast says.

The regulator assumes this direction as one of the most important for restoring balance in the economy. An important point in the forecast is to maintain tight monetary policy in the coming years, which should stabilize inflation and support economic growth in the long term.

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The Central Bank of Russia also predicted a range of key interest rates in 2026 at the level of 10.5–11.5% in the case of a disinflationary scenario of economic development. In the baseline scenario, it is expected that in the context of a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure, the average key interest rate in 2026 will be in the range of 12-13%.

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