The Bank of Russia has given a forecast for the key rate for 2025 and 2026

In 2025, the average key rate of the Bank of Russia will be 18.8–19.6% per annum, and in 2026 the average level is expected to decrease to 12.0–13.0%. This is stated in the report "The main directions of the unified state monetary policy of the Bank of Russia for 2026 and the period 2027-2028", published by the Central Bank on September 2.

"With a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure, the average key rate will be in the range of 18.8–19.6% per annum in 2025 and 12.0–13.0% per annum in 2026. In 2027 and 2028, the key rate will return to the neutral area," the document says.

The projected reduction in the key rate is due to a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure in the country. In 2025, inflation is expected to continue to decline, which will allow the Bank of Russia to begin adjusting its monetary policy. With an inflation target of 4%, the nominal neutral rate for the economy will be in the range of 7.5–8.5% per annum.

The inflation forecast for 2025 is 6.0–7.0%, which will be the result of monetary policy and the impact of indexed prices and tariffs. In 2026, according to the Central Bank's forecast, inflation should return to the target level of 4%, which coincides with the main guideline of the Bank of Russia in terms of price stabilization.

Key rate 2025: forecast in September, expert opinion

Economists expect that at the Central Bank meeting on September 12, the decline in an important indicator will continue.

On July 25, the central bank immediately lowered the key rate by 200 percentage points, to 18%. The next meeting will be held on September 12, presumably, it will again decide on a rate cut.