Radiation Fund: what will happen to oil prices due to US strikes on Iran

Against the background of US strikes on Iran and the risks of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may jump to $ 100 per barrel, but then they are likely to be adjusted by OPEC+ actions, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On June 23, quotes of major assets reacted rather cautiously to the escalation of the conflict: fuel prices fell back to $75 per barrel, and stock indexes of leading economies, including the Moscow Stock Exchange, declined only within a percentage. Nevertheless, the IMF has already predicted the large-scale impact of the conflict on the global economy. According to experts, the growth rate of global GDP will slow down below 2%. For more information, see the Izvestia article.

How much will oil prices rise after the US strikes on Iran

The US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have escalated the issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz. On June 22, the Parliament of the Islamic Republic voted to close this waterway. This statement was made by Ismail Kousari, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission. However, the strait cannot be closed without the approval of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In turn, his adviser Hossein Shariatmadari said that the closure of the strait should take place as soon as possible. In his opinion, the waterway should be closed to ships from the United States, Great Britain, Germany and France, countries that support Israel's actions and accuse Tehran of escalation.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for almost 20% of the global trade in "black raw materials" and more than 30% in liquefied natural gas.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio believes that Iran's possible decision to close the Strait of Hormuz will be an additional escalation of the conflict, which will entail a response from the United States. In his opinion, this will lead to an instant oil shock. Prices may soar to $250-300 per barrel, global inflation and a decline in GDP will begin, and markets will collapse. The same assessment was given by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iraq Fuad Hussein.

Nevertheless, on the morning of June 23, the price of Brent crude oil on the London ICE exchange only exceeded $81 per barrel, which is the maximum since the beginning of 2025. Futures grew by more than 5%. And by the middle of the day, the quotes dropped to $75.5 per barrel.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, the price reduction is due to the fact that concerns about the immediate cessation of supplies from the Middle East due to the closure of the strait began to subside. Moreover, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, by the evening of June 22, there were no signs of threats to commercial shipping through the strait.

— If Tehran did not make a decision to close the strait immediately, then the likelihood that the threats will be fulfilled decreases as time passes. Besides, it is not beneficial for Iran itself," she said.

According to her, Iran's oil exports amount to 1.5 million barrels per day. China buys most of the raw materials at great discounts. And that is why Washington called on Beijing to prevent the closure of the strait.

— Almost the entire volume of Iranian oil is sent to China, while a significant share of supplies from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East region also goes to China, India, and, of course, along with a number of European countries. I think that is why Tehran has not yet made a final decision on closing the Strait of Hormuz. After all, in this case, Iran's closest allies, that is, China, would have been affected," says Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

According to him, this would lead, on the one hand, to disruption of supplies to China, and on the other hand, to a sharp increase in oil prices, which, again, is unfavorable for economies that depend on energy purchases. At the same time, Iran's main "enemy", the United States, on the contrary, could benefit, since they have now become exporters of both oil and gas.

"Therefore, on the one hand, of course, blocking the strait would be a problem for them, but on the other hand, they would receive additional income by exporting their own energy resources," the expert believes.

Ekaterina Kosareva added that if the strait is still blocked, the cost of oil will not exceed the historical highs of 2008, when more than $ 140 per barrel was given.

— If Iran closes the strait, it will be short-lived. Interested countries and allies will find a way to lift the blockade. And a short—term jump in prices to $100 per barrel may be offset by an increase in OPEC+ production," she believes.

What the US strikes on Iran mean for the global economy

The US attack on Iran took place over the weekend, when the world's stock exchanges were closed. This smoothed out the panic effect — there was no chain reaction of traditional markets, which often increase pressure, said Alexander Kraiko, a leading analyst at Cifra Markets, a crypto broker.

On June 23, global markets reacted quite calmly: the Chinese Shanghai Composite index and the German DAX added 0.5%, while the Japanese Nikkei, the French CAC, and the British LSEG declined within 1%. Bitcoin dropped from a level of about $106 thousand to $98 thousand on Sunday, but by Monday it began to recoup the fall — now it is trading around $ 101-102 thousand, said Alexander Krayko of Cifra Markets. The cryptocurrency will remain in a zone of turbulence with a tendency to local growth, according to independent expert Andrey Barkhota.

Nevertheless, there are alarming statements from world leaders. The situation around Iran may pose broad risks to the global economy, given the already uncertain situation, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said earlier. She warned that US strikes on Iran could have broader consequences than the impact on energy — energy prices could have "secondary and tertiary consequences."

According to open data, after the US and Israeli airstrikes, all projects of Chinese companies in Iran have been suspended. According to various estimates, the United States could destroy China's $400 billion investment in Iran, which was supposed to become a transportation artery.

The impact of escalation on the global economy will depend on the duration of the conflict and its participants, says Georgy Ostapkovich, research director at the HSE Center for Market Research. In this case, it is quite possible for the economy to fall, the expert believes. Global GDP will slow down: if the global economy is now expected to grow by 2.2% by the end of 2025, now it is likely that the pace will not exceed 2%.

— This means that energy consumption will decrease and energy-supplying countries, including Russia, may suffer losses. In particular, China's GDP may fall, and this is our main buyer of energy resources, so China will buy fewer exports from Russia," Georgy Ostapkovich explained.

Nevertheless, so far the Moscow Exchange index, the main indicator of the Russian market, has been stagnating around 2,700 points. At the same time, quotes from the oil sector showed growth: shares of Rosneft, Tatneft, Lukoil added within 2%.

With rising oil prices, the supply of currency increases, and accordingly, the ruble exchange rate should strengthen to 73-75 per dollar, the expert predicted. However, the national currency will be affected by other factors that will lead to its weakening by the end of the year.

Russians are unlikely to feel the economic consequences of this conflict directly, but given that many vegetables and fruits are imported to Russia from Iran, disruptions are possible here, said Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory for Analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy. However, there are many countries that can make similar deliveries, the scientist noted.

Gold as a traditionally protective asset may become a beneficiary of global uncertainty, independent expert Andrey Barkhota believes. Although the precious metal dropped slightly in price on June 23, by 0.25 percentage points to $3,377 per ounce, it will continue to gain in the future, although not at such a rapid pace as in the first half of the year.

It is difficult to assess the short-term consequences, but in the future, when Iran's response becomes clear, the conflict may have a more serious impact on the markets and the economy as a whole, Alexander Abramov concluded.