How Trump's diesel deal affects markets and politics. Analysis

Following a conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump announced the temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel. The White House announced the conclusion of a deal that will bring 4.8 million tons of fuel to the world market and lower its prices. Trump announced the agreement after Ukraine refused to stop attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure. What will be the consequences of the diesel deal — in the Izvestia article.

What does the deal consist of?

• The negotiations between the presidents of Russia and the United States led to a rather unexpected event for world politics and economics. Trump announced a deal that will allow diesel from Russia to enter the American and global markets. According to the head of the White House, Moscow will immediately release 300 thousand tons of fuel, in November supplies will increase to 500 thousand tons, after which another 1 million tons will enter the market. Then Russia will supply up to 3 million tons of diesel as soon as possible, taking into account the condition of its refineries.

• To implement the deal, Trump suspended US sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. The U.S. Treasury Department has issued general license No. 135, authorizing operations for the sale, transportation, unloading and import of diesel from Russia, including directly to the United States. The permit will be valid until April 7, 2027.

• In turn, the Russian government partially lifted the ban on diesel exports, which was introduced to maintain a stable situation on the domestic fuel market. The ban has been in effect since July for all fuel producers, with the only exceptions being supplies under international agreements and humanitarian exports. The ban on diesel exports was supposed to be in effect until October 31, but was suspended on October 10 after a conversation between Trump and Putin.

Why did Trump ask for a deal

• The main reason for the deal was the Trump administration's desire to lower record-high domestic diesel prices ahead of the midterm congressional elections. As of October 10, the average retail price in the United States was $6.28 per gallon, or $1.65 per liter. This is 71% more than on the same date a year earlier. The high cost of diesel leads to an acceleration in prices for industrial goods and agricultural products, that is, it spurs inflation, and this is an important factor in the United States before the elections.

• In addition, the well-being of those American states where Republicans mostly vote depends on diesel prices, and it is their votes that Trump wants to preserve by proposing to open the American market to Russian fuel. The deal was intended to demonstrate to voters concrete steps to combat inflation and rising prices, which began after supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and a spike in oil prices, which continue to stay above $100 per barrel.

• Politics became a separate reason for the deal. Trump made it clear in his comments that the deal was the result of his disappointment in the position of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. The head of the White House pointed out that the Ukrainian leadership ignored his requests to stop attacks on Russian refineries in order to stabilize the oil products market and curb diesel prices. The deal with Russia has become a tool for Trump to put pressure on Kiev and a way to boost his rating before the election.

How will the deal affect the diesel market

• The parameters of the deal announced by Trump suggest that approximately 35.8 million barrels of Russian diesel will enter the market (approximately equal to 4.8 million tons). Global consumption of this fuel is about 30 million barrels per day. In the United States alone, demand for petroleum distillates, which include diesel, is at 3.6 million barrels per day.

• At the same time, the Russian government is confident that Russia will be able to supply up to 22.5 million barrels of diesel per month (equivalent to 3 million tons of diesel) in the future. In 2025, Moscow exported 293.9 million barrels of diesel, that is, an average of 805 thousand barrels per day and 24.5 million barrels per month. The diesel market is traditionally in surplus for Russia, meaning that production exceeds domestic consumption, which makes it possible to export fuel to countries in need of it.

Barrel operation: diesel from Russia may arrive in the USA in late October — November

How will this affect the Russian domestic market and global fuel prices?

• Although the estimated volumes for which contracts still need to be concluded and the geography and calendar of supplies determined can only compensate for small amounts of consumption within a few days, the deal has already caused relief in the oil products market. U.S. diesel futures fell 4% to $4.68 per gallon, indicating optimism among traders and consumers. Bidders are already considering the possibility of additional supplies, which will significantly bring down wholesale prices.

• It is important to note that Russian diesel remains under EU sanctions and is not supplied to its countries. However, its import into the United States will allow American manufacturers to be more flexible in exporting their fuel outside the country. In total, the United States sells about 1.76 million barrels per day to other countries, and importing Russian diesel will allow them to sell large reserves to Europe, which is suffering from a shortage of petroleum products, but refuses any petroleum products from the Russian Federation.

How the deal affects politics

• In addition to the economic effect, the diesel deal also has serious political significance. It indicates a turning point in relations between the United States and Russia, which have been strongly affected by the conflict in Ukraine in recent years. Since 2022, any issue concerning Moscow and Washington has been considered by the American side solely taking into account Kiev's position. Trump's rise to power in 2025 almost shook this approach, but he continued to act. Despite the White House's desire to cooperate with Russia in a variety of areas that Ukraine has nothing to do with, no serious agreements have been reached that would have been publicly announced.

• Now, despite Zelensky's protests about the diesel deal, Trump has acted in a way that benefits him, without regard for Kiev's opinion. For almost the entire of his second term, he maintained nominal favor for Ukraine, continuing to provide it with intelligence data and allowing arms supplies, albeit not for free. But in a situation where Trump needed help before the election and needed to reassure voters worried about high diesel prices, he chose the principle of "America first" and the side that was ready to cooperate.

• There was a time when for the White House, any question came down to whether the United States would benefit from this or whether they would reduce their costs. Now Trump looks at the world through the prism of energy prices, and in cases where one side not only does not make a profitable offer in this regard, but also contributes to the aggravation of the energy crisis, he is ready to go to confrontation. Therefore, the current situation threatens Zelensky with a direct conflict with Trump, who has already stated that Ukraine needs a new president, who, as the American leader hopes, will not use military capabilities to damage Russia's fuel and energy complex.