The number of bond defaults is at its highest in 10 years. What does this mean for an investor

Summary:

• In 2026, the Russian stock market faced a record wave of corporate bond defaults in 10 years. The companies owed investors over 45 billion rubles.

• The main reason for companies' problems is tight monetary policy. A business that borrowed money at 10-12% a few years ago is now forced to re-credit at 25-30%. For many companies in the high-yield bond sector, this is a direct path to a cash gap. The exception is the largest default of the year ("EuroTrans" gas station with a debt of 30 billion rubles), which is not related to the rate, but to the criminal machinations of the management.

• There is no systemic risk to the economy yet. The problems are concentrated on the periphery of the market — in the segment of VDO and CFA, which occupy only 3% of the total corporate debt (over 30 trillion rubles). Nevertheless, the era of "carefree" investment is over: capital is flowing massively into money market funds and floaters of reliable companies. If bonds of medium and small companies are being purchased, it is necessary to carefully study the financial statements and pay attention to the "red flags". Strict portfolio diversification should also be followed.

• In case of default of the issuer, the investor has two ways: to dump the paper at a discount and fix the loss, or to wait for the restructuring through a representative of the bondholders (PVO). It is unprofitable to bring the case to bankruptcy — bondholders are in the third line of creditors and rarely receive payments.

The Russian debt market has faced a record wave of corporate bond defaults over the past 10 years. Since the beginning of 2026, more than 30 companies have not paid about 45 billion rubles on time, and retail investors are particularly sensitive to such events: according to the Central Bank, by the end of 2025, individuals accounted for 45% of investments in distressed bonds. The largest volume today is accounted for by the high-profile criminal case "Eurotrans", and the rest, smaller organizations simply could not cope with servicing expensive debts against the background of tight monetary policy. ""Izvestia" figured out why the era of careless investment in high-yield securities has come to an end, whether it is possible to return your funds after default and what "red flags" in the reports to calculate the future bankrupt.

What is a bond default and does the company have a life after it?

A default on a bond is a violation by the issuer of its obligations. That is, the company borrowed money from investors on the stock exchange, but on the appointed day was unable to pay the coupon (interest) or repay the nominal value (the body of the debt). There are two types of defaults:

• A technical default occurs if the money is not received by investors on the appointed day. However, according to the law, the company has a certain period during which it must transfer money (10 business days). Sometimes this situation happens due to trivial technical issues - for example, the bank delayed the transaction or the issuer made a mistake in the details. If the money arrives within 10 days, the incident is considered settled, although the fallout and damage to reputation remain.
• The actual default occurs if the conditional "grace period" has expired, but there is still no money. This is already an official recognition that the company cannot service its debt.

At the same time, an actual default is just a reason for creditors to start bankruptcy proceedings, but the company itself does not close on the same day.

A business has two main ways: to try to negotiate with creditors on restructuring (for example, to delay payments for a couple of years or lower the rate) or to really go into a long and painful bankruptcy procedure.

If the company has not paid once, in theory there is a chance that everything will return to normal. But in practice, this happens extremely rarely. As a rule, one missed payment triggers a domino effect: lenders demand early repayment of other issues, banks freeze credit lines, and suppliers require prepayment. Only a few people manage to get out of such a spiral.

How many defaults occurred in 2026 and is it a record?

There is no single statistics on the number of defaults in Russia. According to ACRA, 13 issuers failed to fulfill their obligations to investors in the first half of 2026, compared to eight a year earlier. In total, there are 21 default events in six months (one company may delay payments on several bond issues at once), whereas there were 24 in the whole of 2025.

The situation worsened at the end of the summer. According to Frank Media Invest, there were more than a dozen default events on the market every week. """""""""" The lion's share falls on the same group of issuers, which have a lot of securities in circulation: these include Eurotrans, Sobi-Leasing, Sibavtotrans, Monopoly, Naftatrans Plus Shopping Center. In total, more than 30 companies made non-payments in July and August.

According to estimates by the Moscow Stock Exchange, since the beginning of 2026, bond issuers have not paid investors at least 45 billion rubles on time. Moreover, according to the statistics of the Bank of Russia, the share of retail investors (individuals) in investments in distressed bonds reaches 45% — that is, it is mainly citizens who lose income, and not large institutional investors (such as NPFs).

There was a similar number of bond defaults in the mid-2010s. According to the ACRA agency, in the crisis years 2014-2016, the share of companies that defaulted reached 5% of the total number of issuers at its peak. "" At that time, about two dozen classic corporate borrowers (the largest of them were "UTair" and the developer "SU-155"), as well as a number of banks, whose licenses were massively revoked by the Central Bank, did not fulfill their obligations to investors.

However, both today's values and the figures for 2014-2015 are far from the absolute record for defaults in Russia, which was set in 2008-2009. Then, against the background of the global financial crisis, 95 issuers failed to fulfill their obligations on 126 issues at once, and the volume of non-payments exceeded 200 billion rubles.

Why was the stock market hit by a wave of bond defaults in 2026

The main reason for this is the tight monetary policy, which has been in place since 2023.

Three or four years ago, when rates were low, small and medium-sized businesses were actively borrowing money on the stock exchange at 10-12% per annum. This money was invested in business expansion. But in 2026, the time has come to pay off old (cheap) debts. To pay off investors, companies need to re-credit (issue new bonds or take out a loan from a bank). But this has to be done already at the current 25-30% per annum. The profitability of most businesses simply does not allow servicing such an expensive debt. All operating profits are spent on interest payments, the cash register empties, a cash gap occurs and, as a result, default.

At the same time, the largest default of 2026 — "EuroTrans", its bond debts are estimated at more than 30 billion rubles — is associated not so much with a rigid PREP as with a failed management model and criminal fraud. Since the spring, the company has allowed technical defaults, but continued to aggressively increase debt (including through the CFA) and pay huge dividends.

"In early September 2026, full-fledged defaults were recorded on all Eurotrans bond issues." At the same time, the security forces uncovered a criminal scheme.: The Ministry of Internal Affairs opened a criminal case on embezzlement (Part 4 of Article 160 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). According to the investigation, the company's management is involved in the theft of fuel from the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Moscow region. The chairman of the Board of Directors of "Eurotrans" and a number of top managers were sent to jail, and the police officers involved in the scheme were dismissed and detained.

Which other issuers are at risk of going into default in 2026

The number of defaults continues to grow. According to Cbonds, by mid—August 2026, 48 unique full-fledged defaults had already occurred on the market - twice as many as in the same period last year. At the same time, ACRA expects that the share of defaulted companies will remain below 5% of the total number of issuers by the end of the year in the absence of new external shocks.

The main problem of the next year and a half is the so—called repayment wall. In 2026-2027, many companies will have to pay off the bodies of debts on issues placed during the period of low interest rates. For many over-leveraged companies in the high-yield bond sector, which will have to repay the lion's share of their loans in the next year and a half, this is an unbearable burden. Cash gaps will become an inevitability.

However, according to rating agencies, the overall default rate by the end of 2026 will remain moderate — below 5% of the total number of issuers. The fact is that big business (blue chips with AA and AAA ratings) has a margin of safety.

How many defaults occurred in 2026 and is it a record?

There is no single statistics on the number of defaults in Russia. According to ACRA, 13 issuers failed to fulfill their obligations to investors in the first half of 2026, compared to eight a year earlier. In total, there are 21 default events in six months (one company may delay payments on several bond issues at once), whereas there were 24 in the whole of 2025.

The situation worsened at the end of the summer. According to Frank Media Invest, there were more than a dozen default events on the market every week. """""""""" The lion's share falls on the same group of issuers, which have a lot of securities in circulation: these include Eurotrans, Sobi-Leasing, Sibavtotrans, Monopoly, Naftatrans Plus Shopping Center. In total, more than 30 companies made non-payments in July and August.

According to estimates by the Moscow Stock Exchange, since the beginning of 2026, bond issuers have not paid investors at least 45 billion rubles on time. Moreover, according to the statistics of the Bank of Russia, the share of retail investors (individuals) in investments in distressed bonds reaches 45% — that is, it is mainly citizens who lose income, and not large institutional investors (such as NPFs).

There was a similar number of bond defaults in the mid-2010s. According to the ACRA agency, in the crisis years 2014-2016, the share of companies that defaulted reached 5% of the total number of issuers at its peak. "" At that time, about two dozen classic corporate borrowers (the largest of them were "UTair" and the developer "SU-155"), as well as a number of banks, whose licenses were massively revoked by the Central Bank, did not fulfill their obligations to investors.

However, both today's values and the figures for 2014-2015 are far from the absolute record for defaults in Russia, which was set in 2008-2009. Then, against the background of the global financial crisis, 95 issuers failed to fulfill their obligations on 126 issues at once, and the volume of non-payments exceeded 200 billion rubles.

Why was the stock market hit by a wave of bond defaults in 2026

The main reason for this is the tight monetary policy, which has been in place since 2023.

Three or four years ago, when rates were low, small and medium-sized businesses were actively borrowing money on the stock exchange at 10-12% per annum. This money was invested in business expansion. But in 2026, the time has come to pay off old (cheap) debts. To pay off investors, companies need to re-credit (issue new bonds or take out a loan from a bank). But this has to be done already at the current 25-30% per annum. The profitability of most businesses simply does not allow servicing such an expensive debt. All operating profits are spent on interest payments, the cash register empties, a cash gap occurs and, as a result, default.

At the same time, the largest default of 2026 — "EuroTrans", its bond debts are estimated at more than 30 billion rubles — is associated not so much with a rigid PREP as with a failed management model and criminal fraud. Since the spring, the company has allowed technical defaults, but continued to aggressively increase debt (including through the CFA) and pay huge dividends.

"In early September 2026, full-fledged defaults were recorded on all Eurotrans bond issues." At the same time, the security forces uncovered a criminal scheme.: The Ministry of Internal Affairs opened a criminal case on embezzlement (Part 4 of Article 160 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). According to the investigation, the company's management is involved in the theft of fuel from the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Moscow region. The chairman of the Board of Directors of "Eurotrans" and a number of top managers were sent to jail, and the police officers involved in the scheme were dismissed and detained.

Which other issuers are at risk of going into default in 2026

The number of defaults continues to grow. According to Cbonds, by mid—August 2026, 48 unique full-fledged defaults had already occurred on the market - twice as many as in the same period last year. At the same time, ACRA expects that the share of defaulted companies will remain below 5% of the total number of issuers by the end of the year in the absence of new external shocks.

The main problem of the next year and a half is the so—called repayment wall. In 2026-2027, many companies will have to pay off the bodies of debt on issues placed during the period of low interest rates. For many over-leveraged companies in the high-yield bond sector, which will have to repay the lion's share of their loans in the next year and a half, this is an unbearable burden. Cash gaps will become an inevitability.

However, according to rating agencies, the overall default rate by the end of 2026 will remain moderate — below 5% of the total number of issuers. The fact is that big business (blue chips with AA and AAA ratings) has a margin of safety.

But for businesses with a lower rank, the forecast is more alarming. If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not begin a cycle of steady rate cuts in 2027 (and there are no prerequisites for a sharp easing yet), the wave of bankruptcies will begin to spread. It will go beyond the frankly "junk" segment (ratings B and C). Companies with BB and even BBB ratings will begin to experience problems with liquidity and debt servicing — that is, a strong medium-sized business, which yesterday was considered a completely reliable investment.

Does the wave of defaults mean that the Russian economy has massive problems

Despite the fact that there are dozens of defaults, and the amount of suspended funds has exceeded 45 billion rubles, this is less than 1% of the entire Russian debt market. The volume of the corporate bond market exceeds 30 trillion rubles, and its foundation is the bonds of corporate giants (first—tier issuers with AA and AAA ratings). Currently, the problems are concentrated on the periphery — in the third echelon, the segment of high-yield bonds and digital financial assets, which generally occupy about 3% of the market.

A large number of defaults at the moment is not a sign of the destruction of the economy, but a natural and even expected side effect of tight monetary policy. When money is expensive, the market goes through a phase of natural selection. Business models that could only exist by constantly feeding on cheap loans are dying out. They will be replaced by those who know how to manage costs and generate real cash flow even at double-digit rates.

Many investors hope that the regulator will see the scale of the problem and begin to save the market: urgently reduce the key interest rate or force banks to restructure the debts of troubled companies. But this is unlikely to happen. For the Central Bank— inflation is a priority. The Bank of Russia is unlikely to change its macroeconomic course in order to save several dozen over-indebted small and medium-sized businesses.

How are the priorities of investors on the Moscow Stock Exchange changing in connection with mass defaults

For the Russian stock market, massive defaults on high-yield bonds mean a massive reassessment of risks on the part of investors. High-premium instruments have finally shown their inherent risk. For a long time, euphoria reigned in the debt market — against the background of accelerating inflation, private investors swept away any third-tier bonds with a coupon above 25%. Now the illusion of such a profitable and safe investment has been dispelled.

The VDO segment is currently experiencing a classic sell-off (mass sale) with the drying up of liquidity. At the slightest hint of problems (delayed publication of IFRS or negative news), investors begin to panic to dump securities. In addition, even for bonds of still healthy third-tier companies, quotes are creeping down. Moreover, the market puts the risk of future bankruptcies into prices: in order for investors to now agree to buy the debt of a small business, the effective yield to maturity (YTM) on such securities soars to an abnormal 35-40% or higher.

Capital is already flowing into more conservative and protective instruments that, in the era of rigid PREP, provide good returns with minimal risk: money market funds and floaters (floating coupon bonds) of reliable corporate borrowers. In the first eight months of 2026 alone, the net inflow to money market funds amounted to 382.7 billion rubles. Floaters have completely captured the debt market — they now account for more than 46% of all new placements. The era when it was possible to blithely buy "everything" on the stock exchange for the sake of a high premium is officially over.

What an investor should do if the issuer defaults: instructions

If the company has committed a technical default, the coupon payment will not be credited to the account on the appointed day. The broker, through its application, informs the investor about the delay in payment in a corresponding notification. As a rule, the price of paper immediately drops.

Step 1. Decide: cut the loss or wait

While the period of technical default lasts (the same 10 working days), trading in paper is usually not stopped, but already at this point the price in the stock exchange cup can drop to 30-50% of the nominal value. After recognizing a full—fledged default, the exchange transfers it to a special trading mode - "D" (defaulted bonds). The investor faces a tough choice:

• Dump the paper into a glass. This way, a painful loss is recorded, but in return, at least some real money is received, which can be transferred to reliable assets. In addition, nerves and time are saved.
• Stay in the paper. You can rely on the issuer to miraculously find the money before the grace period expires (the chance is minimal) or to propose an adequate restructuring plan. However, if it comes to bankruptcy, the money will be "frozen" indefinitely.

Step 2. Find your Air Defense

In Russia, there is an institution of representatives of bondholders (PVO). This is a legal entity hired by the company itself during the issue of securities, which will help consolidate creditors' claims, organize a meeting and go to court on behalf of investors. By law, the PVO must protect the interests of all investors, demand early repayment and file lawsuits.

To find your air defense, you need to go to the Mosbirzhi website, the RusBonds portal or the information disclosure server (e-disclosure.ru ) and find your issue card — the air defense contacts are always listed there. Many representatives have their own Telegram channels or chat rooms for investors of distressed securities.

At the same time, in practice, due to a conflict of interests (after all, the issuer pays for the work of the air defense system), there are cases when the air defense system does nothing in default, limiting itself only to the publication of formal news. If the air defense system is inactive for one month after default, any private investor gets the right to go to court on their own.

Step 3. Take part in the learning process

If the company does not want to go bankrupt, it will try to negotiate with creditors. The PVO initiates the OSVO, a general meeting of Bondholders. It usually takes place in absentia, and you can vote through your broker's app. A restructuring plan is usually on the agenda: for example, the issuer suggests extending the debt repayment by three years, reducing the coupon, or paying off the debt in installments. We need to study the plan and vote. If the majority agrees, the debt will be restructured. If not, the air defense goes to court.

Step 4. Be patient

If the case has reached court and bankruptcy proceedings, you should prepare for the marathon. The bankruptcy procedure of a legal entity in Russia takes an average of 2-3 years. The company's property is sold at auction, and the proceeds are divided among creditors in strict order. First, the company will pay off the lawsuits, pay salaries to employees and pay off debts to the tax service. Then the money will be received by banks, whose loans are usually secured by firm collateral (real estate, equipment).

Holders of ordinary unsecured bonds in bankruptcy are usually included in the third line of creditors. At the same time, collateral creditors have an advantage in allocating funds from the sale of the collateral. Therefore, the actual percentage of repayment depends on the structure of the assets and liabilities of a particular debtor and is unknown in advance.

How not to buy the paper of an issuer that is on the verge of default

Unlike bank deposits, funds on the stock exchange are not insured against issuer defaults — the investor assumes 100% of the market credit risk. The only real protection is a thorough study of the reports before the purchase.

Checklist: what to look at in the reports

• The "Net debt/EBITDA" indicator. If it exceeds 3.5–4 (that is, net debt is several times higher than annual EBITDA), at current rates, the company is teetering on the brink of survival, giving almost all of its earnings to banks and bondholders.
• Negative operating cash flow. If a business does not generate real money from its core business for two or more consecutive quarters, this is a sure sign of an imminent cash gap.
• The debt pyramid. The issuer enters the stock exchange with a new bond issue not for the sake of expanding its business or purchasing equipment, but solely to pay off old debts.
• Under various pretexts, the company delays the publication of its IFRS or RAS financial statements, suddenly changes its auditor, or hides its ownership structure.

In addition, tough diversification will be required to maintain its assets in today's Russian stock market. One issuer from the high-yield bond sector should account for no more than 2-3% of the total portfolio. In the event of a default by one company, such a loss would not be fatal to the total capital.

It is also important to assess soberly whether the additional 3-5% annual return (compared to reliable corporate bonds) is worth the risk of losing 100% of the invested money. Finally, it is worth looking towards protective assets, such as floaters of reliable corporate borrowers or into liquidity funds. They are less sensitive to changes in loan rates and provide returns adequate to the strict policy of the Central Bank.