A new defense alliance has emerged in the Middle East. What does this mean?
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a new defense agreement aimed at maintaining regional stability. All three states are interested in strengthening their own defense industries and deterring external threats. There are no details yet about the obligations of the parties, however, according to sources, the result of negotiations between these countries lasting almost a year was influenced by the crisis in the Middle East caused by the confrontation between Iran and the United States. Why a new defense alliance is needed – in the Izvestia article.
The essence of the agreement
• Despite the fact that so far the parties have not disclosed details regarding the content of the agreement, the composition of the participants hints at its essence. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are major Sunni states, and one of these three countries also possesses nuclear weapons. Turkey and Pakistan also share a land border with Iran, while Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic share a border across the neutral waters of the Persian Gulf.
• The agreement is an extension of the defense alliance that was concluded in 2025 between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. According to him, an attack on one of the parties "by any military means" is considered an attack on both. For now, Pakistan is trying to avoid involvement in the Iranian-American conflict, preferring the role of mediator, but the need for effective deterrence of the countries of the region is growing. The war between the United States and Iran has shown that the set of tools for influencing Iran is limited, while the republic itself has an exceptional lever of pressure in the form of the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for the global economy.
• Information about the signing of the agreement scheduled for August 7 appeared on the morning of the same day, and a few hours earlier, the kingdom's media learned that the Yemeni Houthis were allegedly preparing an attack on Saudi Arabia. Now, in the event of such an attack, Turkey, with its powerful arsenals and NATO membership, can join the retaliatory strikes, thanks to which a retaliatory strike against Ankara is unlikely due to the possible activation of the NATO collective defense clause.
• As a result of such a pact, Pakistan's nuclear potential, ballistics and human resources, Saudi Arabia's financial influence and Turkey's advanced defense industry and military experience are combined. The latter, according to sources, considers the alliance as a necessary measure of reinsurance in the event that the US capabilities turn out to be limited or Washington's own interests outweigh the needs of its allies.
• The agreement may include joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, joint production of weapons, and training of specialists. For Turkey, this is an opportunity to expand exports of its defense industry, for Pakistan, to strengthen the role of its armed forces in the Islamic world, and for Saudi Arabia, an opportunity to diversify suppliers and enlist powerful allies against the backdrop of Houthi attacks.
Why cooperation is possible
• The Middle East is a volatile region, with conflicts in one country easily spreading to its neighbors. At the same time, the high level of well–being and the developing economy of many of them set the task for the governments of such states to prevent involvement in armed confrontations, and preventive measures come to the fore.
The defense alliance of the Middle Eastern countries and their neighbors has become a natural response to existing challenges. This includes terrorism, countering extremist groups, and Iranian "proxies," as well as instability in Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Iran. Also today, the problem of ensuring the safety of sea lanes and the free passage of ships in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf is in full swing. There is a separate issue of the Strait of Hormuz.
• All three countries, although to varying degrees, are aimed at containing Iran, one of the traditional sources of instability in the region along with Israel. However, if you look a little deeper, it becomes clear that the essence of strained relations with Tehran is competition for influence (in particular, over the countries of the South Caucasus) and energy supplies.
• The development of the military-industrial complex is also an important common interest of the three countries, which makes it possible to conclude such a pact. Until recently, the countries of the Middle East bought weapons from the United States, Great Britain, France or Russia, which was easier and cheaper. However, recent years have shown that this model has its limitations, and the supplier may refuse to sell. Therefore, the development of our own defense industry is of paramount importance.
• Turkey has already succeeded significantly in this, which over the past 20 years has become a country with one of the fastest growing military-industrial complex. It can offer its allies proven technologies, good engineering schools, and mass production experience, including UAVs. However, this requires significant investments, and this is what Riyadh can offer. The Kingdom was one of the world's largest buyers of weapons, but most of them were produced abroad. The country has recently launched economic reforms under the Vision 2030 program, intending to change this situation. However, this requires what Turkey has to offer: technology, engineers, and production licenses.
The Vision 2030 program ("Vision of Saudi Arabia 2030") is an ambitious project that involves large—scale reforms in the country's economy, education, healthcare and tourism. The implementation began in 2016 and led to a reduction in the kingdom's budget deficit. In the future, reducing dependence on oil production and the development of alternative energy sources were also considered. One of the main advantages of the kingdom was its geographical location and access to global trade routes.
• Pakistan also has a well-developed military-industrial complex, within which Islamabad produces small arms, ammunition, armored vehicles, and missiles. However, its special role lies in the fact that it is the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons. Now, thanks to Pakistan, the three countries will be able to provide nuclear deterrence under the agreement. All this gives them independence from external suppliers, diversification of supplies and a sense of security, which is necessary for economic development in an unstable region.
Political prospects of the Union
• This pact has already been dubbed the "Islamic NATO" in the world press, but such conclusions are premature. At the moment, it is an alliance based not so much on the need to counteract someone in particular, as it was when the North Atlantic Alliance was created, but on the pragmatic interests of all parties. Its goals and objectives are primarily economic development, strengthening its own military-industrial complex and reducing dependence on external suppliers.
• The signing of this trilateral agreement is a long–term effort, but with clear advantages in the present tense. It is not certain that the agreement will help Riyadh defend itself against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, but it will definitely warn against attacks on Saudi targets in the kingdom.
• At the same time, if the union is successful, other States may join it. If we evaluate by common interests, Azerbaijan, Qatar, the UAE and Jordan may be among the candidates. Then a full-fledged regional security system will be formed.
• But there are also external constraints that can prevent such a development. Thus, the three signatory countries have different external allies and different attitudes towards each other's allies. Pakistan cooperates closely with China, Saudi Arabia is developing relations with it (as well as with Russia), but Turkey, as a NATO member, may have its own policy towards them. So, Ankara is still deciding on the acquisition of American F-35 fighter jets, which is hampered by the presence of Russian S-400 complexes in service.
• However, even if the number of participants in the new defense alliance does not change and there will be three of them, this in any case underlines the global trend towards strengthening the role of regional associations instead of losing weight to global organizations. While numerous NATO members are trying to build a unified line, it is easier for small regional unions to come to an agreement.
• A regional coalition with a variable number of participants is more likely to emerge, which will be built around the defense industry, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and crisis coordination. With a large number of participants, such a coalition can become the core of a new security system in the Middle East region, especially if the US role there weakens. Then it will be another cell in the updated global security architecture, which is gradually becoming a network from a single global one. In Europe, it is represented by NATO, in the Asia–Pacific region by alliances such as QUAD and AUKUS, and in the Middle East by the new alliance.
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