The Houthis have announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. What is the threat of this

Yahya Saria, the military representative of the Houthi movement, announced on July 20 the beginning of the naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, citing the "siege" of Yemen by Saudi forces as the reason. The statement became a new round in the escalation of the old conflict between the countries after the exchange of blows on July 13. How the blockade of shipping will affect the Saudi economy and the oil market, and whether the Houthi movement will be able to carry out its threats — in the Izvestia article.

Escalation of the conflict

• The escalation in relations between the group and Saudi Arabia occurred after a strike on the runway of the airport in Sanaa on July 13, when a plane carrying representatives of the Houthi movement returning from the funeral of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei was landing. Despite the fact that the Yemeni authorities claimed responsibility for the attack, the Houthis blamed the strikes on the country's main ally, Riyadh, and attacked the Saudi Abha airport. A new round of tension put an end to the truce in the conflict that lasted from 2015 to 2022, when a coalition of Arab states led by the Saudis bombed the Yemeni capital Sanaa and invaded the territory of the country controlled by the Houthis.

The Houthis said they were imposing a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia in response to the "siege" of the Yemeni people, the "plundering of the country's resources" and the blockade of ports and airports. The threat looks real, as the group has previously carried out attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Its representatives said that both the port infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and ships entering or leaving these ports would be affected.

• The escalation of the conflict between the Yemeni Houthis and Riyadh will affect both other States in the Middle East and the global economy. Attacks directly on ships threaten all shipping in the region, as the group has already stated that it will not determine the cargo's ownership before launching strikes — the ships' entry into Saudi ports will be the decisive factor. Supplies of energy, raw materials, and food may suffer, leading to disruptions in international logistics and exacerbating shortages already caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A decrease in traffic through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, the main trade route between Europe, Asia and the Middle East, could lead to a significant increase in the cost of supplies and higher inflation in the European Union and Asian countries.

The Iranian authorities and the Houthis threaten to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Why is this important?

• Egypt, which receives income from the passage of the Suez Canal by ships, will suffer significantly. For him, the risks of navigation in the Red Sea and a possible drop in traffic mean a decrease in foreign exchange earnings to the country. Thus, according to Cairo, the reduction in revenues from the Suez Canal due to military operations in Gaza since October 2023 has amounted to $9 billion.

Threat to oil supplies

• For Saudi Arabia, the naval blockade could be another devastating blow to oil exports, blocking the route through which the country could supply oil in the conditions of the closed Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh pumps the main volumes of oil — about 70% — through the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, which supplies India, China and Asian countries. If this route is blocked, the damage to the crude oil market will amount to about 2.5 million barrels per day.

• The oil price has already reacted to the threats of the Houthis: on the morning of July 21, the price of oil rose to $ 88.45 per barrel, despite the fact that at the end of June it was $72.92. In the United States, gasoline prices have again exceeded the sensitive limit of $4 per gallon (about 3.7 liters), which provokes public discontent and increases pressure on the ruling Republican Party. With refineries at maximum capacity, the United States is unable to contain rising fuel prices on the domestic market, and the ongoing conflict with Iran and the blockade of oil tankers by the Houthis in the Red Sea threaten supply disruptions amid dwindling American crude oil reserves.

• Foreign experts have previously urged not to be fooled by the decrease in the cost of the reference grade of crude oil on world markets, since, in addition to supplies, oil refining is also suffering: compared to last year, its volumes decreased by 5 million barrels per day. Moreover, the reserves of the United States, which has become the world's main exporter of petroleum products, are already running out due to peak seasonal domestic demand.

• A reduction in fuel reserves could lead to a slowdown in the global economy, and major powers are already preparing for such a scenario. For the first time in three years, the European Central Bank raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points from June 17: it was supposed to keep them at this level until September, but risks to shipping in the Red Sea may affect the regulator's decision by the July 23 meeting. A possible rate increase is also being discussed in the United States.

• If the Strait of Hormuz was the main route for oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf countries, then a tenth of the total global trade turnover passed through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait before the first Houthi attacks related to Israel's military actions in Gaza in 2023. Although traffic decreased by 3% in 2025 due to the Houthi attacks, the route remains an important channel for energy and raw materials exports to the Middle East, Asia and Russia. Due to the increased frequency of attacks on ships, some companies prefer to extend the route for cargo safety and allow ships to bypass South Africa, which significantly increases costs, and delivery takes two weeks longer.