For the first time, Germany was not elected a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Why is this important
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- For the first time, Germany was not elected a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Why is this important
With 104 votes, Germany failed to win a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for 2027-2028 for the first time, while Portugal and Austria beat it, receiving 134 and 131 votes, respectively. Representatives of the German opposition accused the German government of a weak international campaign and insufficient activity on the world stage. But Germany's failure in the Security Council elections is a symptom of a more serious problem, read more about it in the Izvestia article.
The crisis of the political model
• Germany is facing a marked weakening of its position in the international arena: one of the signs of this is the defeat of the country in the struggle for a non—permanent seat on the UN Security Council, an event that many consider unprecedented for a state that has long been one of the most influential countries in Europe.
• After the Second World War, the country deliberately abandoned the role of a classical great power. Germany developed industry, trade and economy, but did not rely on military power and influence through force. After the unification of the country, the authorities expected that the status of Europe's largest economy and one of the main donors to the EU and the UN would automatically bring it greater political weight. This led to demands to grant Germany a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Roughly speaking, Germany's post-war political model was based on three factors: U.S. military protection, cheap energy from Russia, and high trade turnover with China. All this made it possible to develop the economy, build a welfare state and provided the basis for high prestige on the world stage. But in the early 2020s, all three foundations cracked: the rejection of cheap Russian gas, the US demand to increase defense spending, a change in the trade balance with China slowed economic growth, and domestic political problems only intensified the crisis. This has led to a struggle for leadership in the eurozone.
The positions are too different
• Many states of the Global South are dissatisfied with Germany's foreign policy, in particular, its tough stance on Ukraine and rejection of the idea of a multipolar world. Such approaches distance Germany from a significant part of the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, which are gaining political weight, and prevent it from claiming the role of mediator in global conflicts.
• Against the background of the war against Iran, it was Germany's policy towards Israel that could become the decisive factor. Berlin has repeatedly been criticized for harsh measures against participants in pro-Palestinian protests inside the country and its refusal to recognize a Palestinian state in the foreseeable future. Since October 2023, Germany has abstained from voting on UN resolutions related to Gaza and Palestine, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has continued close contacts with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Defeat postpones German plans to gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council with the right of veto. The German Foreign Ministry explained the failure by the late start of the election campaign and declared Moscow's negative agitation against Berlin, without providing evidence. The failure has increased pressure on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose government is supported by only 15% of citizens. At the same time, Germany remains the second largest donor to the United Nations after the United States: in 2024, the country transferred 4.4 billion euros to the organization.
• However, the defeat at the UN is not only due to Germany's problems. For example, Portugal has benefited from strong ties in the Portuguese—speaking and Spanish-speaking world, and its position is being strengthened by influential Portuguese people, President of the European Council Antonio Costa and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
• Austria, unlike Germany, does not supply weapons to Ukraine. It was the neutral status that helped Vienna gain the votes of countries that focus on Russia or adhere to a policy of non-alignment. In addition, Austria launched a campaign for a seat in the Security Council a few years earlier than Germany. However, the result of the vote reflects a broader trend — the decline of Germany's authority among parts of the international community. Moreover, even its authority in the European region is now being questioned.
Influence in Europe
• After 16 years of rule by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which were accompanied, as can be seen today, by serious mistakes in energy, economic and migration policies, and then three years of the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Germany has reached one of the most difficult periods in its modern history. The country is not only going through a crisis of economic weight transformation into a political one, but is also increasingly perceived as an economically weakening country. At the same time, the problem goes far beyond Germany itself, since the future of Europe's largest economy is closely linked to the future of the entire European Union. If Germany fails to regain its position, the stability of the EU will also be at risk.
Friedrich Merz came to power promising conservative reforms and restoring Germany's leadership position in Europe, but a year later his government is facing extremely low ratings. The country needs large-scale reforms in industry, energy, defense, the pension system and the labor market, but the German government cannot agree on most key issues. Conservatives advocate increased competitiveness and reduced regulation, while Social Democrats rely on social support and the preservation of the current model of the welfare state.
• The causes of the crisis are much broader than the rejection of cheap Russian energy resources. After 2022, rising energy prices did hit businesses, but analysts point to a range of factors: an aging population, a shortage of workers, insufficient investment, excessive bureaucracy, and increased competition from China. Already, people over the age of 65 make up about 22% of the German population, and by 2030 their share may reach 25%. At the same time, China has transformed from the largest buyer of German products into a direct competitor. Chinese companies are increasingly displacing German manufacturers in the markets of automobiles, industrial equipment, chemical products and high technologies.
• The growing popularity of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is associated with public fatigue from traditional parties, migration problems and the lack of a convincing vision of the future in power. German policy is increasingly focused on protecting the existing but increasingly outdated order rather than proposing new development projects. As a result, the AfD becomes the main channel of protest voting. In some eastern regions of Germany, scenarios are already being considered in which all major parties will unite to prevent the right from coming to power, but this only reinforces the feeling among some of the population that the political system has closed in on itself and no longer represents the interests of voters.
Strengthening the role of the Global South
• Germany's electoral failure also showed that the influence of Western states is no longer unconditional. The countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, which seek to determine the international agenda independently, are becoming increasingly important. One of the symbols of this trend was the election of Kyrgyzstan, whose campaign relied on the support of Asian States and the broader solidarity of the countries of the Global South, advocating for more equitable representation in world institutions. Zimbabwe and Trinidad and Tobago also won new seats on the Security Council.
• The Global South has ceased to be the economic fringe of the world and has become one of the key centers of development. Today, the countries of the Group of 77 at the United Nations, representing the Global South, account for about 18% of global GDP. Due to the average economic growth of 4.2% per year compared to 1.9% in developed countries, they provide a significant part of global economic growth.
The Group of 77 (G77) is an association of developing countries in the United Nations, which appeared in 1964. At first, it included 77 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, now there are 134 of them, but the name remains the same. Together, these countries discuss and coordinate their positions on important global issues: economy, trade, climate, development, and the work of international organizations.
• In 2025, global trade increased by 7% and exceeded $35 trillion for the first time. The fastest growth was shown by trade between the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America — plus 8%. At the same time, the role of developing country associations is increasing: the share of BRICS exports in world trade has risen from 15% in 2008 to 20% in 2024, while the share of ASEAN countries has increased from 6% to 9%. An additional advantage remains the demographic factor: a large young population forms a large consumer market, while developed countries are facing an aging population.
• Simultaneously with economic growth, the political influence of the States of the Global South is also changing. Its strengthening makes the results of elections in international organizations less predictable for Western countries. If earlier the support of the EU and NATO allies practically guaranteed the success of European candidates, now the votes of Asian, African and Latin American countries are becoming increasingly important.
When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:
- political scientist Alexander Rara;
- senior researcher at MGIMO Artem Sokolov.
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