The United States will delay the supply of weapons to Europe due to the war in Iran. What does this mean?

The United States has warned European allies about possible delays in arms supplies due to the urgent need to replenish stocks after the war with Iran. In particular, this concerns ammunition for missile systems and air defense systems. Similar restrictions may affect allies in Asia, including Japan and South Korea. How such delays will affect the European security system is described in the Izvestia article.

Changing supplies

• The United States is the world's largest arms supplier, accounting for 43% of global arms exports. However, Washington periodically restricts supplies to the allies, disrupting the deadlines stipulated in the contracts. So, in 2024, the transfer of missiles for Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems was suspended in order to send them to Ukraine faster. Assistance to Kiev also led to delays in the supply of weapons, including Stinger missiles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers, to Taiwan, to which the United States has been supplying weapons since the 1950s to deter China.

• Currently, the delays will affect ammunition for the HIMARS and NASAMS systems, as well as other missiles. NASAMS systems are used by many countries from Norway to Oman, and HIMARS complexes are in service with 14 US partners, including Ukraine, Poland and the UAE.

• The United States has warned European allies, including Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states, about possible delays in arms shipments. This is due to the urgent need to replenish the reserves depleted during the war with Iran. Similar measures may extend to allies in Asia. The Pentagon said it was reviewing requests and supplies based on current military needs.

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• At the same time, the United States approved the sale of weapons to allies in the Middle East worth more than $8.6 billion. The deals were accelerated according to an emergency procedure, which Washington explained as an urgent need amid the conflict with Iran.

• It will take up to two years for the US defense industry to ramp up production and close the arms shortage. Against this background, American investors are investing more actively in the US military sector, as conflicts in the world increase the demand for weapons.

• The United States has changed its approach to preparing for global threats. In the 1990s, Washington's strategy was to be ready to wage wars in two regions simultaneously. Over time, the United States abandoned this strategy, focusing on a possible conflict with one enemy in one theater of military operations. As a result, the current war with Iran has exposed the limits of US military superiority.

Impact on Europe and Ukraine

• Delays are primarily related to the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, under which states purchase American weapons with logistical support and approval from the U.S. government. Ukraine receives weapons according to a different scheme — the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). Purchases are coordinated by NATO at the expense of partner countries. Supplies to Kiev have already slowed down since the beginning of the US war with Iran: due to a shortage of ammunition, Patriot installations were sometimes left without missiles.

Dependence on the United States for defense has remained a key issue for Europe. At the NATO summit in 2024, the EU and Canada agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with a real target of about 3.5%. Already, Europe's military budgets are about 50% higher than in 2022, and by the end of the decade they may reach 500-700 billion euros per year, of which about 30% will be spent on the purchase of new weapons. However, the continent remains dependent on the United States in key military areas, including intelligence, command and control, long-range strikes and cloud systems, and import substitution could cost $300 billion and take decades.

• Europe has assumed a major role in supporting Ukraine and is buying American weapons for it through the PURL program. About $5 billion has already been spent on this, and further purchases are planned at about $1 billion per month.

Cooling of relations

• For indecisive U.S. support in the conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump sharply criticized European leaders, threatened to reduce the presence of American troops in three European countries and held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which a brief truce was discussed without the participation of Ukraine. The US administration admits that Iran has become the main topic, and the discussion of the Russian-Ukrainian war has noticeably decreased. Even key special envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are mostly focused on Iran.

• Europe is responding by accelerating its own defense initiatives. The EU has approved a loan to Ukraine for €90 billion. At the same time, the creation of a European Defense Union is being discussed, which may include the United Kingdom, Norway and Ukraine. European arms manufacturers are increasing their capacity amid doubts that the United States will be able to fulfill all arms supply obligations through PURL.

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• Confidence in US support is declining in Ukraine: according to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, only 40% of citizens now believe in the necessary American help. Confidence in possible American security guarantees dropped from 39% to 27%.

• Against the background of these changes, European and American politicians are increasingly talking about a strategic gap. The United States has already approved the allocation of $400 million in aid to Ukraine, but Europe is doubtful about future supplies. The idea of creating an autonomous security system is growing in Europe. However, complete separation from the United States will be a slow process, as American influence and military support remain key to Ukraine and Europe.

What does this mean?

• The United States can use the dependence of Europe and Ukraine as a political tool, limiting the supply of weapons or support for systems like the F-35 aircraft, which depend on American software and spare parts. The potential reduction of the American presence in Europe, including the withdrawal of up to 30,000 troops and reduced intelligence support, will create additional risks for NATO and Ukraine, where there is already a shortage of air defense systems and missiles.

• Despite this, a complete breakup of the union is unlikely, since both the United States and Europe remain mutually dependent on each other for military and industrial purposes, and rapid replacement of American capabilities remains extremely difficult and expensive for Europe.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• military expert Vasily Dandykin;
• Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist.