The orientalist warned of a chain of consequences in the event of a US attack on Iran

If the United States decides to attack Iran, Tehran's response is likely not to be an open military conflict with Washington. The most likely scenario is actions through allies and proxy structures, cyber attacks and targeted provocations in the Persian Gulf, as well as increased pressure on Israel. This was stated on February 19 by political analyst Dmitry Brije to Izvestia.

At the same time, Iran, according to him, understands the limits of direct confrontation, but cannot afford to look weak.

"It is important to understand that Iran is not a victim in the classical sense. It is an active regional player that has been building a system of influence through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen for decades. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has long become not just a military structure, but a geopolitical tool," the expert noted.

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Despite the dialogue, the US military is preparing for a military operation against the Islamic Republic.

He said that the rhetoric of the American administration, including the use of slogans about "great Iran", as well as support for opposition symbols and figures, indicates the possibility of escalation in the near future. However, the format of possible actions remains uncertain: earlier, harsh statements were made against the background of protests in Tehran, followed by a decrease in public activity.

Brydje stressed that the region has long been in a state of low-intensity hidden conflict. At the same time, the military scenario on the part of the United States, in his assessment, carries serious risks. Even a limited strike could lead to the activation of Shiite armed groups in Iraq, increased tensions around Israel, threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a spike in oil prices.

"Any external strike strengthens the hard line inside Iran. Those groups that advocate careful modernization are losing room for maneuver. A military strike almost always strengthens those against whom it is directed," the political scientist explained.

In addition, he added that the United States is trying to prevent Iran from becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, while Tehran is trying to ensure its own security and maintain regional influence. This is the strategic contradiction between the parties, which cannot be resolved solely by force.

According to the expert, the probability of a full-scale operation remains low, but the risk of a limited strike remains, especially if there is a reason that can be presented as a forced response. He called the main danger a possible strategic error in assessing the enemy's reaction, since conflicts in the Middle East often began precisely because of an incorrect calculation of the threshold for permissible actions.

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On February 18, CBS News reported that the United States is ready to strike Iran this Saturday. It is noted that part of the Pentagon's troops has already been deployed to the Middle East. At the same time, US President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision.

The Axios portal also reported on the high probability of a military clash between the United States and Iran. It was noted that the Israeli government is aiming at regime change in Tehran and is already preparing for military operations.

The day before, Iran's supreme leader urged not to pre-empt the outcome of negotiations with the United States on issues related to the Iranian nuclear program, noting that this was unwise. He noted that such initiatives are actually aimed at forcing Iran to renounce its terms.

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