The expert assessed the prospects for price correction in the secondary housing market

In the secondary housing market in 2026, a more noticeable price correction may begin in a number of regions after the weak dynamics of last year. About where the decline will be most noticeable and which segments will be under pressure. Valery Tumin, Director of the Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties, told Izvestia about this on February 5.

According to him, cities where stagnation or negative dynamics were observed in 2025 are at risk. These markets include Rostov-on-Don and Stavropol, where growth was only 0.9%, Murmansk, with a 6% drop, as well as Novosibirsk and Novokuznetsk. The expert notes that these territories are particularly sensitive to the availability of mortgages: as loans become cheaper, buyers will return, but sellers will have to actively reduce prices in order to compete with new buildings.

In the Moscow region and Krasnodar Territory, where last year the cost of housing has already decreased by 2.7–3.3% due to an oversupply of supply and an overflow of demand to the largest cities, further decline, according to Tumin, will be more moderate. These markets have partially adapted to the new conditions, and the potential for a sharp correction there is already limited.

"The structure of demand will shift in favor of the mass segments — comfort class and economy, which now account for 85% of the supply. This is where the main purchasing power is concentrated, and it is these apartments that are most sensitive to changes in mortgage conditions," the source said.

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Business class and premium, whose share does not exceed 7.5%, will rise in price more slowly or will remain stagnant, since their audience is less dependent on lending.

At the same time, the gap between prices in the primary and secondary markets is expected to decrease. Roscongress predicts that in some regions it may decrease from 60-70% to 25-30%. However, Tumin clarified, this does not mean that ready-made housing will catch up with new buildings in terms of cost. Rather, the primary market will slow down amid rising construction costs and higher VAT, while the secondary market will look like a more attractive alternative.

The key factor for the market remains the policy of the Bank of Russia. If the regulator carefully eases conditions and takes pauses in February–March, the intensification of demand, according to the expert, will shift to the second half of the year. In this case, the secondary market will be in a trading mode and a smooth decline in prices until the summer, and then a gradual recovery may begin.

For buyers, Tumin notes, the first half of the year can be a "window of opportunity" when you can count on discounts and flexibility from sellers. In the second half of the year, with the return of affordable mortgages, the market, in his estimation, will begin to revive and the bargaining space will shrink.

The Roscongress report reported that prices for secondary housing in Russia may decrease by 10-15% by the end of 2026 due to the easing of the Central Bank's policy. New buildings, according to experts, at best will remain at the current level or will grow within the limits of inflation. The gap between the markets will narrow, but it will remain: a square meter in new buildings will still be on average 25-30% more expensive than in the secondary market.

Mikhail Golovnin, Director of the Institute of Economics (IE) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said on February 3 that regulating mortgage interest rates could make lending more affordable for Russian residents. The expert added that the policy of subsidizing rates in certain groups of regions of the Russian Federation can also be implemented at the federal level. He also noted that the possibilities of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are limited by regional preferential programs and do not allow them to be subsidized.

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