The expert predicted a trillion rubles for the budget after limiting cash deposits

Limiting cash and whitewashing businesses will bring 1 trillion rubles to the budget. This was stated to Izvestia on February 2 by Fyodor Sidorov, an economist, private investor, and founder of the School of Practical Investment.

"According to estimates by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, reducing the shadow sector can give the budget up to a trillion rubles in additional revenue annually from 2027. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimates the share of the shadow economy at 10-12% of GDP, with tens of trillions of turnover missing the treasury," the expert said.

Against the background of these assessments, regulators are recording an increase in tension in the monetary system. The Bank of Russia predicts an increase in the liquidity deficit in the banking sector to 2.5–3.5 trillion rubles in 2026 against 0.6–1.2 trillion by the end of 2025. In the third quarter of last year alone, cash turnover increased by 659 billion rubles, five times faster than a year earlier, and by the end of 2025, an increase in cash volume led to an outflow of about 1 trillion rubles of liquidity from the system.

The economist noted that the new measures to limit cash turnover can only partially slow down this process, since the bulk of transactions still pass through the cash desks of bank branches. At the same time, for most bona fide clients, the limit of 1 million rubles per month is sufficient, and if necessary, large amounts of transactions can be carried out directly at the offices of credit institutions.

Sidorov explained that in the segment of small and medium-sized businesses, where more than 40% of the working population is employed, the transition to cashless payments has already become a steady trend. The share of cash payments here decreased from 25.7% in 2021 to 12.2% in 2025. The key purpose of regulation is not to create barriers to legal activity, but to close "gray" schemes and equalize competitive conditions.

"Whitewashing will level the playing field for all market participants. There are risks, but they are related to how well the authorities will build the transition period and support businesses in adapting," the expert concluded.

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Earlier, on January 30, the Ministry of Finance proposed, as part of a plan to whitewash the economy, to set a limit of 1 million rubles for individuals to replenish accounts through ATMs and other technical devices. The explanatory note to the draft law states that the absence of a limit may facilitate the introduction into circulation of funds of questionable origin, possibly obtained by criminal means. Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, said he supports the initiative to introduce a limit on depositing cash into an ATM in the amount of 1 million rubles per month.

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