"Buyers are exhausted": car sales in 2025 decreased by 16%

Despite a slight revival of the automotive market in the middle of autumn, the overall sales results for the past year were noticeably lower than in 2024. At the same time, a number of market leaders, primarily Chinese brands, began to seriously lose their positions, giving way to domestic brands. Izvestia dealt with the trends and prospects of the Russian car market.

Downward movement

Last year, 1.326 million new cars were sold in Russia. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is 15.6% worse than the results of the year before last, experts say.

Almost a quarter (24.88%) of all new cars sold last year were Lada models. AVTOVAZ's products sold 329.9 thousand units. Haval won the title of the most popular foreign brand and the second place with a score of 173.3 thousand cars. This is followed by Chery and Geely (99.8 thousand and 94 thousand cars, respectively). The Belarusian Belgee closes the top five with a result of 68.1 thousand cars. Changan is on the sixth line at the end of last year (66.2 thousand cars), followed by Jetour with a result of 36.5 thousand cars. The top 10 most popular brands for the year also included domestic Solaris (34.5 thousand cars) and Tenet (33.5 thousand units), as well as Toyota (29.1 thousand cars supplied through alternative channels).

At the end of last year, sales decreased for half of the ten most popular car brands. Most noticeably, Chery (-36.4%), Geely (-36.9%) and Changan (-37.6%) "sank". Sales at AvtoVAZ also decreased by 24.4%, and at Haval by 9.1%. At the same time, Solaris (+132%), Belgee (+96.5%) and Toyota (+40.3%) showed good positive dynamics. The new Russian brand Tenet has also taken a good pace: sales of cars of this brand began only in August last year, and in five months more than 33.5 thousand Russians have already purchased cars.

Moreover, according to the results of the last month of last year, Tenet, with a result of 12.2 thousand cars, immediately took the third place in the rating, second only to Lada (31.5 thousand cars in December) and Haval (19.5 thousand cars). At the same time, for example, the Chery brand, which has been in the top five every month for the past three years, did not even get into the top ten most popular car brands by the end of December. In total, almost 136.5 thousand new cars were sold in Russia in the last month of last year, which is 7% better than the results of November 2025 and 10.6% more than in December 2024.

According to Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, last year the import of new passenger cars (up to three years) it decreased by 57% to 396 thousand units. At the same time, official distributors imported 224,000 cars, which is 70% less than in 2024, when they imported 743,000 cars.

Thanks to autumn

The rise of the car market, which began last fall, was facilitated by changes in the rules for calculating scrap collection, which came into force in December, its planned indexation from January, as well as the desire of buyers to purchase a car at various discounts and promotions, said Sergey Udalov, executive director of Autostat.

Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, agrees with him. In his opinion, the growth in car sales in October, November and December led to an overall market decline of only 16%.

"Without the autumn surge, the result would most likely have been much worse: the drop could have been more than 20%," he believes.

The decline in sales was facilitated by high car prices, expensive loans, as well as attractive deposit conditions, which prevented potential buyers from withdrawing funds from bank accounts until the fall, said Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.

— The customers are exhausted. If it weren't for the autumn "horror story" about a new increase in recycling, which drove people to car dealerships, the result for the year would have been even lower," said the editor—in-chief of Za Rulem.

The past year has been a period of deep adaptation and rationalization for the Russian car market, according to Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. The overall decrease in sales by 15.6% clearly marked the transition from the hyped demand of previous years to cold pragmatism, she believes.

— Against this background, the positions of localized brands such as Lada have strengthened. New players have shown explosive growth — the Belarusian Belgee and the Russian Solaris and Tenet," Irina Frank said.

At the same time, the expert notes, the traditional Chinese leaders, Chery and Geely, have shown a significant drop, which indicates a shift in consumer interest. As for the revival of the market in the autumn, Irina Frank believes that it is "technical" and was largely triggered by expectations of higher recycling fees and cheaper loans, rather than a fundamental recovery in demand.

Into standby mode

The main trend this year will be the further replacement of Chinese brands with Russian models based on them. According to Sergey Udalov, the import of cars from China will continue to decrease with the localization of production in our country. At the same time, new car loan rules will put some pressure on the market, he noted.

— First of all, we are talking about the mandatory official confirmation of the borrower's income when issuing a car loan, as well as the inability to obtain a loan to potential customers with a high level of creditworthiness. Because of this, the share of cars purchased on credit may fall, which will have a negative impact on the market," said Sergey Udalov.

Last December demonstrated the general market trends for the whole of 2026, Igor Morzharetto believes. With the expected appearance of Volga cars on the market, the effect of "communicating vessels", in which Chinese cars are replaced by Russian models, noticeable in the example of Chery/Tenet, is also possible with respect to Geely, on the basis of which future Volga cars are being created, he noted.

According to Irina Frank, this year will be a year of stabilization, not rapid growth. This will be especially noticeable in the first half of the year, when the market will have to get used to increased prices and new, tightened credit conditions, she believes.

"Government policy will steadily stimulate further localization of production, and the key growth points will be the secondary market, including the supply of used cars to order, as well as the segment of hybrid models," she is confident.

As for Chery and Geely, according to Irina Frank, it is not entirely correct to talk about their final disappearance from the Russian market.

— With regard to these brands, it is rather a question of a deep transformation and a change in the business model. Tenet is not just a replacement for Chery, but a new localized brand created on its production base and adapted to Russian realities. Similarly, the success of Belgee and the prospects for the revival of Volga point to a strategy for integrating Geely technologies into new domestic projects.

Autostat predicts that under the baseline scenario in 2026, the car market will remain at the current level (approximately 1.33 million cars). A positive scenario assumes a 10% increase (to about 1.46 million units), while a negative one implies a 10% decrease in sales, to the level of 1.2 million vehicles.

According to Alexey Kalitsev, chairman of the AEB Committee of Automakers, the decline in the market reflects the difficult situation in the industry, which is experiencing both external pressure in the form of sanctions restrictions and changes in internal regulation.

"It is obvious that the new VAT rates that have come into force, the increase in the recycling fee, and the Central Bank's key rate that remains high will continue to affect the automotive market, and in the next trimester we are likely to see negative sales dynamics," he said.

However, in the event of positive changes related to the geopolitical situation, a reduction in the key interest rate and government support, the automotive market could reach 1.4 million units in 2026, which is 2.5% more than in 2025, the AEB predicts.