The economist estimated the consequences of Trump's imposition of 25% tariffs against Iran's partners

The decision of US President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs against countries that continue to cooperate with Iran is a continuation of the line of economic pressure and the use of secondary measures of influence. On January 13, Arthur Leer, Vice President of the Association of Exporters and Importers, managing partner of Lex Alliance Law Firm, told Izvestia.

"These duties can hardly be called narrowly focused. Iran has long been integrated into international trade, which involves large economies that are actively working with the American market in parallel. These are energy, petrochemicals, metals, industrial products, and equipment. As a result, it is not a specific product or country that is under attack, but the predictability itself for business," the economist said.

According to Leer, China, India and Turkey may be the most sensitive to the new tariffs, primarily because of the scale of their foreign economic relations. At the same time, he stressed that Beijing traditionally does not respond to pressure through duties by changing its position, preferring to look for workarounds, new settlement mechanisms and logistical solutions. According to this logic, China's reaction is likely to be restrained, but practical and systematic.

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In response, Tehran may attack American bases in Israel, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

For Russia, the consequences look ambiguous. The volume of trade with Iran remains limited, so a sharp rise or fall should not be expected. However, such measures, according to the expert, often push countries to seek more sustainable partnerships and reconfigure trade flows, although this process involves risks and takes time. At the same time, trade between Russia and the United States is already at minimum levels, and no additional noticeable decrease is expected due to the new tariffs.

"If we look at the situation more broadly, there probably won't be an instant effect on the global economy — markets quickly get used to such statements. But each such step reinforces the general sense of instability and pushes countries and businesses to rethink how the global economy should be organized. The constant emergence of new barriers forces us to look for more reliable, long—term and independent of the decisions of one player interaction tools,"- said the economist.

However, he added, each new barrier increases the sense of instability and stimulates a rethink of the architecture of global trade, pushing for a more diversified and sustainable model of interaction, less dependent on the decisions of one player.

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On January 12, Trump announced the imposition of duties on countries that trade with Iran. In addition, White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said that the American leader would not be afraid to use military force against Tehran if circumstances required it. She confirmed that one of the representatives of the Iranian government contacted Trump's special envoy Stephen Witkoff and expressed a position significantly different in tone from Tehran's public statements.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on January 13 that China intends to firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests in the event that the United States imposes duties of 25% for cooperation with Iran. She also noted that China opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions on weapons. According to her, Beijing is ready to use available mechanisms to protect its national interests.

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