The decisive elections in the USA and Hungary will be held in 2026. What you need to know

In 2026, elections will be held in several countries around the world, which will have the greatest consequences. In the United States, a new House of Representatives will be elected and the Senate will be renewed by one third. In Hungary, the Tisa party, which opposes Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is likely to win. In Portugal, the leader of the far-right may become president. Which elections in the new year will affect the global political landscape is in the Izvestia article.

USA — Congressional and gubernatorial elections

• Midterm elections will be held in the United States on November 3, two years after the last presidential election. In 2026, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested, 35 senators out of 100 will be determined, and the governors of 36 states will be elected. Traditionally, midterm elections are a kind of vote of confidence in the incumbent president, but in the vast majority of cases they lead to the defeat of the party supported in the White House.

• On average, the president's party loses 24 seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. Currently, the Republican Party of Donald Trump holds 220 mandates against 213 for the Democratic Party (two more seats belonging to the Democrats are now vacant). If the statistics turn out to be correct, then the Republicans will face their worst defeat since 2008, when they had only 178 representatives. Opinion polls show that voters' sympathies have indeed shifted to the Democrats, but their advantage is only about 4%.

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• Electoral district redistricting, which took place in individual states throughout 2025 and will continue after the New Year, may make changes before the elections. The trend was set by Texas, where new electoral district maps were adopted, giving an advantage to Republicans. Democratic California followed his example. Then the cards were changed by Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah, and proceedings are continuing in six more states. At the moment, Republicans have been able to gain eight new loyal districts for themselves, the Democrats have only one, and nine more have high competition for congressional seats.

• The Senate elections should be held more calmly for Republicans. All preliminary analyses show that they will be able to count on maintaining a majority in the upper house of Congress and secure at least 50-52 senators out of 100. In three or four other states, there is no clear contender for a Senate seat, and a serious fight is expected with Democrats, who are still projected to win only 45 to 47 seats. If both parties gain 50 people each, the leadership will remain with the Republican Party, since Vice President Jay Dee Vance belongs to it.

• Last but not least, the American political landscape may be affected by gubernatorial elections, which also determine whether the current president still has the same support as after his election. Preliminary calculations show that Democrats will be re-elected in 15 of the 18 states (Kansas, Michigan and Wisconsin remain in question), while Republicans will remain in charge of 18 states.

Hungary — Parliamentary elections

• Elections to the unicameral parliament will be held in Hungary on April 12. It will depend on them whether Viktor Orban retains the post of prime minister or whether his rule, which has lasted since 2010, will come to an end. After four successful election cycles, his Fidesz party is in danger of being defeated and losing its absolute majority.

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Fidesz's main rival will be the Respect and Freedom Party, known as Tisa. She received a sharp surge in popularity after Orban's former colleague Peter Magyar joined her in 2024. He announced his goal to oust the current prime minister and quickly became the leader of the opposition, around whom other political forces began to unite.

• Tisa has already achieved its first successes and gained almost 30% in the elections to the European Parliament and the Budapest City Council, which no party except Fidesz has been able to do since 2006. In 2025, some polls showed that Tisa was already ahead of Fidesz, while others recorded a minimal gap between them in favor of the ruling party. Orban's party no longer received a stable absolute majority, as in 2022.

• At the same time, Orban has already begun preparations for the election campaign, explaining to his compatriots that decisions on the most important issues are at stake: a nationally oriented policy, migration and energy prices and, as a result, utilities.

Israel — Parliamentary elections

• Parliamentary elections will be held in Israel on October 27. This will be an important moment for a country that, since the last elections in 2022, has experienced judicial reform, an attack by the radical Hamas group, a military operation in the Gaza Strip, an exchange of blows with Iran, the release of hostages and the signing of a peace agreement with the same Hamas. All this time, the country has been led by a hawkish coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party, which holds the most seats in the Knesset.

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• Netanyahu cannot boast of a high personal rating among voters, protests against him are becoming a regular event in Israel. However, this does not affect the election forecasts of Likud and the right-wing parties supporting it. The opposition remains fragmented, but Naftali Bennett, Netanyahu's former ally and prime minister in 2021-2022, is trying to unite it. His party "Bennett-2026" consistently ranks second in opinion polls, but has not yet gained enough allies.

Portugal — Presidential election

• Presidential elections will be held in Portugal on January 18. It is believed that the holder of this post performs only representative functions, although he has fairly broad powers, including dissolving parliament and vetoing laws. In 2026, special attention will be focused on these elections, as the leader of the far-right Chega party, Andre Ventura, may be the winner.

• In 2025, "Chega" has already become the main sensation of the parliamentary elections. Having taken the third place in terms of the number of votes received, she became the second in the number of seats in parliament, which was a breakthrough for the entire European far-right bloc. Now Ventura, as the leader of the opposition, is trying to take the highest post in the country. Polls show that he is on par with more moderate candidates such as Socialist António José Seguro, Social Democrat Luis Marques Mendes and independent Admiral Henrique Gouveia y Melo.

Armenia — Parliamentary elections

• Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7. This will be the third election for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has been in office for seven years. Their results will show how much the country approves of his chosen course of abandoning claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and focusing on Europe. Recent polls show that Pashinyan's personal rating fluctuates at the levels of politicians opposed to him, but at the same time the peace agenda he promotes finds support.

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• It is expected that the Armenian Diaspora living abroad, primarily in Russia, will have a great impact on the election results and will be able to undermine the position of Pashinyan's Social Contract party. The parliamentary elections should also be followed by a referendum on the adoption of a new constitution, which should consolidate the results of the military conflict with Azerbaijan, and it is this circumstance that is being used by the current Armenian authorities in their election campaign.

Serbia — Parliamentary elections

• Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Serbia before December 31, 2027, but by the end of 2025, President Aleksandar Vucic allowed parliamentary elections to be held ahead of schedule in May or December 2026. The final date has not yet been determined, but it remains likely that Serbia will elect a new parliament in the new year.

• Vucic, for whom 2027 will be the last year at the head of the country, and his coalition "Serbia must not stop" are now confidently leading in the opinion polls. However, tension remains in the country after a series of street protests, which have become the largest in recent years. They have already led to the resignation of Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, but they have not shaken Vucic's position. If the elections are held ahead of schedule, it means that the Serbian president is confident of the victory of his political associates.