"In the coming decades, the power of solar cycles will increase"
Sergey Yazev, Professor, director of the Astronomical Observatory of Irkutsk State University, senior researcher at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia in an exclusive interview how many solar flares are expected in the coming year and how strong they will be. He also gave space weather forecasts, explained what measures would improve their accuracy, and drew attention to the unusual asymmetry of solar activity. In addition, the scientist explained what steps are needed to restore Russia's sovereignty in the field of solar observations.
"Accurate forecasts of "sunny weather" are still far away"
— How well do we know the Sun? What mysteries have yet to be solved?
— Paradoxically, we understand well what our star is, how it works. The standard model of the Sun, which was developed decades ago, looks consistent. However, the devil is in the details. They still have a long, long time to figure out.
So, it doesn't matter what the situation is with forecasting solar phenomena. Take, for example, forecasts of the number of spots at the maximum of the 11-year cycle of solar activity — the range of possible options in this area is monstrous.
Another example is solar flares. We generally understand the conditions under which they occur. But we cannot predict a specific event. For example, it happens that a huge, complex group of spots should produce powerful flashes, but they do not occur. And it's not clear why. In other words, we understand the general principles, but accurate forecasts of "sunny weather" are still far away.
— It was reported that the peak of solar activity has been passed. Is that true?
— The activity of the Sun has indeed become less. If we take the main parameter — the spots on its surface, then their number has decreased. For example, compared to the peak in August 2024, their number has halved, with 57 outbreaks of the highest class the year before last, and only 16 last year.
In the near future, the general background of solar activity will decrease. By 2030, we are likely to reach another low. However, short-term but very powerful local bursts of solar activity are possible against the background of the recession. I would venture to assume that there will be about ten Class X outbreaks next year.
"There are many spots and flares on one hemisphere of the Sun, and few on the other"
— What kind of events pose a danger to people?
— In most cases, these threats are exaggerated. Their influence on people has not been proven, no matter what the media writes about it. Interesting facts include a strange asymmetry. It turns out that in recent months there have been a lot of spots and flares on one of the hemispheres of the Sun, and few on the other. When the "quiet" hemisphere is facing the Earth, there is a calm in space weather, and vice versa.
It is also worth mentioning another phenomenon — coronal holes. These are areas in the Sun's atmosphere that look like dark areas in the short-wavelength range. The magnetic lines of force from them extend far into interplanetary space. Solar wind flows from these areas at a speed of 700-800 km/sec — twice as fast as usual. Interacting with the Earth's magnetosphere, they also provoke magnetic storms.
As a rule, these are weak events (class G1–G2). Nevertheless, during the period of low solar activity, when there are few spots, this source of geomagnetic disturbances plays a significant role. For example, there were many coronal holes last year, so there were more weak magnetic storms than in 2024. But you shouldn't be afraid of them: only rare extreme events create real problems for energy, navigation and communication systems.
— What discoveries related to the Sun have you made recently?
— Now new opportunities are provided by missions that are directed directly to the Sun. In particular, the Parker Solar Probe is a device launched by NASA in 2018. Currently, he has repeatedly approached the surface of the star at a distance of 6 million km. This probe, for example, confirmed the existence of "solar tadpoles," which had previously only been predicted. These are plasma structures that arise from areas with increased magnetic activity. They share a peculiar shape with frog larvae.
This device was also the first to study the Alfven surface, the boundary inside the star's atmosphere where its magnetic field stops holding the solar wind. It turned out that this surface is not smooth, but very dynamic, with a complex shape.
The Parker Solar Probe device
Magnetic fields determine everything in the Sun. In its atmosphere (chromosphere) there is a whole "carpet" of various looped magnetic structures — fibrils, filaments, floccules, etc. The physics of these phenomena and processes is more complex than that of atmospheric fronts on Earth. However, scientists are gradually accumulating knowledge about them, which will eventually improve space weather forecasts.
— Are there any achievements in this area?
— The situation here is not encouraging. Modern models work inaccurately. One of the problems is the lack of data. In particular, telescopes that observe the Sun from Earth only see plasma emissions moving in our direction at the very beginning. Based on such data, it is difficult to determine the exact direction and velocity of the plasma cloud. Therefore, we need devices that can monitor the space between the Earth and our star from the side.
Paradoxically, significant resources are being spent on exploring deep space and galaxies, while the tasks of exploring one's own star remain unresolved.
"In matters of solar observations, we have actually lost sovereignty"
— How do you rate Russian solar research programs?
— Currently, our country does not have a single device to obtain images of the Sun in the X-ray and ultraviolet ranges, so we are forced to use foreign information, which is wrong and dangerous. For example, we used to take data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite, but in 2024 the servers that received information from it were damaged and the data became unavailable. And then this data was no longer displayed on the site, despite the fact that the servers were set up.
Let me remind you that during the Soviet Union, we had a Sun Service. It included a network of ground stations across the country. Now only the observatory near Kislovodsk remains. Thus, in matters of observing the Sun, we have actually lost sovereignty.
Yes, the new national space project includes the Space Science program. Among other things, in order to study the Sun, it provides for the launch of Arka, Resonance, Ionosonde and Nucleon spacecraft. But only the first of them will explore the star, and the rest are aimed at analyzing its impact on near-Earth space. In addition, the Arka will probably be launched only after 1930, that is, not soon.
— If possible, what research program would you suggest?
— First of all, I would restore the Service of the Sun. This is much cheaper than space projects, and the efficiency may be higher. Secondly, it would accelerate the creation and launch of the mentioned domestic devices, which would use instruments for studying the star at short wavelengths — gamma, X-ray and ultraviolet radiation.
Thirdly, as mentioned above, I would send space probes to observe the Sun and near-solar space from the side, and it would also be nice to see it from behind. In addition, the project of the Intergeliosonde, a complex for studying the Sun from a close distance, would be revived.
I must say that today even nanosatellites could partially cover some of the urgent needs for studying the Sun, but with moderate (not to say minimal) costs. Without our own research, we are doomed to lag behind in understanding space weather. And ultimately, the security of the country also depends on this.
"An interstellar comet is a time capsule"
— Are there long cycles of solar activity?
— Such hypotheses are being discussed. In particular, we see that 11-year cycles are more or less active. For example, there was a strong cycle in the middle of the 20th century, and the last two were quite weak.
This suggests that the "height" of 11-year cycles is changing under the influence of longer-period cycles. For example, they talk about the Gleisberg cycle (70-100 years) or even about the de Vries cycle (2 thousand years). But so far there are few statistics, and it is difficult to say for sure about the existence of such cycles.
Nevertheless, if this is true, then there is reason to believe that we are now near the minimum of the centennial cycle and in the coming decades the power of solar cycles will increase again.
— Is global warming related to solar activity?
— On the scale of decades, the relationship between solar activity and climate is not visible. However, over long periods of time, such as centuries and millennia, this influence is more noticeable.
The problem is that scientists have been conducting regular instrumental observations of the Sun only since the middle of the 19th century. This is too short a series for statistics, and older cycles are reconstructed from indirect data, such as radioactive isotopes in glaciers or tree rings. Such methods have a large margin of error, so the question is still open.
— What are interstellar objects like Comet 3i/atlas interesting for heliophysics?
— An interstellar comet is a time capsule. Its substance formed in the protoplanetary disk of a star insanely far from us. Perhaps the comet is 1.5–2 times older than the Solar system. Then it flew for billions of years in interstellar space, being bombarded by cosmic rays.
At the same time, in 3I/ATLAS we see the same compounds that are present in terrestrial matter, but the ratio of elements is somewhat different. By studying such objects, we can better understand the evolution of our own planetary system.
"In the next 5-10 years, we will see steps to turn fantastic projects into reality"
— How realistic are global solar energy projects?
— Previously, these ideas rested on the level of technology and exorbitant cost. The situation is changing today. For example, the cost of launching cargo into orbit has decreased, lightweight and efficient solar panels (for example, film panels) have appeared that can be deployed over huge areas in space, which is why such projects have become justified.
There are already, for example, startups that are implementing projects to create solar-mirror power plants in orbit. The deployment of data centers in space is also promising. They need a lot of energy and efficient heat dissipation. In space, both are easier to solve.
— Which of these projects are suitable for our country?
— As for the orbital mirrors, the first such experiment ("Banner-2") was conducted by Russia. It was in 1993, when a 20-meter mirrored "umbrella" was deployed from the Mir station. Reflected from it, a multi-kilometer solar "bunny" ran across Europe at night. The idea was to illuminate the cities in the north during the polar night in this way.
Now this project is quite feasible. The question is about economic feasibility. I think in the next 5-10 years we will see steps to turn fantastic projects into reality.
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