The expert spoke about the decline in geomagnetic activity

Sergey Bogachev, head of the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy at the IKI RAS, told Izvestia that geomagnetic activity is still elevated, but it is already declining after the peak of 2024.

The expert explained that we are in the phase of gradual decline of the 11-year solar cycle, but it is still far from the minimum.

— There are well-established cyclical total activities, which consist of 11-year lists, between which there is a minimum. Based on all the data, we are currently in a phase of decline from the last peak, which was last year, to a minimum, which will be around 2030. I won't say that we are right close to the minimum, but we are moving in this direction," the expert said.

At the same time, coronal holes remain an additional factor — structures that emit high-speed solar wind streams that can form geomagnetic disturbances even without powerful flares. Their influence can enhance the frequency and strength of storms.

In 2025, there were the most storms in the last decade, including events of levels G3–G4 and almost G5. However, in 2026, activity will be weaker than in the current year, as solar activity is moving towards the minimum of the cycle.

Forecasts for 2026 remain uncertain: the official space weather centers have not yet given accurate estimates of the number and intensity of events. Scientists admit the possibility of individual "abnormal" outbreaks and moderate or severe storms of the G2–G3 level, but emphasize that further observational data will be key to clarifying the scenario.

For more information, see the Izvestia article.

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