What prevents America from becoming great again? Analysis
There has been a split in the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, which led to Donald Trump's presidential election victory. While Republicans are arguing among themselves and even trying to resist Trump, a new movement is emerging on the basis of MAGA, and the implementation of the ideas on which the creation of this trend was based has stalled. What is the reason for the disagreement and how the split in MAGA prevented the slogan from being implemented — in the Izvestia article.
Reasons for disagreement
• One of the reasons for the split within the movement is the conflict between representatives of the party's "old guard" and young Republicans attracted during Trump's last election campaign, with its emphasis on social networks and cryptocurrencies. While the party heavyweights advocate the leading role of the United States in international politics, the MAGA youth wing adheres to isolationist views and insists on bringing domestic politics to the fore.
• A strong trigger for MAGA was the publication of materials on the Jeffrey Epstein case (we discussed the consequences of disclosing the Epstein case files here). Trump reacted negatively to the demands of some conservatives to publish the materials, and he called his ardent supporter and MAGA activist Senator Marjorie Taylor Green a traitor for this. This reaction led to a small part of the right turning away from Trump, and some even posted photos of burning MAGA caps on social media.
• The majority of Republicans supported the disclosure of files on the Epstein case, and Trump supported this initiative, but the publication did not extinguish the conflict and only raised new questions for the president. According to the US Department of Justice, the photos were edited to protect the victims, but individual images were completely blurred out. The press drew attention to the fact that the first batch of published materials was dominated by photographs featuring former US President Bill Clinton, and footage of Trump was withdrawn. This has raised suspicions, including within the Conservative Party, that the Justice Ministry is covering up for the president.
• Experts doubt that there is evidence of Trump's illegal activities in the Epstein case, in which case former US President Joe Biden, who actively prosecuted his rival in the election race, could use such a trump card. Given that Epstein's files also contain photographs of prominent representatives of the Democratic Party, Epstein's case is equally toxic for both Republicans and Democrats.
• Most MAGA representatives support arms supplies to Ukraine and Israel. However, not all supporters agree with the policy towards Venezuela: Senator Rand Paul demanded that the Ministry of War testify under oath about the murder of alleged drug smugglers, and Congress intends to block military action against the Latin American country. Also, Republicans in the Senate opposed Trump's idea of compensation payments for Americans from the amounts received from the imposition of duties: the senators considered that the funds should be used to reduce the budget deficit.
• Disputes over the regulation of artificial intelligence have put Trump at odds with his allies among the governors of the states. Trump's support for AI developers, the repeal of his predecessor's regulations, and the intention to deregulate the field at the state level are not understood by Republicans, who see the spread of neural networks as a risk of job losses, a threat to the psyche of teenagers, and a sharp increase in utility costs due to a shortage of electricity, which is actively consumed by AI technologies.
• MAGA's media personalities also provoke fierce disputes within the movement. Podcaster Candice Owens was accused of attacking the movement when she claimed that Israel and the organization Turning Point USA, founded by MAGA ideologue Charlie Kirk, were involved in his murder. Owens is also known for the theory that French President Emmanuel Macron's wife was originally a man.
• Conservatives also accused host Tucker Carlson of being too soft in an interview with a Nazi, which could turn members of minorities away from the movement. MAGA activists themselves are talking about the existence of a split — podcaster Mike Chernovich believes that the "hawks"-congressmen from the Republican Party want to cancel the midterm elections and deprive the Republicans of a majority in Congress.
Consequences of the split
• Republicans in the states seem to be sabotaging Trump's decisions. The Indiana State Senate rejected the redistricting proposed by Trump. The bill could provide Republicans with an additional seat in the House of Representatives. Moreover, votes against this project prevailed among Republicans. At the same time, the failure of voting for a new electoral map in Indiana cannot be called decisive, since a revision of borders is expected in nine more states.
• Amid growing disagreements, Republicans are leaving Congress. On December 19, a "hawk" congresswoman from the Republican Party, Elise Stefanik, dropped out of the election race for governor of New York. She also stated that she would not be re-elected to the House of Representatives, where she had been since 2014. After her appointment as the permanent representative of the United States to the United Nations in January 2025, Trump withdrew her candidacy in order to preserve the majority of Republicans in Congress. He also disapproved of Stefanik's election campaign in New York, supporting her Republican rival Bruce Blakeman.
• Earlier, Marjorie Taylor Green, a member of the House of Representatives who criticized Trump, withdrew from the election race, despite her popularity in her own district. She will resign from the Chamber in January. Green suggested that if the Republicans lose the midterm elections, the president will be impeached. After the expiration of their terms of office, Republicans Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis will also leave the US Congress.
• Earlier, after disagreements with Trump, entrepreneur and the richest man on the planet, Elon Musk, withdrew from active participation in the movement, whose support ensured the current US president's election victory. The press reports that Musk has resumed financing the Republican election campaign, but it is not yet known which of them he is betting on.
• Trump's rating is falling amid economic problems at home. Against this background, he tries to communicate with voters more often, and also puts forward populist initiatives, for example, distributing compensation payments to Americans from the proceeds from the imposition of duties could be considered by Congress as an attempt to buy the electorate. The fact that this decision was blocked in Congress with significant Republican participation rather confirms the version about plans to impeach Trump and replace him with a new leader.
The contenders to replace Trump
• The race for the presidency is already underway. Trump's most likely successor is U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance, although he has not officially announced his intention to run in 2028. He is supported by journalist Tucker Carlson, whose popularity among conservatives has been growing lately, and Erica, the widow of murdered activist Charlie Kirk, who said at the Turning Point USA forum that Vance should become the 48th president of the United States. A survey of forum participants showed that 84.2% of conservatives would vote for Vance, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in second place with 4.8% of the vote, and Florida Governor Ron Desantis in third place with 2.9%.
• At the same time, some Republicans consider Vance's candidacy controversial: the vice president has shown himself to be a tough and assertive leader, unlike Trump, who is always ready to make a deal. Republican Senator Rand Paul also opposes Vance, who fears that if elected, he will continue to pursue an isolationist policy, impose import duties and impose restrictions on international trade.
• Marco Rubio may become another possible successor to Trump. He can rather be attributed to the "hawks" — he advocates the demonstration of US military power to the whole world. It was Rubio, along with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who made the decision to strike ships in Venezuela, he also insisted on increasing pressure on Russia to resolve the Ukrainian conflict and softened his position, probably only under the influence of Trump.
• Republican Governor of Florida Ron Desantis does not rule out his participation in the election race. Polls show that Desantis, who competed with Trump during the last presidential campaign, will again find it difficult to overcome the primaries, and his support in the state and at the party level remains low. Nevertheless, Desantis has retained the support of conservative voters and may gain additional points by opposing Trump, who limits the independence of states in matters of immigration policy and AI regulation.
Why was there a split in MAGA
There was no unity within the Republican Party from the beginning, and Trump has learned to use this for his own purposes. Realizing that many colleagues in the party may vote against his initiatives, Trump is doing everything to keep Republican congressmen busy with internal strife and not interfere with his own policy.
• According to experts, MAGA is currently what Trump says. Former MAGA members who disagree with the US president's policies are increasingly proclaiming the isolationist slogan "America first." The press sees this as a new AFAO (America First America Only) movement, which calls on Republicans to focus on the country's internal affairs. At the same time, representatives of the new movement consider themselves the guardians of the original ideas of MAGA.
When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:
- the American writer Dmitry Drobnitsky;
- the Americanist Malek Dudakov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
