Oil boarding: the United States seized a Venezuelan tanker

The conflict between Washington and Caracas is reaching a new level. Donald Trump announced the seizure of a "very large" tanker off the coast of Venezuela. The vessel could carry about 1.8 million barrels of oil — it will remain with the United States. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry described the incident unequivocally as "a brazen robbery and an act of international piracy." Izvestia found out how the incident could affect the oil market, what position China, the main buyer of Venezuelan raw materials, would take, and why what is happening could benefit the Russian Federation.

The largest of the captured

As the American President Donald Trump admitted, from the point of view of news, he had an "interesting day" on December 10. "We just captured a tanker off the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large, the largest ever captured. Other things are happening, so you'll see it later and talk about it later with other people," he told reporters.

The purpose of the operation is not called, but the head of the White House assured that it happened "for a very good reason."

Presumably, we are talking about the ship Skipper — it was sailing with Venezuelan oil to Cuba. The oil was allegedly supplied by the Venezuelan oil and gas state company PDVSA. She has a US permit to cooperate with American partners, including Chevron Corp.

Back in 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the tanker for its alleged involvement in oil smuggling. The income allegedly went to finance terrorist organizations, including those based in Lebanon and Syria.

The operation to capture the tanker involved the FBI, Coast Guard, Marines, special forces and two helicopters. The crew did not resist, there were no casualties.

The incident was a new spike in tensions between the United States and Venezuela, which escalated this fall. Trump has declared war on Latin American drug cartels, and the US Navy has begun patrolling the Caribbean Sea to curb drug trafficking.

However, in Caracas itself, they look at it differently. "Back during the 2024 election campaign (Trump. — Izvestia) He openly stated that his goal has always been to seize Venezuelan oil without any compensation, and made it clear that the policy of aggression against our country is part of a deliberate plan to appropriate our energy resources," the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said.

They added: the incident with the ship is nothing more than a "blatant robbery" and an "act of international piracy."

Economic challenges

Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. According to data for 2018, their volume was estimated at 302.3 billion barrels, which is 17% of global reserves. The main buyer is China, which is also investing in the development of Venezuelan deposits. The question arises: will Beijing stand up for Caracas?

It is unlikely that China will escalate the situation, Andrei Smirnov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, told Izvestia.

Deck consequences: what might an armed conflict between the United States and Venezuela look like?

The United States has concentrated an aircraft carrier armada off the coast of the Latin American country

— The country's policy is pragmatic enough to turn to a fairly diversified list of suppliers with whom China already has active contracts. Beijing will probably limit itself to a political and diplomatic reaction," he believes.

Against the background of the incident, oil prices went up slightly. However, a sharp rise in prices should not be expected, Smirnov points out.

— Venezuela's oil has already been under sanctions, and the general tension has been increasing over the past months. That is, the step was not unexpected and is not critical. Moreover, Venezuela's supply volume, even with shadow exports, can be quickly offset by other suppliers. Given the current rhetoric of OPEC+ and the general increase in production, the markets will not take this incident seriously, the expert is sure.

Another thing is that it may become more expensive to transport oil in general. Traditionally, after such precedents, insurance companies raise insurance premiums. In addition, the lengthening of routes when bypassing the water area will lead to an additional increase in the cost of transportation, Smirnov points out.

— Even independent companies that have worked with sanctioned goods will more often avoid Venezuelan cargo. At the same time, a reduction in oil supplies from Venezuela to China may lead to an increase in demand for Russian energy resources. It is possible that discounts on exports to China will decrease for domestic suppliers, the Izvestia interlocutor suggests.

Prospects for conflict

Trump seeks to make the United States a country that controls the supply of global energy resources, says Natalia Yeremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University. According to her, the Americans seek to control any supplies in the region.

— The incident can hardly be regarded as a stage for a large-scale invasion of Venezuela. This is rather a kind of "tug of war" with a country that Washington considers a "backyard" along with other Latin American states. In Washington, they are literally required to obey directly. And Trump himself imagines himself to be in charge of everything and everywhere," she said.

At the same time, political analyst Andrei Kortunov, in a conversation with Izvestia, admits the risk of an expansion of the conflict. Moreover, the first strikes, apparently, did not produce the results that the American administration had hoped for.

— The goals of the United States clearly go far beyond the fight against drug trafficking. In fact, we are talking about an attempt to achieve political change in the country. Washington seems to assume that the power of Nicolas Maduro rests on a very fragile foundation, and under certain pressure this balance can be disrupted. Therefore, the likelihood of further escalation remains, although it certainly has limits," the expert notes.

The expert noted that it is unlikely that it will come to a ground operation. The conflict may follow the scenario of America's confrontation with the countries of the Middle East — Iran, Yemen, Syria, where the United States also launched missile and bombing attacks.

If we talk about the prospects of overthrowing the Maduro government, then Trump will face obstacles — he still has support inside the country.

— We can also recall the crisis of the past years, when the "government in exile" was formed and many considered the fall of the regime inevitable. But Maduro's power held on despite pressure, sanctions, and numerous economic and social problems, Kortunov recalls.

In addition, there remains the factor of Russia and China, the political scientist continues. Protecting its investments in Venezuela remains a key priority for China. Russia is also unlikely to remain on the sidelines — we can expect an expansion of military-technical cooperation between Moscow and Caracas. These factors will not be decisive, but they are significant enough for the United States and its allies to completely isolate Venezuela.