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- Deck consequences: what might an armed conflict between the United States and Venezuela look like?
Deck consequences: what might an armed conflict between the United States and Venezuela look like?
US President Donald Trump has promised a land operation "very soon" to curb the activities of Venezuelan drug traffickers. This significantly increases the likelihood of the outbreak of hostilities in this area of South America. The United States has concentrated a fairly powerful group of ships and military equipment in the Caribbean Sea near the coast of Venezuela. About what is included in its composition and how these weapons can be used in the event of a US attack on Venezuela, see the Izvestia article.
The American Armada
There are impressive forces gathered in the American group right now. Several American bases in the Caribbean are ready: the main one is Puerto Rico, auxiliary ones are Guantanamo Bay in Cuba and bases in El Salvador and Honduras. The main backbone of the group is the Aircraft Carrier Strike Group (AUG), led by the nuclear aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford. In addition to the aircraft carrier, the AUG includes three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
The aircraft carrier has nine squadrons of planes and helicopters on board, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and jamming. The wing consists of four strike squadrons with F/A-18E Super Hornet multipurpose carrier—based fighters, one squadron of transport aircraft, one E-2D Hawkeye long—range radar detection and control aircraft, and one EA-18G air defense jamming and suppression aircraft. There are also two squadrons of landing and rescue helicopters.
In addition, 10 fifth-generation F-35B Lightning-II multirole fighters are stationed in advance at the Puerto Rico air base, although only carrier-based aircraft have more sides than the number of fighters of the Venezuelan Air Force. And from the mainland of the United States, strategic aircraft such as supersonic B—1B bombers and B-52H heavy bombers may also take part in the proposed operation.
For a possible amphibious operation, the Iwo Jima, San Antonio and Fort Lauderdale universal amphibious assault ships are also located here. They have their own aviation — AV-8B shortened and vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, MV-22B Osprey tiltrotor planes, and attack and transport helicopters. Plus a set of landing gear and, of course, the Marines.
All this is supported by reconnaissance drones from El Salvador and Honduras, as well as the US transport aircraft, which is ready to transfer ammunition and reserves. We also do not forget about the special operations forces with a special aircraft, the AC—130J flying battery, which specializes in fighting partisans.
MV-22B Osprey
That's it? No. There are at least two unidentified nuclear submarines and four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers that are not part of the aircraft carrier's retinue. In total, they have about 240 Tomahawk-class cruise missiles in one salvo. This is in addition to what strategic aviation will bring or strike aircraft will be launched. As a result, a very impressive armada.
Venezuelan forces
Venezuela, of course, has armed forces. The Air Force has 23 modern Su-30MKV fighters and 12 light F-16A fighters. There is an air defense system — the S-300V air defense system, 12 Buk-M2 launchers, 18 S-125 Pechora-2M air defense systems, 12 Tor-M1 air defense systems and a large number of portable air defense systems. The total number of armed forces is more than 120 thousand people. Several brigades with T-72B1V, BMP-3, BTR-80 tanks and more. There is a naval force with two obsolete submarines, patrol ships and frigates built in the 1980s.
The Venezuelan leadership declares 82% support of the population for the intention to fight any aggression from outside. National brigades are being formed and exercises are being conducted to destroy the Gringo landing force on the seashore.
In principle, by South American standards, Venezuela has a fairly strong army and demonstrates the readiness of the militia. It is absolutely certain that a country can repel the aggression of any of its neighbors, but is it capable of resisting the modern aerospace attack of the largest industrial power?
Military scenario
In the event that the United States decides to conduct an operation against Venezuela, amphibious landings and combat operations by Marines may not occur. First, there will be suppression of air defense systems, as well as the air in general in the area of possible hostilities by means of jamming. This will be followed by a massive remote strike with cruise and anti-radar missiles, guided bombs and drones.
Special operations forces can start working at the same time. They will engage in targeted operations to decapitate the control systems of the armed forces and, possibly, to eliminate the military and political leadership of the country.
Until the air defenses and airfields are destroyed, apart from the F-35, no other aircraft will even enter the country's airspace. And after the destruction of the air defense system, the hunt for ground-based military equipment will begin.
If during the first stage the special operations forces are able to take control of the nodal points — "mail and telegraph", then everything will depend on whether the former leadership of the country remains at the helm or not. After the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States is very reluctant to embark on a full-fledged ground operation with the occupation of cities and territories. And the trained group simply does not have the strength for this today. So, perhaps, everything will be limited to just one stage without a "big war".
If the landing of occupation troops is required, then if the current military and political forces retain power in Venezuela, the situation may escalate into a guerrilla war that can be waged in South America for years. It is highly unlikely that Trump needs such a turnaround.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
