"This will be another Vietnamese quagmire and disaster"

Tension between the United States and Venezuela is growing. At least 75 people have become victims of American attacks on ships in the Caribbean to combat drug trafficking, and now Washington is preparing to launch a new operation called the Southern Spear. According to the American side, Caracas is directly responsible for the flow of drugs into the United States.

The day before, Donald Trump said that further steps towards Venezuela had already been taken, but did not disclose any details. According to The Washington Post, the White House is discussing the possibility of conducting an operation in this country. Experts are considering a variety of versions, from targeted strikes to attempts to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Meanwhile, from November 16 to November 21, the United States and Trinidad and Tobago are conducting joint exercises in the region, and the country is located 15 km from the coast of Venezuela. Moreover, the U.S. aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford will arrive there within a few days. Maduro has already called this an irresponsible step, calling on the American people and Trump to end the "endless wars." In Russia, the situation is being watched with concern. "We hope that no actions will be taken that could lead to destabilization of the situation in the Caribbean and around Venezuela. And that everything will be in accordance with international law," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

"Dangerous illusions can cost both Latin America and the USA dearly"

The escalation of military pressure on Venezuela means a violation of two repeatedly voiced principles of the Trump administration's foreign policy, Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, tells Izvestia. First, the US president has repeatedly said that, unlike many of his predecessors, he does not start new wars, but only ends old conflicts. Secondly, he assured Americans and the whole world that under him the United States would definitely not seek to change political regimes and engage in the "export of democracy."

"The rejection of these two principles must have convincing explanations. One possible reason is the perception in Washington that Nicolas Maduro's power is hanging by a thread and even rhetorical threats from the White House will lead to its rapid decline.

Another explanation is the hope that, as in the case of Iran in June this year, the United States will be able to achieve its goals through precise "surgical" strikes on Venezuela, without risking a serious escalation, which involves numerous costs.

In both cases, we are dealing with dangerous illusions that can cost Latin America and the United States dearly."

"As in the case of Iran, there will be no full-scale war between the United States and Venezuela."

In foreign policy relations, Donald Trump is playing the role of a diplomatic mediator, and now he is trying to become a political administrator, including with regard to regimes like Venezuela that do not meet the American democratic model of government, emphasizes Egor Toropov, an American analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

"Trump does not shy away from power scenarios in geopolitical transactions. But at the same time, unlike George W. Bush two decades earlier, he considers only the precise and strictly limited in time and space the voice of American weapons acceptable. As in the case of Iran, there will be no full-scale war between the United States and Venezuela. In the most heated scenario, we can expect the geography of periodic extrajudicial killings of individual groups to expand from international maritime space to the territory of Venezuela."

"The real motive is an attempt to find any excuse to promote regime change in Venezuela"

Polls show that Americans do not want a war with Venezuela, like many of Trump's electorate, draws the attention of Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor-in-chief of Covert Action magazine and an American political scientist.

"If a war breaks out, it will become another Vietnamese quagmire and disaster, as Venezuelans will rally in support of their sovereignty. They don't want the United States to impose a government on them that will sell the country's economy to foreigners. Trump's actions are in no way appropriate or legitimate. His administration shoots down ships and kills people, believing that they are engaged in drug trafficking. However, no evidence or court proceedings have been presented that could establish the true guilt of the victims.

In addition, Venezuela has never been a center of drug trafficking — Mexico and Colombia play a more important role in it, and the United States, represented by the CIA, has a long history of supporting drug traffickers associated with governments serving the country's geopolitical interests. The real motive is an attempt to find any excuse to promote regime change in Venezuela, which is ruled by a socialist government that has regained control of its oil after American corporations and is trying to achieve greater autonomy from the United States."