The economist predicted a reduction in the Central Bank's key rate to 16% in December.

At the December meeting, the regulator may consider two possible solutions: lowering the rate to 16% or keeping it at the current level of 16.5%. The first option will support business and business activity, the second will ensure the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation. Valery Tumin, a member of the Expert Council on the Development of the Digital Economy under the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, told Izvestia on December 10.

"The current level of the key rate (16.5%) is the result of four consecutive cuts that began in June from a historic high of 21%. The main reason for monetary policy easing is a steady slowdown in inflation," the economist said.

According to Rosstat, annual inflation slowed from 7.71% in October to about 6.9% by the end of November, and since the beginning of the year it has been 5.27%. Tumin noted that the indicators turned out to be better than the Central Bank's forecast, and the slowdown in lending and the strengthening of the ruble created the basis for further weakening of loan conditions.

The expert pointed out the continuing risks to the economy: in the first nine months of 2025, GDP growth was only about 1%, while in 2024 the economy added 4.3%. According to him, high interest rates put pressure on investment activity and corporate lending.

Tumin recalled that the Bank of Russia had previously set a benchmark for an average rate in the range of 13-15% in 2026.

"This implies further gradual easing, but while maintaining sufficient rigidity to consolidate the disinflationary trend," he stressed.

The economist concluded that the economy is moving towards a gradual normalization of monetary conditions, which creates the basis for balanced growth in the coming years.

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On December 1, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the regulator was constantly in contact with Russian businesses, which helped them make timely changes to their policies, focusing on new trends, and making informed decisions. According to her, before each decision related to the key rate, the board of directors of the regulator analyzes all available data on the situation in the regions and in different areas.

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