Coveted island of discord: Taiwan issue has strained relations between China and Japan
Taiwan has unexpectedly become a point of contention for many, not only between the United States and China. The coveted and largest Chinese island has now led to strife between Tokyo and Beijing. The disagreement began with the words of the new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said during a parliamentary debate. The politician said that a possible military crisis in the Taiwan Strait would pose an "existential threat" that could force Japan to exercise its "right to collective self-defense." With these words, the Japanese leader confirmed Tokyo's readiness to participate in a potential anti-Chinese military coalition led by the United States in the event of a war for control of the island. China did not remain silent and made a number of harsh and no less impressive statements. Izvestia tried to understand the historical legacy of the two countries and the potential for a real armed conflict.
The red line in the Taiwan area
On the eve of the new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in the country's parliament that Tokyo could exercise the right to self-defense in the event of an escalation of the conflict over Taiwan. Given the sensitivity and sensitivity of the topic for Chinese society and the authorities, Beijing's response was not long in coming. A harsh presentation by the Chinese Foreign Ministry followed, and Consul General in Osaka Xue Jian even threatened to "chop off the head" of the Japanese prime minister on his page on the social network X (banned in the Russian Federation). This post was later deleted by its author, but waves of indignation swept through Japan. A real "holy war" for history has begun in the social networks of the two countries. The Chinese began to recall the behavior of the Japanese, who responded similarly. And the Chinese Foreign Ministry officially declared that "Tokyo has crossed a red line." It is worth bearing in mind that the statement by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi was the first time in history when Tokyo took such a hostile position towards China on the issue of Taiwan.
Sanae Takaichi
Few people outside Asia remember, but Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945. But the Chinese and Japanese themselves are well aware of this dramatic period of history. For the Chinese, this is an era of shame and tragedy, for the Japanese, it is the glorious and heroic pages of the empire's greatness. And since 1949, Taiwan has been governed by its own administration, when the remnants of the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek, who were defeated in the Chinese civil war, fled to the island.
Since then, Taipei has retained the flag and some other attributes of the former Republic of China, which existed on the mainland before the Communists came to power. According to Beijing's official position, supported by most countries, including Russia, this is one of the regions of the People's Republic of China. At the same time, separatist sentiments are very strong on the island itself. Most Taiwanese, especially young people, are convinced of the inevitability and necessity of complete independence from communist China.
It is quite difficult to recall two other countries in the world that would have such close cultural and civilizational ties, but would be in such tense relations. The history of Sino-Japanese relations is very rich, but at the same time it is overshadowed by a large number of conflicts, wars, occupations and massacres. The two countries have taken a lot from each other culturally and religiously, but this has not prevented them from becoming historical enemies, and sometimes irreconcilable enemies.
The general history of wars, conflicts and massacres
The first modern major conflict between the two countries occurred in 1894-1895. The Chinese Empire, which was falling and on the verge of collapse, was defeated by Japan, which was growing and undergoing modernization along the American and partly German lines. In 1937-1945, weak and torn apart by internal contradictions, China became a convenient target for powerful, aggressive militaristic Japan, an ally of the Third Reich.
Japanese infantry, China, 1938.
In China, this conflict is called the War of Resistance of the Chinese People against Japanese Aggression, and in the world — the Sino-Japanese War, which was part of the Second World War. The Japanese Imperial Army openly used chemical and bacteriological weapons, committing numerous war crimes on Chinese territory. The infamous Nanjing massacre in 1937, when several hundred thousand Chinese were killed by the Japanese military, became a severe trauma for Beijing and an insurmountable obstacle in relations between the countries. The memory of humiliation, massacre and reprisals against civilians is deeply rooted in modern China. Consequently, official propaganda, media, and Chinese cinema, which has become very popular in the country and in the Asian region, show the Japanese and Japan exclusively from the negative side. And modern Chinese, including children, even practice hand-to-hand combat techniques on mannequins dressed in Japanese uniforms.
In Japan, the attitude towards the Chinese is no better. Beijing is shown in Japanese media and pop culture exclusively from the negative side. The Japanese show modern China as an aggressive communist society that actively arms itself and steals technological developments from Japan and the United States.
In short, relations between Beijing and Tokyo can be described as hostile, and broad sections of the population in both countries treat their neighbor with great distrust, and sometimes with contempt.
The oligarchs are against
Andrey Ostrovsky, chief researcher at the Center for Modern China at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, drew attention to the fact that the military and political potential of the two countries is very different.
— China's potential is much greater. And the United States is determined to contain China economically, not militarily," he stressed.
The expert doubts that the current escalation will lead to a military conflict, and considered that it should be considered in the context of the long and historically justified dislike of the two countries and peoples.
— By and large, neither Japan nor China is interested in a military conflict. But exacerbations do occur from time to time. As for the Taiwan issue, it can only happen when the island declares its independence," the expert noted.
Chinese and Japanese media are actively writing about a possible conflict between the two countries. A common place in the publications is that China, despite the growth of its military potential, is currently experiencing internal economic and social difficulties — it would be risky to open a new front under such conditions, Japanese media write.
At the same time, the Chinese emphasize that Japan, although it is building up its defense power, is lagging far behind, and geographically extremely vulnerable: an island that depends on sea supply routes and which the Chinese navy can easily block. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that Tokyo has a powerful ally in the United States, which has several military bases on Japanese territory.
Alexey Mukhin, director of the Center for Political Information and military expert, agrees with the thesis that China and Japan are not going to fight each other. According to the expert, Takaichi's words should not be taken so seriously in Asia.
— The Japanese oligarchs, who pay politicians and for politics, are deeply integrated into the Chinese economy, and they do not benefit from a full-scale war with Beijing. Therefore, loud statements are statements, but the real policy is completely different. The Japanese business has a significant presence in China. The escalation of the situation will continue, but without an open major conflict," he concludes.
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