Island of importation: Taiwan wants to deepen military cooperation with the United States

Taiwan is counting on deepening military cooperation with the United States, the island's defense ministry told Izvestia. Yesterday it became known that Taipei will additionally allocate $40 billion to create a powerful air defense system to protect against Chinese UAVs and missiles. In addition, the US Senate passed a bill to review long-standing restrictions on official contacts with Taiwan, while visits even by third parties to the island provoked a harsh reaction from Beijing. What could lead to an escalation around Taiwan, an island that is listed in Chinese legislation among other provinces of the country, according to Izvestia.

Taiwan strengthens its defenses

The Taiwanese authorities expect to deepen military cooperation with the United States, the island's Ministry of National Defense told Izvestia.

— The Department of Defense welcomes all U.S. actions aimed at strengthening our defense and security. We look forward to deepening our military exchanges (mutual visits and monitoring of military exercises. — Izvestia) and cooperation on a solid basis. The United States continues to provide for our defense needs in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Guarantees," the department said.

Taipei is already receiving intelligence resources and technology from the United States. Thanks to them, any military activity of mainland China, including exercises, is monitored on the island and their further actions are assessed. In April 2024, the United States and Taiwan conducted joint naval exercises in the western Pacific Ocean. For obvious reasons, they were not officially announced.

Washington, apparently, is also ready to sell all the necessary weapons to the island. The day before, it became known that the Taiwan administration is forming an additional military budget of $ 40 billion for the purchase of weapons from the United States.

"This landmark package will not only finance significant new arms purchases from the United States, but will also significantly enhance Taiwan's asymmetric capabilities. By doing so, we seek to strengthen defense deterrence by introducing more costs and uncertainty against the background of Beijing's decision—making on the use of force," said Lai Qingde, head of the island's administration.

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According to him, the island is faced with the task of creating an air defense system with multi-level protection T-Dome to protect the population from missiles, drones and combat aircraft of the PRC. Earlier, he announced plans to increase the defense budget to 3% of GDP in 2026, and to 5% of GDP by 2030.

Last week, Washington confirmed the sale of NASAMS air defense systems to Taiwan worth almost $700 million, and even earlier, the parties agreed to supply fighter jets and aircraft parts for $330 million. In October, Taipei announced plans to purchase four advanced Patriot PAC-3 MSE anti-aircraft missile systems. In total, according to Chinese military experts, the volume of US military supplies to Taiwan has exceeded $70 billion in recent years. Such financing is carried out under the auspices of two documents specially adopted in the United States at the end of the 20th century: the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Guarantees Act.

At the same time, the transfer of particularly powerful weapons to Taiwan by the United States could provoke an acute conflict with China, so it is unlikely that the Pentagon will take such a step, Sergei Lukonin, head of the Chinese economic and political sector at the IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.

— I do not think that the United States will supply any more powerful weapons, because this could probably lead to a potential clash. And neither the United States nor China want this," the expert says.

Will the Taiwan issue escalate

A week ago, the U.S. Senate approved a bill to review long-standing restrictions on official contacts with Taiwan. In fact, this is another step towards allowing the first and second officials of the state to make public visits to Taipei. For more than four decades, Washington's laws have limited the ability of officials to interact with their Taiwanese counterparts.

The signing of this bill will not automatically lead to a sharp increase in the level of contacts between Washington and Taipei, since the final word will remain with the US administration, Anna Voloshina, a researcher at the ISSA RAS, noted in a conversation with Izvestia. At the same time, Washington is officially committed to the "one China" principle. That is, the White House did not recognize the island's independence under either the Republicans or the Democrats. Nevertheless, the US actions are aimed at creating the greatest number of points of tension around China that could be pressed to limit China's development, Sergei Lukonin believes.

"However, this year, the Trump team took a "tactical breather", avoiding excessively "loud", provocative steps for Beijing in the Taiwan direction, so as not to undermine the course of negotiations on trade and economic issues with China," Voloshina recalls.

Russia has repeatedly called the West's actions towards Taiwan, including pumping up the island with modern weapons, an example of supreme cynicism against the background of its declared commitment to the concept of "one China."

Obviously, such a bill was not approved in Beijing, so it is likely that it could become the subject of discussion during the recent telephone conversation between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the Chinese leader said that Taiwan's return to China is "an integral part of the post—war international order" formed during the joint struggle of the United States and China against "fascism and militarism."

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The tense situation around Taiwan has continued since Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited the island in early August 2022. China, which considers the island part of its territory, condemned her visit, regarding it as the United States' support for Taiwanese separatism, and conducted large-scale military exercises.

Something similar happened this year, when on March 30, the head of the US Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, completed his first trip to Asia, where he visited Manila and Tokyo. The head of the Pentagon vowed to strengthen the US military alliance with the Philippines in order to "restore deterrence" to counter "Chinese aggression" in the Asia-Pacific region. In Tokyo, Hegseth called Japan an indispensable partner in deterring the military aggression of communist China, including through the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing's response was not long in coming. On April 2, the Chinese military launched the Thunder in the Strait 2025A exercise near Taiwan to practice pinpoint strikes on the island's port and energy infrastructure. Interestingly, Tokyo recently decided to openly support the United States if the situation around Taiwan escalates into an armed conflict. Sanae Takaichi, the new prime minister of Japan, said Tokyo could intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Despite such public attacks, there is likely to be no military action in Taiwan in the near future, Sergei Lukonin believes.

— It is clear that mainland China will not take any military action against Taiwan, and there will probably be an escalation if the Americans take some aggressive actions, according to China. Then mainland China, of course, will not give up the possibility of a blockade, conducting naval exercises or flying some drones over Taiwan. But these are quite local events," the expert clarifies.

This is largely why American officials are hesitant to make public visits to Taiwan today — neither side is interested in an armed escalation, Anna Voloshina agrees. She recalled that Taiwan is a leader in the production of advanced microchips, with up to half of the world's container fleet passing through shipping routes near the island. Therefore, any "emergency situation" around the island would be a serious blow to the global economy.

"Expert centers put forward hypothetical estimates — according to Bloomberg, the global economy's GDP could decrease by 5% in the event of a blockade of the island and by 10% in the event of a military conflict," the expert explains.

However, the United States will continue to promote its initiatives to strengthen relations with Taiwan, especially in the military and security spheres. In the future, although this will increase friction over the Taiwan issue and general tension in the Taiwan Strait, the parties will not go for an open confrontation, Voloshina sums up.