The economist estimated the chances of bringing inflation back to 4% in 2026

In Russia, achieving inflation of 4% in 2026 remains questionable. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia on November 24.

According to him, the formally high key interest rate — above 12% — really reduces consumer demand, but inflationary pressure in the economy is now connected not only with the behavior of buyers.

"There are a number of factors that may hinder the achievement of the 4% target: accelerating price growth in certain sectors, increasing the tax burden, increasing the cost of logistics and raw materials, as well as the weakening of the ruble, which directly affects the cost of imports and production costs of companies. These factors create inertia, which is difficult to remove quickly with monetary instruments alone," Astafyev explained.

The economist stated that the current anti-inflationary measures are generally effective, but they are not enough to achieve the target level in a sustainable manner. He pointed out that a stable return of inflation to 4% would require a combination of tools, from supply support to stabilization of the foreign exchange market and predictability of tax policy. Only a combination of monetary and structural measures will allow us to get closer to the goal within the specified time frame, the expert concluded.

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On the same day, Alexey Zabotkin, deputy chairman of the regulator, told TASS that the Bank of Russia expects inflation to return to the target of 4% in 2026. According to him, this level will allow "with some delay" to reduce the rate to more acceptable indicators compared to the experience of two years.

On October 28, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, announced that inflation would fall to the target level of 4% in the second half of 2026. According to her, the current annual price increase was about 13%. By the middle of this year, it had noticeably slowed down. As a result, annual price growth reached 6.4% in the third quarter. It is specified that inflation has become two times lower than at the peak of last year.

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