The expert spoke about the impact of the OPEC+ decision on world oil prices

OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production in November will have a moderate impact on global prices. The market has already taken into account the October quota increase, and the short-term price reaction will depend on the volumes and signals of the cartel, including the trajectory for the fourth quarter and the beginning of next year. This was announced on October 1 by Evgeny Shatov, partner of Capital Lab.

"If the eight OPEC+ member countries do confirm another increase in the November production target next Sunday, the market will react to the scale of the step relative to the already announced October increase in production by 137 thousand barrels per day and to signals on the trajectory for the following months," the expert noted.

Shatov stressed that the short-term price reaction will be asymmetric. A small increase will almost certainly give a limited downward momentum, while a more significant increase in production — up to 0.3–0.4 million barrels per day — may lead to a noticeable pullback in Brent and WTI prices. However, consensus forecasts for the end of the year remain subdued.

"According to the monthly OPEC Oil Market Report (MOMR), global demand growth in 2025 is estimated at 1.3 million barrels per day, and non-OPEC market supply is close to 0.8 million barrels per day. With moderate levels of production growth from OPEC+, the balance does not look excessive, which limits the scope for a long-term "bearish" trend. A separate risk for the bulls may materialize if the cartel begins to rapidly increase volumes for the sake of market share, then by the spring of 2026 the balance may shift towards a surplus," Shatov said.

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Speaking about the consequences for Russia, the expert stressed that the moderately growing supply within OPEC+ and stable demand open up an opportunity for Moscow to tactically increase its share in Asian markets. However, the final financial effect will depend on the net selling price, taking into account logistics and discounts.

Shatov concluded that Russia benefits from a gradual increase in production: this keeps prices above levels at which discounts and freight eat up revenue, and maintains coordination with partners in the Middle East. A more aggressive recovery in production may make it easier to hold positions in Asia, but the risk of lower prices will make the result for the budget neutral or even negative.

The US Department of Energy raised its forecast for the average cost of Brent crude oil in 2025 by 0.86% to $67.8 per barrel from $67.22 per barrel. At the same time, the agency predicts that Brent quotes will fall from $68 per barrel in August to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year due to growing global reserves as OPEC+ oil production increases, according to a report from the ministry's Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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