Close all: The United States is preparing for a government shutdown on October 1
On September 25, it became known that US federal agencies are developing a strategy to reduce staff due to a possible shutdown (government shutdown) from October 1. It is noted that what is happening is connected with the non-adoption of the budget by Congress. American media reports that on September 29, Trump will meet with congressional leaders. For more information about a possible shutdown, as well as its possible consequences, see the Izvestia article.
Complete abolition of posts
The White House Office of Administration and Budget (OMB) has sent notifications to US government departments, according to which they need to prepare plans for mass layoffs and layoffs of employees. This is due to the possible shutdown of the federal government on October 1, when the new fiscal year begins in the country. This was reported by the Politico newspaper on September 25, citing informed sources. The American media writes that on September 29, Trump will meet with congressional leaders due to the threat of a shutdown.
If the government's funding is not extended, federal agencies may close indefinitely.
It is reported that in the event of a government shutdown, in addition to the dismissal of employees, programs and projects that do not meet the priorities of US President Donald Trump will also be closed. At the same time, regardless of the onset of the shutdown, programs for social insurance, medical care and support for veterans will continue to work. Funding for the army, law enforcement agencies, and migration and border control services will not be stopped.
It is also important to note that in previous years, in a similar situation, staff were sent on unpaid leave until funding was resumed. Now we are talking about the complete abolition of posts and programs.
In order to avoid a shutdown, Congress has two options.:
— The adoption of a bill on short-term financing, called the Permanent Resolution (CR);
— Approval of 12 separate funding bills for the entire year.
Donald Trump spoke about a possible shutdown on September 20 due to the Senate's rejection of the bill on government financing.: "We will continue negotiations with the Democrats, but I think this could lead to the country being closed for a while."
US President Donald Trump
At the same time, according to AP, the Democrats refuse to provide the necessary number of votes to take measures on financing. Democrats demanded that Republicans sit down at the negotiating table to discuss the issue of extending subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which was reduced as part of the Temporary Expenses Act passed in March 2025. Republicans insist on adopting a budget without any additional provisions.
The bill, which was voted on on September 19, provided for budget financing until November 21. 48 senators opposed it, 44 voted for it.
Natalia Sudakova, Deputy Director of ISKRAN, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education, told Izvestia that the process of adopting budget legislation for the next fiscal year in the United States is always accompanied by a lengthy process of approving appropriations bills by both houses of Congress, which is not always completed by the time the new fiscal year begins. Under these conditions, the probability of a shutdown remains until an interim agreement on financing the government is reached.
If not now, then later
The American political scientist Malek Dudakov drew attention to the fact that no one is interested in the shutdown. At the same time, neither side is going to retreat, which is why there is no compromise. The expert also noted that both parties will try to gain advantages from the current situation: the Democrats, according to Malek Dudakov, will try to show that the Republicans and the Trump administration are not capable of governing the country; the Republicans, in turn, will represent the Democrats as the party of chaos, which refuses to vote for the budget.
The expert also does not rule out that the suspension of the government in 2025, if it happens, could break the record of 2019. In this context, it is important to understand that eventually one of the parties will make concessions. At the same time, according to Malek Dudakov, the Democrats have a vulnerable position, so the Republicans and Donald Trump will put the squeeze on them.
Maxim Cherkashin, a junior researcher at the Center for North American Studies at the IMEMO RAS, added that in the event of a shutdown on October 1, its consequences will depend on how the markets react to it. In the short term, judging by the practice of previous years, the shutdown of the US government will have no significant effects. However, due to high interest rates and long-term bond yields, stock markets may experience a shock that may require the Fed's intervention.
"If the Fed starts a new round of quantitative easing, it will most likely re—start inflationary processes, which will make it difficult to lower the key rate in the future and may lead to difficulties financing the government's work next year, or even to a debt spiral," the expert notes.
Maxim Cherkashin also recalled that usually shutdowns do not last long because they negatively affect the popularity of the party that caused them. This time, the Republicans, according to the interlocutor of Izvestia, are unlikely to be able to pin the blame on the Democrats. Therefore, if a compromise is not found before October 1, it will appear soon after. In this case, most of the negative consequences are likely to be avoided.
In the context of the possible consequences of the shutdown, Natalia Sudakova notes that they will primarily be associated with a decrease in public confidence in the ability of American politicians to solve the problems of the population and, as a rule, do not have a significant impact on the economy.
— For example, the shutdown of the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 led to the fact that the GDP indicator for 2019 was only 0.02% lower than expected. The decline in economic activity was mainly due to a reduction in aggregate demand, which led to a slowdown in private sector activity, as well as delays in federal spending on goods and services, the expert notes.
Shatdowns in the USA: a history
The suspension of the government in the United States occurred more than 20 times, two of which fell during the first presidential term of Donald Trump. The last shutdown began on December 22, 2018 and lasted until January 25, 2019, thus becoming the longest of all (35 days). The reason for this was the reluctance of the Democrats to allocate funds for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico, which Donald Trump insisted on. At that time, it was reported that the country's economy had lost at least $6 billion.
On January 20, 2018, the government shut down due to the Democrats' demand to include immigration measures in the country's interim budget, which Republicans opposed. On the 22nd, Trump signed a draft resolution on temporary financing of the government until February 8. On the night of the 9th, his term expired and a new shutdown began, which ended on the same day with the signing of the law on the main parameters of the budget for 2018-2019 and temporary financing of the government until March 23.
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