The volume of resignations: the shutdown will help Trump to clear the state apparatus of disloyal

The threat of a shutdown loomed over the United States again. The government may cease its work if Congress does not pass a budget bill by October 1. Donald Trump plans to use this to his advantage: to start mass dismissals of civil servants, purging the state apparatus from people sympathetic to the Democrats, experts believe. They estimate the probability of a shutdown above 50%, noting the intensity of the political struggle between Republicans and Democrats. About how government spending on healthcare has become a stumbling block in approving the budget and why Trump is angry at part of the American bureaucracy, calling it a "Washington swamp" and a "deep underground" — in the Izvestia article.

How can Trump use the shutdown for his own purposes

The White House is preparing to implement plans for the mass dismissal of civil servants, according to American media. This may happen if Democrats and Republicans fail to jointly adopt a budget by October 1, after which the federal government will suspend its work. US President Donald Trump has publicly announced the possibility of a shutdown in the country.

— We will continue negotiations with the Democrats, but I think that the country may be closed for some time. We will take care of the armed forces, we will take care of social benefits," he said, adding that in the event of a shutdown, "many things that the Democrats are fighting for will not be paid for."

The probability of a government shutdown is really high. On September 19, the Senate had already rejected two budget bills, and Trump himself later canceled a planned meeting with Democratic congressional leaders, expressing doubt about its productivity. With the onset of the shutdown, many officials go on unpaid leave and not all of them will be able to return eventually, American journalist Malek Dudakov told Izvestia.

— If a shutdown happens, the Trump administration will try to take advantage of this in order to clean up the deep state in a natural way (the term deep state, or "deep state" is used in the United States in relation to that part of the bureaucracy — employees of the special services, the State Department, ministries that continue to work regardless of the change of president. — Ed.). Even if some officials are not fired, they may lose their jobs in the structures where they work. This will be a big political victory for Trump," the expert believes.

Political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko is also convinced that Trump is using the shutdown to sweep the state apparatus.

"Over the past eight months, the Trump administration has roughly understood who is breathing what, who is loyal, and who is not very loyal," he told Izvestia.

This time, instead of sending officials on administrative leave, the presidential administration is simply going to cut jobs in those programs that do not meet the priorities of Donald Trump, Politico reports, citing an internal memo that the White House sent to government agencies.

The current US president has been talking about his desire to "drain the Washington swamp" and shake up the American bureaucracy for a long time. He calls the "deep state" a stratum of middle and high-ranking officials who, because of their position, can sabotage the decisions of the head of state or change them almost beyond recognition. In his two presidential terms, Trump has consistently fought against disloyal individuals. For example, in 2018, Trump decided to deny access to classified information to the former heads of the FBI and the CIA, who groundlessly accused him of having ties to Russia. After coming to power in 2025, he did the same to top Biden administration officials — former Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, former National Security adviser Jake Sullivan.

"In order to drain the swamp and root out the deep underground, we need to simplify the possibility of firing unruly bureaucrats who deliberately undermine democracy or at least want to keep their jobs," Trump said back in 2022.

He also complained that the process of dismissing a number of civil servants can take almost 15 years due to the complex system of appeals by those people who are trying to resign.

Obviously, now Trump will try to fulfill his desires by taking advantage of the shutdown. The director of the Office of Administration and Budget, Russell Vaught, who replaced Elon Musk as the de facto head of the Department of government Efficiency, is dealing with this issue. It was he who, in response to a possible shutdown, is preparing plans to dismiss a number of federal employees, Egor Toropov, an American researcher at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, recalled in a conversation with Izvestia.

"A political intellectual and a committed ideologue, Wout is less public than Musk, but at the same time a more experienced figure from a bureaucratic point of view in implementing the key Republican ideology of reducing the federal government by strengthening the executive branch of government and the personal political will of the president," the expert believes.

At the same time, if Congress successfully passes the budget bill before September 30, then no cuts will occur.

Why Democrats and Republicans can't agree on a budget

In modern history, the United States has often faced the threat of a shutdown. Since 1977, the government has stopped its work more than 20 times. The longest period was 35 days, from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019, during Trump's first term as president.

Despite the fact that neither Republicans nor Democrats are interested in the shutdown, today none of them is going to give up in the fight for the budget, Malek Dudakov notes. The Democrats, being in the opposition minority in all branches of government at least until the beginning of 2027, use the deadline for adopting the budget to put pressure on their opponents, adds Egor Toropov.

Experts estimate the probability of a government shutdown at more than 50%.

"Right now, the knockout rate of the political struggle is very high, and the United States has very serious economic, financial, and debt problems, so this whole shutdown will worsen,— Dudakov explains.

The key issue that the two sides cannot agree on is the amount of government funding for health insurance for Americans. Democrats are demanding an increase in health care spending and the allocation of $350 billion to extend subsidies for the Obamacare program. They also want to cancel the $1 trillion cut in spending on the federal Medicaid program, which pays for medical expenses for the poor, the disabled and other socially vulnerable people. Republicans oppose such spending.

If a shutdown does happen, opponents will try to use it to their advantage, Dudakov is sure. Democrats will accuse the Trump administration of being unable to govern the country, while Republicans will present their opponents as a party of chaos that refuses to vote on the budget and blocks its passage in Congress. According to the expert, the impending shutdown, if it happens, could break the record of 35 days due to sharp disagreements between the parties.

It is important for the Trump administration to have time to implement its plans before the parliamentary elections in 2027. Then the Congress may come under the control of the Democrats, which will significantly complicate Trump's work, concluded Egor Toropov.

At the same time, a shutdown usually has a number of negative consequences. The main one is that thousands of civil servants go on unpaid leave and lose their salaries. Air traffic controllers and law enforcement officers, who have to work for free, have the worst time of all.

Small businesses and individuals are at risk of facing loan repayment problems, which exacerbates the already difficult economic situation. One of the unpleasant consequences of the shutdown is the closure of national parks or the unavailability of basic services on their territory.

The partial suspension of the government's work is causing serious damage to the entire economy — according to experts, in 2013 these losses amounted to about $24 billion. And the 2019 shutdown, which lasted a record 35 days, cost the American economy $11 billion.