Russians were told about the impact of the rate cut on the real estate market

According to analysts' expectations, on September 12, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will lower its key rate, and probably immediately by 2 percentage points. The rate of 16% will certainly revive mortgage activity, but the withdrawal of funds from deposits, which may follow, will have a more significant impact on the market. Alexander Chernokulsky, director of Zhilfond, told Izvestia about this on September 11.

The real estate market is now sensitive to even minimal changes. So, after the reduction of the key rate at the end of July, according to Zhilfond analysts, in August the company noticed an increase in the number of requests from buyers — by an average of 10-15% in different branches of Zhilfond compared to a month earlier. At the same time, both July and August are usually months of declining activity for the real estate market due to the holiday season. This dynamic indicates a trend towards market recovery as a result of monetary policy easing.

"We are already seeing a recovery trend, although mortgage rates are still at a fairly high level, housing loans at 19-20% cannot be called affordable in any universe. If the Central Bank reduces the rate again, especially immediately to 16%, the mortgage will become a little cheaper, and this, of course, will create additional demand for real estate. However, the market is likely to be able to absorb this wave without any special consequences: there are many offers on the secondary market. However, the process has an additional factor — money on deposits — and it should not be underestimated," Chernokulsky said.

Banks are in the black: they earned a trillion despite the risks

A significant crisis of the banking system is not visible even in the conditions of a slowdown in the economy

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as of August 1, 2025, the amount of funds deposited by Russian citizens amounted to 64.22 trillion rubles. At the same time, only 6.7 trillion of them are money held in escrow accounts, and 57.5 trillion are deposits from the public.

The director of the Zhilfond company noted that for the purchase of all unsold new buildings in the country, Russians will have enough interest on deposits for a year. In addition, banks are already preparing for a possible capital outflow. In early September, major banks, despite the forecast for a reduction in the key interest rate, reported an increase in yields on long-term deposits, which, in his opinion, indicates an attempt to keep this money in accounts.

"Of course, not all deposit holders will go to buy apartments as soon as deposit rates go down. And even this is impossible: all deposits have their own deadlines. However, a decrease in deposit yields will lead to a gradual outflow of funds from this sector. Russians are used to trusting classic investment formats, and some of their savings are likely to be shifted "into brick and concrete." I think that as a result of increased demand, we will see a significant increase in prices," concluded Chernokulsky.

A look into the future: The Central Bank presented four scenarios for the development of the economy

The regulator has kept the July macro forecast unchanged

On September 6, VTB Chairman of the Management Board Andrey Kostin announced a downward trend in the key interest rate in Russia. He stressed that now the movement of this indicator will only occur downwards, however, he clarified that the final decision is still made by the Central Bank of Russia.

Also, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, said that he expects a reduction in the key rate. According to him, the conditions for this process have already developed in Russia.

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